Quote:
Originally Posted by rbanerjee23
Well in that case I have a newfound respect for Shanahan's/Allen's prescience -- I also didn't realize it was okay to throw away a season to wait for a new QB. They should have told the people who bought tickets for the games
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1) it's not prescience to be evaluating 1-2 years ahead of what positions might be better to draft this year, and what might be better next year. The same could be said this year, when the draft is supposed to be deeper then the past few in defensive backs, and that happens to be a position of need.
2) evaluating talent often is a negative result more than it is a positive, meaning: do we want to pay price x(10th overall pick, or 8.5 Million existing contract, or FA asking 30mill over 2 years) for this player's talent level. If the answer is no then you roll with what you have and try to scheme around it.
Putting these two points together, you can see one(or more) rational explanation that doesn't rely on MS psychic abilities.
During evaluation phases, MS,KS, BA and scouts looked at all the pro and college qbs available in the off-season leading up to last season. They looked at a known quantity of Rex (ie with Rex will get us between 6 and 10 wins), along with a potential qb in Beck. Hindsight really does show us that the assessment of most of last years draft class was correct, and that they would not have presented long or short term gains over that, while this year, even had we won the top out number there would have been several candidates with better upside.
I don't think any of this logic is more or less than what a fan would reasonably expect of a solid FO trying to present both the best possible short term, and the highest upside long term.