How many future HR's for Bonds?

[Crazyhorse1]

Bonds is still one of the top players in baseball and apparently has no intention of stopping any time soon. Next year's for sure and the year after wouldn't be a bad bet either. My feeling is that he's good for about 100 more dingers and will move out of A-Rod's reach.

If he gets as many as I think he will, the argument that his record is tainted will become muted. After looking at his HR totals year after year it seems to me that there is essentially an orderly progression of HR totals and only one quantum leap, the year his forty or so total jumped to 73.

It may well be that his steroid use accounted for dozens of HR's but not the 100 he's likely to beat his own record by. Another point to consider. It is generally agreed he hasn't been using for some time now. Why isn't he smaller? Why hasn't his bat slowed down?

My answer is that he is a phenomenally gifted and skilled player and the performances enhancers are only a small part of the story, much smaller than a lot of people suppose.

[hesscl34]

All I know is when my son watches him hit it, he learns from him. I hope he keeps hitting.. great to watch.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by Crazyhorse1

My answer is that he is a phenomenally gifted and skilled player and the performances enhancers are only a small part of the story, much smaller than a lot of people suppose.

Yeah I don't think performance enhancers are what made him great. He was already great regardless.

I think he'll end up with somewhere around 780-790 home runs, I think more toward 780. A lot will depend on whether or not he finishes his career as a DH. I don't think he will. I think he signs one more year with San Fran.

[dmek25]

right after he hit the record breaker, he told ESPN he still likes playing, and has alot more baseball in him. when i watch him run, it makes me cringe. never full speed, and when he does push it, he looks like he is about 834 years old. time for him to move on to the American league

[BDBohnzie]

Yep, definitely needs to jump to the American League to extend his career. He looks old when he plays Left.

However, you'd think the Giants would finally get some hitters in front of him in the lineup. 23 HRs this year, and only 53 RBIs...

[ArtMonkDrillz]

Originally Posted by Crazyhorse1

It may well be that his steroid use accounted for dozens of HR's but not the 100 he's likely to beat his own record by. Another point to consider. It is generally agreed he hasn't been using for some time now. Why isn't he smaller? Why hasn't his bat slowed down?

I guess one could argue that without the help of steroids the natural aging process could have caught up with him sooner and he'd have only been able to fit a small fraction of the homers that he's hit over the past 5+ seasons.

Personally, I don't think there should be an asterisk put next to his name in the record book because of the era and the fact that it's never been publicly proven that he's actually taken any performance enhancers. If they do put one next to his name they need to put one by any record that Roger Clemens, for example, gets because he's also been implicated in reports in the past. The same can be said for a ton of other players.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by ArtMonkDrillz

Personally, I don't think there should be an asterisk put next to his name in the record book because of the era and the fact that it's never been publicly proven that he's actually taken any performance enhancers.

Why do people keep saying this? Bonds admitted to the grand jury that he took "the clear" which is a steroid. He just said he didn't realize that it was a performance enhancing drug, he thought it was flaxseed oil.
So yes, it has been proven, it just hasn't been "proven" that he did it on purpose. (but we all know he did, and it will be proven that he did eventually.)

[dmek25]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Why do people keep saying this? Bonds admitted to the grand jury that he took "the clear" which is a steroid. He just said he didn't realize that it was a performance enhancing drug, he thought it was flaxseed oil.
So yes, it has been proven, it just hasn't been "proven" that he did it on purpose. (but we all know he did, and it will be proven that he did eventually.)

ok, lets say bonds admittingly took steroids. they were not against the rules that baseball had in place. so why all the outrage? do you think he was the only one? so, just because he is setting records, he is the one that gets penalized. what about roger clemens? there were NO rules in place to penalized ANYONE from that time frame. the owners and the players did what they had to do, to make baseball popular again. now they are paying the price

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by dmek25

ok, lets say bonds admittingly took steroids. they were not against the rules that baseball had in place. so why all the outrage? do you think he was the only one? so, just because he is setting records, he is the one that gets penalized. what about roger clemens? there were NO rules in place to penalized ANYONE from that time frame. the owners and the players did what they had to do, to make baseball popular again. now they are paying the price

Where did you get that from? There have been rules in places against taking steroids for many, many years. It just wasn't enforced with drug tests.

You keep bringing up Roger Clemens, and while I will agree, I do think he took steroids (how else do you have a 2.98, 1.87, and 2.30 era in consecutive seasons at the ages of 41, 42, and 43?) who is blaming him? But who has pointed their finger at Clemens? Who said, he for sure took roids? There is a plethera of people pointing at Bonds, or Sosa etc, but no one at Clemens. I'm not saying that means he's innocent, but it does show that Bonds is amazingly guilty.
You last sentence: "the owners and the players did what they had to do, to make baseball popular again. now they are paying the price" is dead on accurate. They killed baseball by allowing these things. This is why baseball is now my 3rd favorite sport behind Football and NASCAR.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

If he comes back next year I will say he will finish with a number like 812. But if this is his lat season I say 769-775 or so.

[firstdown]

He is done after this year.

[dall-assblows]

no he will DH for the yankees next season.

[Crazyhorse1]

Originally Posted by dall-assblows

no he will DH for the yankees next season.

Bond's on-base percentage is 495, which is one of the best in baseball and pretty much par for him. I don't think he's slowed down with the bat at all. I can't see him quitting until he's at least begun to slip. He hit another homer today, which gives him 24, in spite of the favorite way to take him on these days is still to walk him.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Crazyhorse1

Bond's on-base percentage is 495, which is one of the best in baseball and pretty much par for him. I don't think he's slowed down with the bat at all. I can't see him quitting until he's at least begun to slip. He hit another homer today, which gives him 24, in spite of the favorite way to take him on these days is still to walk him.

Well, remember "Hack a Shaq"? People would foul him cause he couldn't / can't hit his free throws...well, "Bean a Bonds". Put his giant head on base, cause he doesn't score as my stats show. He is useless on the paths now.

[Crazyhorse1]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Well, remember "Hack a Shaq"? People would foul him cause he couldn't / can't hit his free throws...well, "Bean a Bonds". Put his giant head on base, cause he doesn't score as my stats show. He is useless on the paths now.

You forget to mention that Bonds has nobody hitting in front of him to drive him in and nobody in front of him to get on base. Neither is his fault or a reflection on his play.

You might also mention that he has five stolen bases and has only 271 at bats, which means that his 24 HRS means he hits one about every eleven at bats. Also, his 56 RBIs mean he gets one about ever five at bats in spite of the fact that the Giants are famous for not putting a man on base ahead of him and the fact that the opposition usually walks him when men are on base.

Projected to 542 at bats, which most batters expect over a year, Bonds comes in with 48 dingers and 112 RBIs, Hall of Fame numbers.

The Shaq analogy doesn't hold. Shaq misses his free throws, Bonds scores from second. Nobody walks him because they think he can't score if put on base. They walk him because he's too dangerous to pitch to and because the batters batting behind him are much less productive than he is.