If you were Vinny, what would you do to keep your job?

[KI Skins Fan]

If it is true that Vinny Cerrato and Jim Zorn must make the playoffs next season to keep their jobs, then what would you do to improve the team if you were in their shoes?

I’ve looked at Schneed10’s excellent Salary Cap Status – 2009 thread (I’m not going to summarize it here, so you may need to read it yourself to follow along) and, if I were Vinny or Jim, I’d make most of the moves that he mentioned but I would go further because I would need to feel that I had addressed the things that were most likely to cost me my job.

We can’t count on a new CBA, so we need to deal with putting next year’s team together with the salary cap the way it is right now. Schneed10 projects the Skins to be $0.6M under the cap after making the moves he foresees. Those moves include cutting Marcus Washington and salary reductions for Jason Taylor and Shawn Springs. That’s obviously not enough money to address our most critical needs in Free Agency and I don’t think that we can count on any drafted player to fill a critical need next season, so more cuts or trades will need to be made if V&J are to keep their jobs.

There aren’t that many places to look to free up cap space. As it turns out, some of the players who could be cut or traded are injury prone and injuries are a major factor in a team’s success or failure. If a player can’t stay on the field, then he is not going to help the team to get to the playoffs. So, I would not re-sign Shawn Springs and Cornelius Griffin, thus saving $6.7M against the cap. They may be our best CB and DT, respectively, but if they’re not on the field, it doesn’t matter.

With Phillip Daniels coming back, Jason Taylor will probably be used as a hybrid LB/DE or, worse, as a part-time DE. I’d pass on that a $4.0M price tag (assuming he accepts a salary reduction). By not re-signing him, we save another $4.5M.

With the projected emergence of the young WR’s and TE, we could also release James Thrash and Todd Yoder, thus saving another $1.6M.

Those moves would put us $13.4M under the current salary cap.

Now what do we do? First, we desperately need a RT to protect JC. I’d sign FA RT Stacy Andrews. Second, we need a solid DT. I’d sign FA DT Rocky Bernard who has much of the same skill set as Griffin, only he’s younger, healthier and, therefore, more productive. Thirdly, if there’s enough cap space remaining after those signings, I’d try to pick up a FA LB.

If there is a new CBA and, with it, an increase in the salary cap, then I’d go after FA LB Karlos Dansby to replace Marcus Washington.

We need a game breaker. So, in the draft, I’d select Percy Harvin (I assume he’ll be in the draft) who could be our “Slash” as a PR/KR/RB/Slot Receiver. Yes, I know we need to draft linemen, and we will. But first, I need to keep my job. So, we’re bringing in proven, but still young, FA players to fill our greatest needs and drafting a home run hitter to help us score more points.

[Schneed10]

Good analysis of the numbers, I always love to see that. This is one of the many combinations of moves the Skins could make to get well under the cap for a free agent run.

Of course, the downside is you're turning over at the following starting positions:

- OLB, Washington
- CB, Springs
- DE, Taylor
- DT, Griffin
- RT, Jansen/Heyer

And then if you don't resign Kendall and go with somebody younger, you're turning over at LG, too. That's a lot of turnover and change for someone looking to save their job.

If Vinny is indeed on the hot seat (and I want to emphasize that's just rumor at this point), then he's caught between a rock and a hard place. If he's got just this one season to save himself, it's a pretty tough choice to make:

- Do I turn this roster over for fear that they'll be too old/inept to compete this season, thereby taking the risk that so much change will result in a learning curve and a tough year?

- Or do I stick to my guns and ride the players I have in the hopes that continuity will help Zorn take the next step, taking the risk that my players will be too old?

If it were me, I'd dance with the girl I brought to the ball. I'd keep the roster intact, fill it out with a little bit of depth and youth through the draft, and hope that the team rebounds.

Why? Well, is Randy Thomas just old and done, or was it his neck (disc problem) that held him back? Maybe he bounces back. Is Jason Taylor old and a poor fit for this system, or can Blache get more out of him in a season free of calf injuries? Can Phillip Daniels come back and make a difference as an interior pass rusher on 3rd down?

If I'm Vinny I'm playing the cards I was dealt, and betting that the same players that took us to the playoffs in 2007 under Gibbs can do it again under a 2nd year of Zorn.

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Of course, the downside is you're turning over at the following starting positions:

- OLB, Washington
- CB, Springs
- DE, Taylor
- DT, Griffin
- RT, Jansen/Heyer

You don't really believe that Springs, Washington, and Griffin will be healthy enough to make a difference next year, do you? They'll each play four games healthy, four games hurt, and miss eight games. That is not acceptable.

Jansen/Heyer = Disaster at RT. You may fear too much change, but surely you would agree that this position must be improved, wouldn't you?

Taylor would need to play much, much better next season to be worth the money. I seriously doubt that he will.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

You don't really believe that Springs, Washington, and Griffin will be healthy enough to make a difference next year, do you? They'll each play four games healthy, four games hurt, and miss eight games. That is not acceptable.

Jansen/Heyer = Disaster at RT. You may fear too much change, but surely you would agree that this position must be improved, wouldn't you?

Taylor would need to play much, much better next season to be worth the money. I seriously doubt that he will.

First on RT, I totally agree an improvement is needed. Jansen can't pass block and Heyer can't run block. Simple as that. That's one position where I'd absolutely make my move, and would probably use the first rounder on it.

On Washington I totally agree he's too injury prone and not effective enough. That's why I have the team cutting him in my cap thread.

On Springs, I don't agree. Springs was STILL the best CB on our team last year when healthy, and I don't see any chronic medical conditions that would lead me to believe he'll be unhealthy next year. Remember, just last year he played all 16 games for us. If you have arthritic knees or something that will nag you all season, that's one thing. But to have an acute calf injury to a guy who stays in shape with the best of them and to say he'll be hurt all year - there's no reason that's accurate.

On Griffin, they gu misses a few games each season, has for the past five years. I could go either way on him. On one hand it's not like he's missing tons of time, but on the other he does get hit with nagging things which he plays through, but reduces his effectiveness. But you can't argue with his ability to clog running lanes, he's still a big reason we ended up doing so well against the run. I really don't see how a Rocky Bernard is an upgrade, other than the health factor.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

First on RT, I totally agree an improvement is needed. Jansen can't pass block and Heyer can't run block. Simple as that. That's one position where I'd absolutely make my move, and would probably use the first rounder on it.

On Washington I totally agree he's too injury prone and not effective enough. That's why I have the team cutting him in my cap thread.

On Springs, I don't agree. Springs was STILL the best CB on our team last year when healthy, and I don't see any chronic medical conditions that would lead me to believe he'll be unhealthy next year. Remember, just last year he played all 16 games for us. If you have arthritic knees or something that will nag you all season, that's one thing. But to have an acute calf injury to a guy who stays in shape with the best of them and to say he'll be hurt all year - there's no reason that's accurate.

On Griffin, they gu misses a few games each season, has for the past five years. I could go either way on him. On one hand it's not like he's missing tons of time, but on the other he does get hit with nagging things which he plays through, but reduces his effectiveness. But you can't argue with his ability to clog running lanes, he's still a big reason we ended up doing so well against the run. I really don't see how a Rocky Bernard is an upgrade, other than the health factor.

Was not Heyer not the starting RT when in the begining of the season when we could run the ball and winning games?

[MTK]

Originally Posted by firstdown

Was not Heyer not the starting RT when in the begining of the season when we could run the ball and winning games?

No, Jansen was starting when the running game took off and Heyer couldn't get back into the lineup.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

First on RT, I totally agree an improvement is needed. Jansen can't pass block and Heyer can't run block. Simple as that. That's one position where I'd absolutely make my move, and would probably use the first rounder on it.

Or sign Vernon Carey. But yeah RT is definitely an area that needs improvement. Jansen isn't going to get any better, and Heyer is probably destined to be a strong backup

On Washington I totally agree he's too injury prone and not effective enough. That's why I have the team cutting him in my cap thread.

Agreed, but they are really hurting in the LB department. I'd like to see them go after Dansby in free agency. Short of that, I do like Sean Witherspoon out of Missouri as a mid-round pick if we can secure some extra picks. Getting him would mean moving Rocky to the SAM, which could actually be the best fit for him anyway. It will be interesting to see what the Redskins might attempt to do with Alfred Fincher.

On Springs, I don't agree. Springs was STILL the best CB on our team last year when healthy, and I don't see any chronic medical conditions that would lead me to believe he'll be unhealthy next year. Remember, just last year he played all 16 games for us. If you have arthritic knees or something that will nag you all season, that's one thing. But to have an acute calf injury to a guy who stays in shape with the best of them and to say he'll be hurt all year - there's no reason that's accurate.

The team is better when he's on the field, whether it's at safety or at cornerback. I think his fragility is overrated, but we do need to start taking into account his age.

On Griffin, they gu misses a few games each season, has for the past five years. I could go either way on him. On one hand it's not like he's missing tons of time, but on the other he does get hit with nagging things which he plays through, but reduces his effectiveness. But you can't argue with his ability to clog running lanes, he's still a big reason we ended up doing so well against the run. I really don't see how a Rocky Bernard is an upgrade, other than the health factor.

I wish we had another strong interior defensive linemen to line up with Montgomery as the starter then make either Daniels or Griffin the backup. A solid veteran who can play a few downs a game but not someone we need to count on to carry us for the majority of the game or season

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

Taylor would need to play much, much better next season to be worth the money. I seriously doubt that he will.

So restructure him.

[irish]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

So restructure him.

Why would JT want to restructure? There's nothing in it for him except less $.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by irish

Why would JT want to restructure? There's nothing in it for him except less $.

He's already admitted he's not worth $8M, so the Skins should either cut him or make play for less, or give him something like a 2 year deal worth $8M so he can at least have a reasonable cap figure and still earn his dough.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by irish

Why would JT want to restructure? There's nothing in it for him except less $.

Nice understanding of the salary cap you got there, Irish. Three year deal with $8 million up front to sign would get his cap number down to about $3 mill a year.

[BigHairedAristocrat]

If I werre VINNY, I'd sign a number of veterans aged 29 and up to contracts that would make them uncutable for atleast 2-3 years. Then I would trade a 2010 1st round pick for a 2nd round pick this year and a 2nd round pick next year for a 3rd round pick this year.

This would:
1) Allow me to upgrade the team NOW; and
2a)Make the the team less attractive for someone who would potentiall replace/fire me if hired by Snyder in 2010 (ie, why would Bill Cowher/Mike Shanahan/Mike Holmgren come to a team with a bunch of old veterans AND no high draft picks?)
2b)Increase the likelyhood that I keep my job a 3rd year, if for no other reason than Snyder would not be able to find anyone who wanted to take my position.

[redsk1]

Originally Posted by BigHairedAristocrat

If I werre VINNY, I'd sign a number of veterans aged 29 and up to contracts that would make them uncutable for atleast 2-3 years. Then I would trade a 2010 1st round pick for a 2nd round pick this year and a 2nd round pick next year for a 3rd round pick this year.

This would:
1) Allow me to upgrade the team NOW; and
2a)Make the the team less attractive for someone who would potentiall replace/fire me if hired by Snyder in 2010 (ie, why would Bill Cowher/Mike Shanahan/Mike Holmgren come to a team with a bunch of old veterans AND no high draft picks?)
2b)Increase the likelyhood that I keep my job a 3rd year, if for no other reason than Snyder would not be able to find anyone who wanted to take my position.

This could happen w/ VC.

[The Goat]

Originally Posted by redsk1

This could happen w/ VC.

Jeez, you think?

[SmootSmack]

Well the first problem is that I don't know if anyone (outside of Vinny and Danny) know exactly what it is that Cerrato has to accomplish. Is is it make the playoffs? Win the division? Make the NFC Championship game?

Secondly, the temptation is to throw all your chips into 2009 (2010 and beyond be damned). But suppose you make the playoffs, but then completely tank in 2010 does that just mean you're losing your job in 2010?

There has to be a balance of turnover and continuity. How that's achieved is something I'll need to think over and get back to you