The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.

He wants FA on his own terms, and if the Skins try to FT him, he has said repeatedly he will sign it. From there it becomes a pissing match between Snyder and KC. KC would compete at training camp, but ultimately would Gruden have the guts to play KC over AS?

An aside note, if we did try this stunt, would AS and KC keep to the trade. A big part of AS' reason for not wanting to go to Cleveland was that he wants to be the guy. IF we franchise KC do you think AS goes to Reid and asks if the Denver trade was still a possibility.

[Schneed10]

I don’t think the tag would be applied without first coming to an understanding between Cousins and his destination of choice.

If no understanding can be reached then I don’t think the tag will be applied.

Macro is saying that the three parties could sit down prior to the tag deadline and hammer out terms. If Bruce can’t pull it off then I agree it would be silly to then still go about applying the tag.

[CRedskinsRule]

I still think it requires KC to be a "good" actor. And I can't imagine, based on his past comments about how he feels about the FT, that he would sign it, then not stay on this team and play out the tag. And then he would be a FA the next season.

But like Matty said, if the Skins pull it off, then bravo to them

[Schneed10]

The question is whether he’d rather collect $34M and compete w Alex Smith for the job, or be a good actor. That’s a choice he might be forced to make, and based on his stated desire to play for a winner, I think there’s a more likely chance he’ll come to the table.

[CRedskinsRule]

Every single sound bite for the last 3 years, when asked about the tag, KC has had the same response. If they tag me, I will sign it and play under it. At no time has he ever sounded inclined to take a team focused trade. Last year there were all the signs it was going to happen, but between KC and Snyder, it never came about. I don't think they are going to change their stripes and suddenly play nice.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.
...
If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?

Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

The question is whether he’d rather collect $34M

Well, I only compare the two dollar amounts per each of those theoretical deals: 34 million guaranteed for one year versus 90 million guaranteed.

I know which one I'm choosing.


I don't know why Cousins wouldn't want to negotiate with a team he wants to be with (assuming its Denver or whoever) for a guaranteed dollar amount that he also wants.

You mean he declines to go where he wants for what he wants just to go cray-cray with Bruce and Dan?

IDK.


I likewise don't know why he'd want to sabotage his own career by staying with the Redskins just so that he doesn't play for a year. That can only negatively affect his earnings in future years and jeopardize whether any team would actually give him a long term deal if/when he ever made it to the open market.


But ultimately none of that matters the second he signs the tag. Once he does that Bruce can sell him to ... I was going to Ottawa, I used Siberia previously. But I figured Bruce already explored the whole CFL angle, lol. (Joking).

So that's just it, at least for me, Bruce forces Cousins to the table with the tag, albeit begrudgingly: "tell me where you want to go, or I'll just throw a dart at a board."

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I don’t remotely agree that Cousins would be willing to sit for a year behind Alex Smith.

For 34 million and a chance to stick it to the Skins and become a UFA in 2019?

I just don't see how the risk is worth the reward for us. If we want to recoup the pick or picks as we basically need to replace the pick plus Fuller, we can simply trade down in the 1st or 2nd round.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by Macro

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

The whole thing seems like way too much effort all for like a 3rd round pick. There are easier ways to get more picks, mainly trading down in draft, that lets Cousins go where he wants and saves all the scrutiny from the media and fans. Plus our track record practically guarantees this blows up in our faces.

[skinsfan69]

With Smith on the books any chance of a trade went out the window. You're trying to save face and you can't at this point. Move on and be done with it.

[MTK]

Assuming all sides get on board what Macro is saying makes sense. Should be interesting to see what happens.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Every single sound bite for the last 3 years, when asked about the tag, KC has had the same response. If they tag me, I will sign it and play under it. At no time has he ever sounded inclined to take a team focused trade. Last year there were all the signs it was going to happen, but between KC and Snyder, it never came about. I don't think they are going to change their stripes and suddenly play nice.

He said he would sign it and play under it when Colt McCoy was the only other QB on the roster. I would contend that if tagged, he would sign it, but not at all be interested in playing on it now that Alex Smith is here. He's going to want out - he's not going to be interested in possibly losing a QB camp battle to Alex Smith.

[CRedskinsRule]

It all sounds like a fan's overarching ability to rationalize something that they want. It's never been done in the NFL that I know of, and maybe the Skins FO is just that smart to make it happen as laid out, ultimately the Skins are the only ones who really risk anything in that type of move.

If Denver promises, but backs out - they blame the Skins FO (rightly or wrongly) the Skins are stuck with KC on a tag, yes they could try to trade him to somewhere else, but who is going to trade for KC with his history of non-negotiation.

If KC signs the tag right away, but then decides that he really just wants to collect aroun 80 million total from the Skins for 3 years and walk into the sunset after this year. The Skins are stuck with no FA space.

If the Skins back out before the FT tag is signed, no one else is hurt.

Going into negotiations where you are the only one with possible negative consequences is to risky a move to put the franchise under.

Then you throw in an owner, who (supposedly) didn't want to give Kyle Shanahan any trade options, and I don't know why anyone would think that he would be happy to send KC anywhere he wants after paying him 40+Mil.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Macro

Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.

I'm impressed at your ability to think multiple moves ahead.

But I'm still struggling with why Elway would find it necessary to give up a 3rd rounder and Talib (or whatever the price is). I'm not convinced that Elway would feel the pressure to make that deal with the Skins. His reason for doing so would be to preclude other teams from coming to the Skins and making a trade offer, and from making a lucrative contract offer to Cousins.

But if Elway can establish via discussions with McCartney and Cousins that he has assurances that Cousins wants to be a Bronco, couldn't he tell Allen that the Broncos will play no part in a trade offer?

That then puts Allen in the position of deciding whether he's going to crazytown or whether he'll never apply the tag at all.

My concern is that at the combine, if you give Cousins the opportunity to meet with the Broncos and work out a contract, couldn't they have conversations that say listen I want to be a Bronco, give me that good deal and you won't need to trade picks to the Skins.

The key is preventing Cousins from having a discussion on contract like that with Elway without first getting an assurance from Elway that he would trade picks. As you say, I suppose if the Redskins can sequence the order of events properly, they can maintain the upper hand in discussions. They'd want those assurances from Elway, and then and only then would they allow Cousins permission to speak with them about a contract.

But man, it's a huge sequence of dominoes that have to fall just right. The Redskins have to think through it, set all the dominoes up, and make sure nobody's finger accidentally knocks one over too soon.

I hope you're right.