JLC's crystal ball

[MTK]

The Crystal Ball

As I've said before, I'm not big on predications, but as we stand a week away from the start of the 2007 NFL calendar, and the goodness March 2 brings with it, I figured I'd weigh in on some fairly educated guesses about what's to come in Skinsland. I have done a fair amount of reporting the last few weeks , and while it is still too early to get a great read on certain situations, well, what the hell. It's a blog so I'll play a few hunches and we'll see how this shakes out.


I am sure some of you out there will be keeping score, and by all means, please do. By mid-March we can all sit back, review this post and I'll let you guys dole out my grades. Of course, much of this is still in flux, and at any time in the next week all it would take is one phone call and the entire tenor of certain negotiations could change. So with that caveat in mind, here goes:


GUYS WHO WILL BE CUT: I see them releasing Hall, Patten, Vincent, Fauria (this list does not include free agents who the team does not intend to pursue, like Wright, Holdman). Some within the organization are counting on Wynn and Daniels coming back, but I think Renaldo could be in jeopardy of being cut. He and Daniels have heard nothing from the organization and there have been no attempts to restructure yet.


FREE AGENTS WHO WILL BE BACK (and the Skins don't have many FA of any sort): I would be stunned at this point if Dockery is re-signed before March 2. Now, they could still end up getting him out on the open market, but unless the Skins really raise the figures they are exchanging, my peeps tell me what's being offered now is not in the range to get Dock to forgo free agency. He's looking to see what's out there at this point. I'd put the odds on him coming back around 50-50 right now, while stating, again, that there is ample time for this to change.


Other than that, Jimoh will be back for around the minimum. They have expressed an interest to re-sign Pucillo, who actually was quite valuable, and I believe they'll get that done. I would be surprised if Fox is not re-signed, and Posey is a possibility, too. They also want to keep Todd Wade, but know it is a long shot at best. From what I heard, Wade is intent on playing the free agent market and for good reason - the dude is huge, had a great game in his only start and is over his knee problems. Several Redskins were very impressed with him in practice all season, believing he could play RT in the league no problem, and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't get that chance.


GUYS THEY ARE TRYING TO RESTRUCTURE: As I've said all along, it looks like Springs is going to be getting paid someplace else next season. Barring a major reversal in the tone of that negotiation when the sides meet at the combine, I believe he will be gone by June at the latest. There is a lot of work to be done with Brunell as well, but I think he will ultimately agree to a stripped-down contract and be back at a much more manageable cap number. From everything I have heard, Lloyd and Arch Deluxe are safe and have been informed of nothing to the contrary. Coaches are banking on both being back.


FREE AGENTS THEY WILL PURSUE. London Fletcher will be priority No. 1 from everything I have heard (if he's not in the building the day free agency opens, I'd be floored). Lemar has been beaten up playing in the middle and there are concerns that at his size he will not hold up there. They believe that if used situationally (wasn't sure this was a word at first; then assured it was), they could max his skills. He will get a lot of work on the strong side with Marcus coming back from serious hip surgery this offseason, and the expectation is that Rocky takes hold of the weak side. Fletcher has been a warrior and is very durable. He does all the dirty work and knows this system inside out (remember, the original idea here all along was for a "super-smart" vet, Mike LB to lead this defense (Barrow, Mike), and Fletcher fits the bill.


They love Nate Clements too and will make a play for him, but are not positioned to compete with teams sitting on $25 million of cap space to sign him, and some within the organization concede they may not be able to get their man this time. Smoot has earned very favorable reviews during internal discussions, and if he is cut I would be stunned if he does not get an immediate call from the Skins. The Skins also have fairly good internal scouting reports on Dre' Bly, and while they don't necessarily love him, the duo of Smoot and Bly might be able to fill some of the void if Springs leaves as expected.


I would not rule them out making calls to Patrick Kearney and Chris Kelsay as well, but again, are probably not in position to land them. They will explore those options, but plan on addressing the D Line (and its overall lack of youth) in this draft in a big way. They will look at several tight ends as well - maybe Eric Johnson in San Fran. They need a competent pass catching compliment to Cooley, and while Kyle Brady doesn't fit the bill in that regard, he could at least fill Fauria's shoes cheaply.


THE DRAFT: There is a strong sentiment by some within the organization that they should trade down. Of course, it takes two to tango and the reality is that such a deal is highly unlikely to take place until the week before the draft at the earliest,. and even then probably when the team is actually on the clock. There is a hope Adrian Peterson or another offensive star will slip out of the top 5, and someone will be willing to step up to get him. The Skins would love get a pick in the 18-25 range, plus pick up a second rounder and maybe even something else. If they stay at 6, the emphasis will be on a pass rusher, with Adams and Anderson atop the best available. If you put a gun to my head today - and obviously we're a ways off from anything actually happening here - I say they trade down and still address the D Line with their early picks.


There is a consensus that overall this entire offseason is about the defense. The Skins have about as much money guaranteed to their QBs, RB's WR and O Line as any team in the NFL, and clearly need to improve the other side of the ball.


So there you have it. Again, none of this is written in stone, but it's my take on the scene as we stand right now. Oh yeah, and I'm thinking The Ugly Mug Sat. I'll post something Thurs. trying to get a head count of how many to expect. Hope to see as many of you guys there as possible (I'll be the dude who looks like the twerp in the picture in the left hand corner of your screen).



Link: The Crystal Ball - Redskins Insider

[dall-assblows]

i agree with most of what you said, but i think clements is #1 on our list.

[GTripp0012]

I'm guessing that his info on the draft is completely 100% speculative. It's hard for anyone to dig up any meaningful info on the draft espicially this early; JLC is no exception.

I don't know what he knows about Springs that we don't or who his sources are for that, but cutting Springs doesnt get us any cap room. I don't see how it could benefit this team.

Fletcher and Clements being our 1-2 makes a lot of sense. It's very possible we may not get Clements, but I think we will. I think Clements WANTS to be a Redskin, and if we offer something in the neighborhood of what hes asking for, he will sign very early in the FA process.

I like that the Skins appear to be interested in extra TEs, but I'm not sure Eric Johnson is the guy we are looking for. He's a better receiver than Fauria, but he's no better at blocking (which is pathetic).

All of the possible cuts make perfect sense. I think the potential cap hits will keep Arch and Lloyd here one more year, which is good because giving up on a young FA after one season is often a mistake. I don't see Lloyd getting any better as we have never seen anything from him to make us think he will, but Archuleta has been a high level player in the past, and I think one more year in the system will either show 2006 to be an abberation, or as the beginning of the end for the guy.

I agree that theres little chance Wynn and Daniels will both be back.

[MTK]

I don't get his take on Springs either. Unless the staff is convinced his injuries have taken too much of a toll on him, I don't see why they wouldn't want him back.

I do agree about Fletcher, I think he'll be one of the first guys at Redskins Park once free agency opens. I also agree on Clements, his price might be too high. It's not like we're one player away on defense, we have too many holes to fill to spend a ton on Clements.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I don't get his take on Springs either. Unless the staff is convinced his injuries have taken too much of a toll on him, I don't see why they wouldn't want him back.

Maybe JLC sources are telling him that Springs and his agent are refusing a restructure. It could be La Canfora's assumption that this means he's going to get cut (his comment about the date of his release being in June sounds like speculation). In reality, maybe is information is 100% right, and his assumption is wrong and Gibbs plans to keep Springs no matter what for one more season and cut him after the 2007 season ends (for cap relief). This at least seems plausible to me.

[Defensewins]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I don't get his take on Springs either. Unless the staff is convinced his injuries have taken too much of a toll on him, I don't see why they wouldn't want him back.

I do agree about Fletcher, I think he'll be one of the first guys at Redskins Park once free agency opens. I also agree on Clements, his price might be too high. It's not like we're one player away on defense, we have too many holes to fill to spend a ton on Clements.

It might be Springs high cap number in combination with the high amount of games he has missd here and Seatle in the last 5 years.

[hesscl34]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

I don't get his take on Springs either. Unless the staff is convinced his injuries have taken too much of a toll on him, I don't see why they wouldn't want him back.

I do agree about Fletcher, I think he'll be one of the first guys at Redskins Park once free agency opens. I also agree on Clements, his price might be too high. It's not like we're one player away on defense, we have too many holes to fill to spend a ton on Clements.

I don't agree with what he said about Springs either. He's a true Redskin. I don't see Gibbs letting him go. He'll finally be healthy this year....

[SkinEmAll]

THE DRAFT: There is a strong sentiment by some within the organization that they should trade down. Of course, it takes two to tango and the reality is that such a deal is highly unlikely to take place until the week before the draft at the earliest,. and even then probably when the team is actually on the clock. There is a hope Adrian Peterson or another offensive star will slip out of the top 5, and someone will be willing to step up to get him. The Skins would love get a pick in the 18-25 range, plus pick up a second rounder and maybe even something else. If they stay at 6, the emphasis will be on a pass rusher, with Adams and Anderson atop the best available.



Hmmm...Denver has the #21 pick.
They want Peterson.
Sooooo.....
They have two 3rd rounders, right? Including the one we gave up in the Duckett deal?
If they gave the Redskins their 1st, 2nd, and the 3rd rounder we gave up to them, it would be roughly equal to the #6 pick in draft value points.
What irony if this deal happened...


I like the sound of either possibility. although Im kinda leaning towards the extra picks. things that make you go hmmmmmmmm.....

[SmootSmack]

I like Bly, but I can imagine the backlash if he's signed "First we went after rejects from the Niners, and now the Lions?

[Pocket$ $traight]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

I like Bly, but I can imagine the backlash if he's signed "First we went after rejects from the Niners, and now the Lions?

I think that Bly, Rogers and Smoot is definitely a formidable secondary but how is Bly an upgrade over Springs?

As soon as they decide that Springs won't be back, I predict that he gets pinned as the leak to Friend's article immediately.

Add the JLC blog to Maske's rumor on 980 a while back and it is looking like Springs is gone.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Grim21Reaper

I think that Bly, Rogers and Smoot is definitely a formidable secondary but how is Bly an upgrade over Springs?

As soon as they decide that Springs won't be back, I predict that he gets pinned as the leak to Friend's article immediately.

Add the JLC blog to Maske's rumor on 980 a while back and it is looking like Springs is gone.

I suppose I could look for the link but I thought I remember reading or hearing that Friend explicitly said Springs wasn't the source.

And I don't think Bly's an upgrade over Springs, but a more cost efficient alternative to Clements perhaps

[Pocket$ $traight]

Originally Posted by TAFKAS

I suppose I could look for the link but I thought I remember reading or hearing that Friend explicitly said Springs wasn't the source.

And I don't think Bly's an upgrade over Springs, but a more cost efficient alternative to Clements perhaps

I know that Springs denied it and maybe Friend did as well. However, how could he own up to it during the season? It was already enough of a circus around there.

Most people assumed it was Arch and he is staying while it sounds like Springs is going.

I guess my problem with taking Bly over Springs is the unknown. We know that Springs (when healthy) is a pro-bowl quality corner in our defense. While you can assume that Clements would fit in well, you don't know. The same with Bly.

Bottom line, if our corners are Bly, Smoot and Rogers, we will be fine.

[Pocket$ $traight]

Article from the Post's Howard Bryant essentially repeating JLC's blog.

washingtonpost.com

Interesting that Branch wasn't mentioned.

[SkinEmAll]

Yeah I agree, that would be a good crew of corners. And this means I might be able to un-retire my Smooooooot jersey!!:headbange

[SmootSmack]

I'll admit the thought of the return of "Smootsmack" makes me want to smack my smoot, if you know what I mean!....no? ok then