Next Year's Cap Situation

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

We are pretty much stuck with Archuleta, Lloyd, Randle El and Carter. Even with all of our cap room this year an 8 million plus hit for cutting any of the above guys (not that we'd want to cut Randle El) is just too much to swallow. They will all be Skins for the next two seasons guarenteed, and then maybe if we keep the cap space open, we can afford to cut 1-2 of those guys prior to 2009. Until then they have to stay on the 53 man roster, although if Arch and Lloyd continue to suck, we could make them inactive.

But you are absolutely right on one big thing: this defense needs a ton of fresh blood.

Of the defensive players we have right now, only the following are certain to be rostered come this time next year:

DE: Carter, Evans
DT: Montgomery, Golston
LB: Fletcher, McIntosh, K. Campbell
CB: Rogers, Smoot, Jimoh
S: Taylor, Arch, Fox, Doughty

You really can't make much of a defense out of that, and we simply aren't going to have the money to sign a starting caliber player. So any holes on that defense must be filled through the next two drafts. Obviously, that's gotta start with DT, but also DE and LB. CB and Safety are fine IF Carlos Rogers has a "rebound" season. It's a stretch to rely on him as a No. 1, but the only other choices we have would be to a) rely on Smoot as the No. 1, or b) draft a rookie CB with our 2nd rounder in 2008. If Rogers does pan out, we'll just have to address the nickel next year with, say maybe a 4th rounder.

Safety really won't be a problem unless Sean Taylor continues to play pass coverage with his head up his ass. Fox can start, but I'm going to gamble that Arch wins the starting job back.

I do have a feeling that they are going to keep Washington on board one more year than they should, but if they are wise, they will let his play in 2007 dictate whether he deserves to return.

The future is not looking too good on defense. I hope we have one hell of a draft in 08 and hit a home run w/ our pick this year.

Fox and Arch can not play full time. I think Fox is worse than Arch. Not sure what they see in him. So there is another need. I'm hoping Peirson P. comes back and plays well.

[Master4Caster]

You do good work GTRIPP. Thanks for the post. The Redskins are clever with the cap. That does not make them clever with the roster. There is a difference!

[That Guy]

if they can restructure and extend guys till the next cba, they'll be fine, though we've been and will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage while we maintain such a high level of deadcap and overhead on crappy players.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

if they can restructure and extend guys till the next cba, they'll be fine, though we've been and will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage while we maintain such a high level of deadcap and overhead on crappy players.

This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.

until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.

[firstdown]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I thought this would be an effective way to show how constantly restructuring can bite ones team in the balls.

I obtained all the following information from Canuck's Cap Sheets:

For the 2008 season, I removed the value of all players who are likely to be cut from the 53 man roster in this 2007 season. I came out with a total cap number of 119 million. The projected cap for 2008 is 116 million.

On the surface that seems fine. We were three mil over this year and cut some dead weight and restructured some guys and ended up about 10 million under. Not that hard right?

Heres the big issue. After removing 20 players who are likely to miss the 53 man roster in 2007 from the 2008 cap total, that leaves the Redskins with 33 players under contract for the 2008 season who combined are costing us more than the salary cap allows. In that 33, we do not have a Punter, a Kicker, or a long snapper.

Now, we still have to draft two classes worth of players and resign key guys like Cooley. So I estimate that 119 figure will be in the ballpark of 130 million before free agency next year. I am estimating that we will be adding about 9 players to that 2008 total before we hit FA next year (Cooley's new deal + First round pick this year + 3 day 2 picks this year + 3 or so guys to fill out this years roster [TE, LB, OG]).

So if my projections are to be accurate, we will have to free up 14 million in cap space (just to comply with the league office) by March 1st. There will be numerous veteran cuts and probably a few restructures. Not only are we going to have to free up 14 million, but most likely 20 million to put us 6 million under so we can fill out the remaining 9 roster spots PLUS a roster spot for every cut we make to get under the cap. The cuts will likely include any veteran whose net cap gain would net us 1.5 or more million.

-Brunell's contract automatically voids, saving us 3.5 million.
-If Springs makes it this far, cutting him saves 2.5 million.
-Cutting Griffin saves 1.5 million.
-Cutting Daniels saves 3.0 million.
-Cutting Marcus Wasington saves 2.5 million.
-If we get desperate, cutting Betts and Rabach save about 1.3 million each.
-Guys like Lloyd and Arch and Carter still deliever sizable cap hits, meaning they will be Redskins through 2008 guarenteed.

As always we can restructure or make post June 1st cuts to save even more money in 2008. To a degree, we will have to do some of this. We can only free up 13 million by releasing the top 5 guys on that list. We will be forced to restructure (or declare our cuts as post June 1) to free up the final 7 million.

But that 7 million is going to be pushed into future years, and the 2009 cap situation is going to be even worse than this abomidable 2008 one.

It is imperitive that we keep our entire slate of 2008 draft picks. We are going to need to capitalize on those picks to help fill those empty (presumably 14) roster spots. Draft picks are always cap friendly in their rookie years and that's the main source of talent this team will have.

The only way this is going to go down easy is if we win a championship this year. It's not like the 2008 team will be completely void of talent, but I'm near certain that guys like Washington, Daniels, Griffin, Springs, Brunell, Saleve'a, Wynn, Marshall, Collins and Prioleau will not be on the roster come this time next year.

So imagine our current roster without those guys on it. Those are the holes we need to fill in our next two drafts.

I really am not trying to be a doom bringer here, but I wanted to prep you guys as to what the future holds.

But hey, if you didnt like the way the FO was going about things, maybe you see this in a postive light (if you are seeing this in a positive light, ask yourself when the last time you saw your physician was).

You sound like one of those guys on ESPN who bash us all the time for how we do things and then most here complain about the fact we get no love.LOL Snyder and the front off have worked this cap every year and we hear the same stuff you have posted. I'll wait and see because I've heard this every year and it just never happens. Even if I'm not sure your right it was a good post.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.

Not drying up by any means. But what drove the growth over the last five years or so (which led up to the new TV deal) was an increase in TV ratings.

The more eyes watching TV, the more advertisers pay for the 30-second slots.

It'd be good if I could find some data and I'll try to do so, but I'm asserting that TV ratings aren't going to increase here in the US at the same rate that they've been increasing over the last few years.

The NFL could still expand TV viewership into Mexico, Europe, or Canada. That would spur growth, for sure.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

We are pretty much stuck with Archuleta, Lloyd, Randle El and Carter. Even with all of our cap room this year an 8 million plus hit for cutting any of the above guys (not that we'd want to cut Randle El) is just too much to swallow. They will all be Skins for the next two seasons guarenteed, and then maybe if we keep the cap space open, we can afford to cut 1-2 of those guys prior to 2009. Until then they have to stay on the 53 man roster, although if Arch and Lloyd continue to suck, we could make them inactive.

But you are absolutely right on one big thing: this defense needs a ton of fresh blood.

Of the defensive players we have right now, only the following are certain to be rostered come this time next year:

DE: Carter, Evans
DT: Montgomery, Golston
LB: Fletcher, McIntosh, K. Campbell
CB: Rogers, Smoot, Jimoh
S: Taylor, Arch, Fox, Doughty

You really can't make much of a defense out of that, and we simply aren't going to have the money to sign a starting caliber player. So any holes on that defense must be filled through the next two drafts. Obviously, that's gotta start with DT, but also DE and LB. CB and Safety are fine IF Carlos Rogers has a "rebound" season. It's a stretch to rely on him as a No. 1, but the only other choices we have would be to a) rely on Smoot as the No. 1, or b) draft a rookie CB with our 2nd rounder in 2008. If Rogers does pan out, we'll just have to address the nickel next year with, say maybe a 4th rounder.

Safety really won't be a problem unless Sean Taylor continues to play pass coverage with his head up his ass. Fox can start, but I'm going to gamble that Arch wins the starting job back.

I do have a feeling that they are going to keep Washington on board one more year than they should, but if they are wise, they will let his play in 2007 dictate whether he deserves to return.

Evans? certain to be on the roster?
I don't know the cap like you, but I was surprised you had him on that list. What is his salary/cap impact?

I've been thinking all offseason that he is an almost certain cut from a football standpoint. Wynn & Daniels are old but are solid run stoppers & team leaders, I think Gibbs will want to keep them if possible. Evans on the other hand, seems to have played his best already, but doesn't have the upside that Wynn & Daniels do. He doesn't make what they do either, but I still can't see him making the team once we sign 1 or 2 DE's from the draft.

Again, that's just my take from a football perspective, not cap related. All your cap analysis is greatly appreciated.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

Evans? certain to be on the roster?
I don't know the cap like you, but I was surprised you had him on that list. What is his salary/cap impact?

I've been thinking all offseason that he is an almost certain cut from a football standpoint. Wynn & Daniels are old but are solid run stoppers & team leaders, I think Gibbs will want to keep them if possible. Evans on the other hand, seems to have played his best already, but doesn't have the upside that Wynn & Daniels do. He doesn't make what they do either, but I still can't see him making the team once we sign 1 or 2 DE's from the draft.

Again, that's just my take from a football perspective, not cap related. All your cap analysis is greatly appreciated.

Well, certain from a cap perspective. Obviously if he can't make the team this year (like we find 53 more deserving guys), he won't be on it next year

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

2) And the big one, they have oodles of options to restructure players. In 2008, the following players are on schedule for more than a $4 million base salary (excluding Brunell cause he'll be outta here and Springs because of reasons already mentioned): Griffin, Washington, Samuels, Jansen, Thomas, and Portis. There's an opportunity to restructure all of these contracts and save up to $10-$15 million in 08 cap space just on restructures alone. Of course, as you say, we'd kick the hit into 09 and create more headaches down the road. And as I look at 2009, I can see that being the year we decide to either "sh*t or get off the pot" with our current core of guys. That would make 2008 our last year with our current core group. And it just so happens that 2008 is also the last year of Gibbs' current contract. But as for 2008, I can see the team creating plenty of space.

If we want to have any kind of foundation to move into 2009 and beyond, we need to trade down and hit on multiple picks now. And we need to keep our draft picks in the 08 draft, and hit on those as well. Because in 2009, we're quite possibly looking at saying goodbye to a few good players.

This is not to say the Skins won't be able to restructure and create more cap room in 2009. After all, at that point the cap should be about 125 million, which gives us leeway.

From my understanding of the numbers we have, I felt our "sh*t or get off the pot" year is coming up in 2008. Although it's going to be impossible to field a team w/o any restructuring that year, we already have a pretty rough cap situation in 2009. I'd have to run the numbers with a lot more projections and guessing to test this hypothesis, but I'm concerned that if we push too much more money into that year (either restructuring or big FA contracts), the sky will indeed fall in 2009. I feel that we have the power right now to take measures to avoid that. But to avoid the sky falling situation in 2009, concessions have to be made prior to 2008. Some at least. I'm sure one of us will look over the numbers for 2009 sometime down the road, and I may turn out to be totally and utterly wrong, but I just don't see the cap potential to pick up a solid starter in FA at any point over the next two years and still be able to get 51 contracts in under the cap including our draft picks.

And yes, the more I think about it Springs probably won't be a Redskin next year. These are the type of moves that will lighten the future burden. I know we need Griffin and Washington to be competitive next year, but I do feel that barring a pro bowl type year from either, restructuring them to keep them around for one more year would only breed more financial problems for that tricky 2009 season.

It's also interesting that we have pretty much the entire offense (Cooley being the exception) locked up with so much guarenteed money that we can't even afford to disassemble it. All the roster changes over the next three years are going to be defensive.

To be honest, I went into this analysis thinking the 2008 situation was going to be much much worse. But some key veteran cuts after this season will give us the cap space we need to at least stop the buck right here. I don't think this will prevent us from being competitive in 2008.

Unless Springs restructures, we won't be able to handle a 9 million dollar cap hit this year. If he does, I could see Lloyd or Arch getting the boot.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

From my understanding of the numbers we have, I felt our "sh*t or get off the pot" year is coming up in 2008. Although it's going to be impossible to field a team w/o any restructuring that year, we already have a pretty rough cap situation in 2009. I'd have to run the numbers with a lot more projections and guessing to test this hypothesis, but I'm concerned that if we push too much more money into that year (either restructuring or big FA contracts), the sky will indeed fall in 2009. I feel that we have the power right now to take measures to avoid that. But to avoid the sky falling situation in 2009, concessions have to be made prior to 2008. Some at least. I'm sure one of us will look over the numbers for 2009 sometime down the road, and I may turn out to be totally and utterly wrong, but I just don't see the cap potential to pick up a solid starter in FA at any point over the next two years and still be able to get 51 contracts in under the cap including our draft picks.

And yes, the more I think about it Springs probably won't be a Redskin next year. These are the type of moves that will lighten the future burden. I know we need Griffin and Washington to be competitive next year, but I do feel that barring a pro bowl type year from either, restructuring them to keep them around for one more year would only breed more financial problems for that tricky 2009 season.

It's also interesting that we have pretty much the entire offense (Cooley being the exception) locked up with so much guarenteed money that we can't even afford to disassemble it. All the roster changes over the next three years are going to be defensive.

To be honest, I went into this analysis thinking the 2008 situation was going to be much much worse. But some key veteran cuts after this season will give us the cap space we need to at least stop the buck right here. I don't think this will prevent us from being competitive in 2008.

Unless Springs restructures, we won't be able to handle a 9 million dollar cap hit this year. If he does, I could see Lloyd or Arch getting the boot.

I'm thinking Springs is the one that will be traded, and we'll ride into 2007 with both Arch and Lloyd.

But regarding the '08 cap, the Skins can easily clear the room in 2008, there are so many ways to restructure contracts to make that happen. But you're right, it will bring much pain in 2009.

But can you see the team releasing a bunch of veteran, core guys in Gibbs' last season under contract (2008)? No way, Jose. They'll restructure and keep the team intact for him. Then he'll gracefully exit knowing that 2009 is going to bring oodles of salary cap pain.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Unless Springs restructures, we won't be able to handle a 9 million dollar cap hit this year. If he does, I could see Lloyd or Arch getting the boot.

Just to note, cutting Lloyd or Archuleta would bring a $9 million cap hit, but they're already on the books for $2.5 million each. So the incremental hit is only $6.5 million. So if we cut one of them, that would eat up all but $3.5 million of our remaining space (assuming we have $10 million right now). We could fit rookies under $3.5 million.

But I still think that extra space is reserved for taking the Springs hit now, signing Bly, and signing rookies.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

But can you see the team releasing a bunch of veteran, core guys in Gibbs' last season under contract (2008)? No way, Jose. They'll restructure and keep the team intact for him. Then he'll gracefully exit knowing that 2009 is going to bring oodles of salary cap pain.

I think you are right, and this is what I'm afraid of.

[Bill B]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Just to note, cutting Lloyd or Archuleta would bring a $9 million cap hit, but they're already on the books for $2.5 million each. So the incremental hit is only $6.5 million. So if we cut one of them, that would eat up all but $3.5 million of our remaining space (assuming we have $10 million right now). We could fit rookies under $3.5 million.

But I still think that extra space is reserved for taking the Springs hit now, signing Bly, and signing rookies.

I would have to say you cut Arch Deluxe over Llyod. Although I am not a fan of either Arch Deluxe has a injured back and is done as a effective player - at least with Lloyd he is healthy and there is a chance that he can play somewhat effectively.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Bill B

I would have to say you cut Arch Deluxe over Llyod. Although I am not a fan of either Arch Deluxe has a injured back and is done as a effective player - at least with Lloyd he is healthy and there is a chance that he can play somewhat effectively.

I would go the other way if I had to make a decision. Here's why:

1) Archuleta is far more capable of earning a starting role, and thats at a position thats tougher to fill. Lloyd could play the third receiver, but we could probably get better production from James Thrash.

2) If both were to fail to earn starting jobs, Arch can play teams. Lloyd can't.