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donofriose · 02-07-2013, 08:58 AM

Buyer beware free agents according to Pro Football Focus.

Cary Williams

If reports are to be believed, Williams bet on himself by turning down a three-year, $15 million contract from the Ravens last year. Two postseason interceptions, to go with four in the regular season (along with 11 pass deflections), might suggest that was a wise move from Williams.

But watching the tape a little closer doesn't leave you quite as impressed. Williams gave up 39 first downs in the regular season and six more in the postseason, meaning his combined 45 first downs surrendered were the second highest of all cornerbacks. He wasn't a shutdown corner but rather someone teams moved the chains on. He may be looking for top cornerback money, but teams shouldn't be fooled into thinking he is one.

Laron Landry

On the back of what ended up being a Pro Bowl season, Landry has positioned himself to get paid. He won't be taking a hometown discount with the Jets because in his eyes his stock is at an all-time high after he proved he could handle the rigors of an NFL season by playing 96.6 percent of the Jets' defensive snaps.

Only the tape doesn't back up his performance. Eighty-eight tackles represent a big number, but his 4.7 run stop percentage was only 14th among safeties despite his spending 46.2 percent of his snaps in the box. He also got beat for 16 first downs and four touchdowns, the 11th-highest number of all safeties in coverage. Sure Landry can put a big hit on a receiver at times, but don't let those big plays fool you. He's not an elite, difference-making player, and he misses too many tackles (his 13 were 12th highest among safeties).

Sean Smith

There are times when I watch Smith and think he can be an elite cornerback; there are other times when I watch him and think he shouldn't even be on the field. For proof, no cornerback gave up more combined first downs and touchdowns than Smith's 46.

Smith started the season playing well but finished poorly, reminding us how badly he played in 2011 where he had the second-lowest coverage grade of all cornerbacks. Smith is as talented as he is inconsistent, and for that reason teams should be hesitant to part with the big bucks for him.

Dustin Keller

If you were building an ideal tight end, he'd probably look a lot like Keller: explosive and able to do damage with the ball in his hands.

Yet all too often he's not a mismatch, and with the way he blocks, ensuring the Jets can't use him as an every-down tight end, he really needs to be more of a playmaker in the receiving game. This season he picked up only 1.48 yards per route run, a number that if he had run enough routes to qualify would have ranked tied for 15th with Martellus Bennett, a much more complete player.

Keller is capable, but there's too much inconsistency in his game for him to be relied upon and given big money.

02-07-2013, 08:58 AM	#13
donofriose The Starter Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 2,097	Re: 2013 Free Agents Buyer beware free agents according to Pro Football Focus. Cary Williams If reports are to be believed, Williams bet on himself by turning down a three-year, $15 million contract from the Ravens last year. Two postseason interceptions, to go with four in the regular season (along with 11 pass deflections), might suggest that was a wise move from Williams. But watching the tape a little closer doesn't leave you quite as impressed. Williams gave up 39 first downs in the regular season and six more in the postseason, meaning his combined 45 first downs surrendered were the second highest of all cornerbacks. He wasn't a shutdown corner but rather someone teams moved the chains on. He may be looking for top cornerback money, but teams shouldn't be fooled into thinking he is one. Laron Landry On the back of what ended up being a Pro Bowl season, Landry has positioned himself to get paid. He won't be taking a hometown discount with the Jets because in his eyes his stock is at an all-time high after he proved he could handle the rigors of an NFL season by playing 96.6 percent of the Jets' defensive snaps. Only the tape doesn't back up his performance. Eighty-eight tackles represent a big number, but his 4.7 run stop percentage was only 14th among safeties despite his spending 46.2 percent of his snaps in the box. He also got beat for 16 first downs and four touchdowns, the 11th-highest number of all safeties in coverage. Sure Landry can put a big hit on a receiver at times, but don't let those big plays fool you. He's not an elite, difference-making player, and he misses too many tackles (his 13 were 12th highest among safeties). Sean Smith There are times when I watch Smith and think he can be an elite cornerback; there are other times when I watch him and think he shouldn't even be on the field. For proof, no cornerback gave up more combined first downs and touchdowns than Smith's 46. Smith started the season playing well but finished poorly, reminding us how badly he played in 2011 where he had the second-lowest coverage grade of all cornerbacks. Smith is as talented as he is inconsistent, and for that reason teams should be hesitant to part with the big bucks for him. Dustin Keller If you were building an ideal tight end, he'd probably look a lot like Keller: explosive and able to do damage with the ball in his hands. Yet all too often he's not a mismatch, and with the way he blocks, ensuring the Jets can't use him as an every-down tight end, he really needs to be more of a playmaker in the receiving game. This season he picked up only 1.48 yards per route run, a number that if he had run enough routes to qualify would have ranked tied for 15th with Martellus Bennett, a much more complete player. Keller is capable, but there's too much inconsistency in his game for him to be relied upon and given big money.