In a Perfect World: A Look Back at the 'Skins Major Offseason Moves

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

In a perfect world, the Redskins front office would have: (1) known that the free agent market was about to be flooded with high-profile, quality quarterbacks and not lost a third round pick to acquire Mark Brunell; (2) known the draft order; and (3) not given up the league’s best cornerbacks for one of the league’s best running backs.

MARK BRUNELL

That said, immediately after we traded a third-rounder for three-time Pro-Bowler Mark Brunell, I criticized the move. I have no doubt that Mark Brunell, who has a career quarterback rating of 85, will be an excellent quarterback who will lead the Redskins to the playoffs, if not the Super Bowl, and I think that he will be a fantastic mentor to Patrick Ramsey.

However, Mark Brunell will be 34 years old this September and it is unlikely that he will be a quality starter for more than two to three years. Moreover, Brunell has a history of injuries and at 34, he’s likely to have more. Finally, we signed Mark Brunell to a seven year contract worth $43 million (including a $8.6 million signing bonus). Rams QB Mark Bulger, who at 27 years old is seven years younger than Brunell, signed a four year deal with the Rams this offseason for $17 million and a $9 million signing bonus.

Call me crazy, but I think we overpaid for Brunell’s services. To boot, we gave Jacksonville a high third-round pick for the trade and will incur a big cap hit when Brunell retires in 2006 or 2007. I said it then, I’ll say it now, and I’ll say it when we are in the playoffs – this was a bad move.

CHAMP BAILEY-CLINTON PORTIS

Last year I was speaking with a friend of mine about the ultimate fantasy team and I told him that I’d like to have Clinton Portis in my backfield. I have no doubt that Portis will break the 2,000 yard mark this season or next and he will make defenses think twice about blitzing on every down to crush our quarterback. For the first time in three years, our defense will be able to sit on the sidelines for more than 5 minutes at a time to rest and watch our running game wear down opposing defenses. In my opinion, Portis brings no fewer than three wins to our team.

Champ Bailey is a true player and man; he’s got class, heart, and the ability to shut down opposing wideouts on nine out of ten plays. It is also more difficult to find a good cornerback than it is to unearth a great running back.

However, simply because one quality type of player is harder to come by doesn’t mean that he’s worth more than a quality type of player that is easy to find. Bailey was beaten on numerous plays last year and may have lost a step and while he could control one side of the field, Clinton Portis will help the ‘Skins dominate the entire field, if not the entire game. Moreover, it was well known that Bailey did not want to stay in Washington to see how coach Gibbs panned out.

So, I said so long to Champ, hello to Portis, and I defended the trade as an overall good move on the part of the Redskins. Nevertheless, I think the ‘Skins would have been better off to trade Champ for say a first and third rounder (even if Champ is worth two first rounders). We’ve got major holes on the defensive line and we have numerous other less-glaring holes on both offense and defense. I’d have preferred to trade Champ to Minnesota (who has plenty of cap room to accommodate a big contract and a need at cornerback).

SEAN TAYLOR

I haven’t had the pleasure of watching much of Sean Taylor play in college, but I do know that he is special. Taylor will offset the loss of Champ Bailey in our backfield, scare wideouts running slant and crossing routes, and will be much cheaper to sign than say a wideout, running back, defensive lineman et al picked with the 5th overall pick.

However, as I said before the draft, I would have preferred to trade down to New England. Bill Belicheck was supposedly enamored with Taylor and if we could have pulled it off, I would have liked to have traded the 5th overall pick for New England’s two picks in the first round (picks 21 and 32).

As noted above, we have some big holes to fill on both sides of the field and could use an influx of young, relatively cheap (vis-à-vis free agents), and very good players.

THE RESULT

In sum, we lost Champ Bailey, a third rounder, a second rounder, and spent our 5th overall pick on Sean Taylor in order to gain Clinton Portis, Mark Brunell, and Sean Taylor. To me, that sounds like a push – we gained as much as we lost.

In retrospect, if I were the GM of the ‘Skins, I would have kept all my picks by trading Champ for two picks and picking up a quarterback in free-agency and I would have also traded down out of the 5th overall draft selection.

Knowing now how the draft played out, with all of the above mentioned picks, I would have drafted:

1. Steven Jackson #19 (for Bailey from Minnesota)
2. Kenechi Udeze #21
3. Jake Grove #32
4. Randy Starks #41
5. Derrick Straight #72
6. Chris Cooley #82 (for Bailey from Minnesota)

For me, the above seems to fill a lot more holes (even if they are with rookies), is more cap-friendly, and will make our team better with age, not worse (like the Brunell deal and the trading of our picks did).

[hurrykaine]

Great analysis Ramsey fan, but the caveat must be that instead of draft picks like Steven Jackson/Kevin Jones who are unproven at the pro-game, in Portis, we're getting a proven performer who is also a great blocker and has decent hands.

The Bailey trade has indeed left a hole in the secondary, but look for Smootie to be more dominant this year, and as you mentioned, Sean Taylor can go a long way in alleviating any weaknesses stemming from Bailey's loss.

As for the D-line, on paper it doesn't look like much, but a lot depends on how Greg Williams uses the personnel we have - last year Edwards could've done a lot better with the sorry line we had, had be been more creative with his schemes. Lavar and M. Washington can both get decent pass rush pressure on crucial downs (just watch some Colts games from the last two seasons). IMHO, the arguably the biggest upgrade to the skins (other than Gibbs coming back) this season has been in the Defensive Coaching staff - greg williams, Dale lindsey greg blache - these guys could be def. coords anywhere in the league. I say the addition of these defensive coaches is worth atleast 2 games.

As for Brunello di montaclino, hell yes we overpaid for him.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by hurrykaine

Great analysis Ramsey fan, but the caveat must be that instead of draft picks like Steven Jackson/Kevin Jones who are unproven at the pro-game, in Portis, we're getting a proven performer who is also a great blocker and has decent hands.

It’s true that Portis gives us a proven performer and that Stephen Jackson is far from a guaranteed success. But, remember that this difference is reflected in the two types of players’ contracts. We paid through the nose to get Portis whereas the Rams will pay a pretty modest price for the draft’s top back. The simple fact is that you can’t keep trying to get proven performers via free agency, they are too costly and if they blow out a knee you up sh-ts creek without a paddle.

[Riggo44]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

It’s true that Portis gives us a proven performer and that Stephen Jackson is far from a guaranteed success. But, remember that this difference is reflected in the two types of players’ contracts. We paid through the nose to get Portis whereas the Rams will pay a pretty modest price for the draft’s top back. The simple fact is that you can’t keep trying to get proven performers via free agency, they are too costly and if they blow out a knee you up sh-ts creek without a paddle.

I heard on PTI today that Jackson is holding out and that Martz is ready to move on without him. How modest did you say that contract would be??
I don't know but I,ll take Portis!!
I do think that we paid way to much for Burnell!!! I would rather have signed Jeff Garcia for free. But over all I like our moves.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Riggo44

I heard on PTI today that Jackson is holding out and that Martz is ready to move on without him. How modest did you say that contract would be??
I don't know but I,ll take Portis!!
I do think that we paid way to much for Burnell!!! I would rather have signed Jeff Garcia for free. But over all I like our moves.

It's a little early to say that Jackson is holding out, camp hasn't even begun, Martz will not move on without him, and his contract will be much, much, much cheaper than Portis'. I'm not saying Jackson will be the next Clinton Portis or that he will come dirt cheap. I'm also not knocking Portis (God knows I'm a huge fan). I also said in my original post that I like the deal and think Portis will do a TON to help both our offense AND the defense, I just don't think it is the best option we had.

[BossHog]

Sure enough. These draft picks look great on paper. We can't kick ourselves so hard, so fast because we don't know how these players' careers will turn out. This is where the team philosphy of building a team comes in to play. Why 'gamble' on having two first rounders who may not flourish as quickly as NFL players? I also believe a team has to build through the draft. Stephen Jackson has yet to prove he's even half of what Portis is now. He won't beat out Faulk as starter this year. In my opinion, Bailey didn't want to be here. Maybe his play last year was a reflection of that attitude. I thought we should have been compenstated a bit more in the Portis-Bailey trade. But, I'm still in favor. Questionable move number one was signing Springs. For the same money we should've had Winfield (didn't he play for G. Williams?) The only problem I have with aquiring Brunell 'a mentor' is the timing. We should've had a solid veteran in the mix with Ramsey two years ago! As far as trading down from number five, that would've been a good move. That may have set us up to pick guys such as Uddeze, Grove, and Starks at the expense of starting Ohalete and Bowen (still, not bad). A trade I thought was inevitable included Gardner. With Coles cemented in stone, Thrash and McCants signed, and Jacobs due to play... Why have all these WRs on the roster of a heavily used TE offense? Question number two. Do you think we will aquire another FA before training camp?

[memphisskin]

Love the draft class you proposed, but that team does seem a bit young for the plan that the Skins FO has been following.

Quick thoughts,

Portis/Bailey trade- Whatever. We could have used the 2nd round pick, but again is it enough to hold up on acquiring a back who's AVERAGED 1500 yds and 15 tds? Dallas is going with "Orange" Julius Jones because they didn't want to give up a 2nd rounder for Corey Dillon. We could have kept the pick and drafted Tatum Bell ourselves, but instead we get one of the top 5 backs in the league. Win-win.

Brunell for the 3rd rounder- We could have waited and I'm sure our price was more than any other team, but maybe Brunell would have wanted to go somewhere else. Again a high pick to lose, but now we have a veteran qb, and I like Gibbs' track record with qbs. I mean Mark Rypien won a SB MVP!

Sean Taylor - I've heard the talk that the 2nd safety off the board was pretty good too. And the K2 talk will heat up again if he has a monster year. But no matter. Taylor was compared to Ronnie Lott. Combine him with LaVar and you've got two heavy hitters on defense. I've seen Taylor play, the games I saw he was making plays all over the field. Blocking punts, returning punts, making hits, knocking down passes, intercepting balls, taking interceptions back for scores. He is a difference maker. We will love him. Big, fast, strong.

[Hogskin]

You are forgetting a major fact. Your draft list looks good to you on paper, but 75-80% of the drafted players NEVER live up to their potential, and most never pan out AT ALL. Repost this 10 weeks into the season, and see how it looks then.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by Hogskin

You are forgetting a major fact. Your draft list looks good to you on paper, but 75-80% of the drafted players NEVER live up to their potential, and most never pan out AT ALL. Repost this 10 weeks into the season, and see how it looks then.

I must respectfully take issue with the claim that 75%-80% of draftees do not live up to their hype. For player who does not meet expectations, you’ve got one who exceeds them. I would say that most early round picks pan out. Jessie Armstead, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Stephen Davis, Jeremiah Trotter, Rock Cartwright, Patrick Ramsey, and Darnerian McCants are just a few examples of Redskins (from various rounds) who I think exceeded expectations (if you consider where they were drafted and how they turned out).

You’ve got to draft well or you just can’t be a successful franchise for more than one or two years. I’m a firm believer in gambling on the draft. Also, don’t free agents represent a gamble? Dan Wilkinson, Dana Stubblefield, Marco Coleman, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter are just a few examples of huge free agent letdowns.

[Hogskin]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

I must respectfully take issue with the claim that 75%-80% of draftees do not live up to their hype. For player who does not meet expectations, you’ve got one who exceeds them. I would say that most early round picks pan out. Jessie Armstead, Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson, Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Stephen Davis, Jeremiah Trotter, Rock Cartwright, Patrick Ramsey, and Darnerian McCants are just a few examples of Redskins (from various rounds) who I think exceeded expectations (if you consider where they were drafted and how they turned out).

You’ve got to draft well or you just can’t be a successful franchise for more than one or two years. I’m a firm believer in gambling on the draft. Also, don’t free agents represent a gamble? Dan Wilkinson, Dana Stubblefield, Marco Coleman, Bruce Smith, Jeremiah Trotter are just a few examples of huge free agent letdowns.

WOW!!!! This one is WAY out there. Go through any season since the NFL started, and list 50% of the drafted players that YOU think lived up to their billing. You will have a tough time getting to 20%!!!

Now for the list of Redskins that you reeled off that exceeded expectations LOL. They were drafted over the past 15+ years, and most were not even DRAFTED by the Redskins. Take a look at THIS much longer list of ONLY REDSKIN draftees from the SIX (not 15) years ending 2002 that did NOT perform: Greg Jones, Jamel Williams, Keith Thibodeeaux, Twan Russell, Brad Badger, Skip Hicks, Mark Fischer, Pat Palmer, David Terrell, Antwaun Ponds, Nate Stimson, Derek Smith (the OL, not LB), Jeff Hall, Tim Alexander, Lloyd Harrison, Michael Moore, Quincy Sanders, Todd Husak, Delbert Cowsette, Ethan Howell, Sage Rosenfels, Mario Monds, Rashad Bauman, Cliff Russell, Andre Lott, Robert Royal, Reggie Cloman, Jeff Grau, Jeff Scott. And this was just REDSKIN drafts.

So lets look at a complete NFL 3rd round from a few years back, since a lot of your sure-things were in the 3rd round:
1 63 Travis Prentice Browns RB Miami (OH)
2 64 Lloyd Harrison Redskins DB North Carolina State
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi 49ers QB Hofstra
4 66 Ron Dugans Bengals WR Florida State
5 67 Mark Simoneau Falcons LB Kansas State
6 68 Erron Kinney Titans TE Florida
7 69 Dez White Bears WR Georgia Tech
8 70 Chris Cole Broncos WR Texas A&M
9 71 Darwin Walker Cardinals DT Tennessee
10 72 Kendrick Clancy Steelers DT Mississippi
11 73 Ron Dixon Giants WR Lambuth (TN)
12 74 Steve Warren Packers DT Nebraska
13 75 Chris Redman Ravens QB Louisville
14 76 J.R. Redmond Patriots RB Arizona State
15 77 Hank Poteat Steelers DB Pittsburgh
16 78 Laveranues Coles Jets WR Florida State
17 79 JaJuan Dawson Browns WR Tulane
18 80 Darrell Jackson Seahawks WR Florida
19 81 Reuben Droughns Lions RB Oregon
20 82 Leander Jordan Panthers G Indiana (PA)
21 83 Damion McIntosh Chargers T Kansas State
22 84 Ben Kelly Dolphins DB Colorado
23 85 Gregory Wesley Chiefs DB Arkansas-Pine Bluff
24 86 Jeff Ulbrich 49ers LB Hawaii
25 87 Dustin Lyman Bears LB Wake Forest
26 88 Doug Chapman Vikings RB Marshall
27 89 Corey Moore Bills LB Virginia Tech
28 90 Nate Webster Buccaneers LB Miami (FL)
29 91 David Macklin Colts DB Penn State
30 92 T.J. Slaughter Jaguars LB Southern Mississippi
31 93 Byron Frisch Titans DE Brigham Young
32 94 John St. Clair

Which half of that list provides the answers for their teams? Pick the second and third rounds from several seasons 3 or more years back (enough time to perform), and you will see that this extremely low success rate is consistent. It just ain't that easy to predict who is going to make it. Couch, McNabb and Akili Smith were picked ahead of Culpepper. Hell, Milt Plum and Ronnie Knox were drafted way ahead of Jurgy (4th round). There are massive numbers of examples.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

[QUOTE=memphisskin]Love the draft class you proposed, but that team does seem a bit young for the plan that the Skins FO has been following.QUOTE]

I like young teams, they tend to overperform for their price tags and all you can do is get better. Old teams tend to have a one or two year window of opportunity to make a run for the Lombardi and then either dismantle or fall apart from old age.

My answer to every NFL personnel problem is DRAFT, DRAFT, DRAFT and DRAFT well.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by BossHog

Why have all these WRs on the roster of a heavily used TE offense? Question number two. Do you think we will aquire another FA before training camp?

I thought the same thing about how heavily stacked we are at wideout. I was sure that Gibbs would orchestrate a trade for a TE or O-linemen using one of our wideouts. But, the good thing about Gibbs is that, unlike Spurrier, he’s going to use the talent he’s got to produce wins – even if that means adjusting your template bread-and-butter system (in Gibbs’ case a run-first offense).

I think that we will definitely acquire another free agent before or during training camp, but I don’t see us making any surprising splashes for a name-you-know free agent. We’re too close to the cap ceiling to get anyone noteworthy without restructuring a deal – like Chris Samuels’ (whose agent appears very unlikely to redo another deal in the midst of a Samuels’ slump).

Gibbs appears to have a lot of faith in coach Williams’ defensive scheme and ability to compensate for holes on defense. Unfortunately, I think Williams’ ability to compensate for such holes is VASTLY overrated. Williams had some awesome personnel last year and that is the main reason why the defense was rated #2 in the league. Does anyone remember that in 2002, the Bills offense was a powerhouse but the defense stank? Where was Williams’ genius then?

I’m not saying that Williams is not a very good coach – he is a very good coach. But he had plenty to work with in Buffalo whereas he has close to nothing to work with on our defensive line. I didn’t buy our linebackers compensating for a poor dline last year and I don’t buy it now. We need better ends and tackles period.

So even though I’d like to see a big name come into camp to help out our dline, I don’t think one will since we have placed too much stock into Williams.

[skinsfanthru&thru]

Originally Posted by Ramseyfan

Gibbs appears to have a lot of faith in coach Williams’ defensive scheme and ability to compensate for holes on defense. Unfortunately, I think Williams’ ability to compensate for such holes is VASTLY overrated. Williams had some awesome personnel last year and that is the main reason why the defense was rated #2 in the league. Does anyone remember that in 2002, the Bills offense was a powerhouse but the defense stank? Where was Williams’ genius then?

well its not we can fault him that they signed sam adams and takeo spikes last year. even with our weakness on the d-line, I still believe our defense is more talented than the group Williams coached last year so why wouldn't he be able to have similar results. plus other than adams, most of us probably couldn't name anyone on buffalo's d-line last year w/o looking it up,lol, but he still got them to produce as a collective unit with the rest of the defense to perform tremendously well. pretty much all he had last year was adams, spikes, and milloy.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by skinsfanthru&thru

well its not we can fault him that they signed sam adams and takeo spikes last year. even with our weakness on the d-line, I still believe our defense is more talented than the group Williams coached last year so why wouldn't he be able to have similar results. plus other than adams, most of us probably couldn't name anyone on buffalo's d-line last year w/o looking it up,lol, but he still got them to produce as a collective unit with the rest of the defense to perform tremendously well. pretty much all he had last year was adams, spikes, and milloy.

Pat Williams and Sam Adams are the only two guys on the Bills' dline that I can name without looking on Madden... But Pat Williams is pretty damn good and so is Sam Adams.

I think Greg Williams will improve our defense dramatically, but I don't think any coaching can mask the gaping hole we have up front. I didn't mean to imply that Williams isn't a good coach. I just think people are being too optimistic in thinking that he can make offenses forget that we have no front four.

[RedskinRat]

I wondered why you've been so quiet, Ramseyfan...