Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Huh?? Is this Trig 101?

Culpepper does not have Randy Moss and Chris Carter in their prime. He might help a little but I don't think he is worth 7 wins. Not with that O-line. Raiders win 4-6 games this year and they will be right back in the top 5 of the NFL draft next year.

Chris Carter was not with the Vikings in 2004.

Randy Moss WAS part of both the 2004 Vikings, and 2006 Raiders, although a limited factor both seasons as he was injured.

All this shows is that the 2006 Raiders+2004 Culpepper=9-7 team. Roughly. That's it.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Well, yeah of course.

But I think any change for the Raiders would be positive, on the offensive side at least.

Yeah they probably would be, simply because there's nowhere to go but up. Defensively, you could say the opposite. There's more room for a backslide than there is for an improvement.

But really, I was intending to say that '04 Culpepper's points over replacement isn't entirely attributable to his amazing skill. He had a lot of factors working for him that can't be separated from the points over replacement calculations; a much better offensive line than the Raiders have, a much better receiving corps than the Raiders have (Wiggins was a great safety valve, Moss was a great deep threat, and Burleson was a mix of both), and a scheme that Culpepper was comfortable with.

In other words, I don't think any points over replacement calculations are applicable here to the Raiders. Because the only way '07 Culpepper can look like '04 Culpepper is if he gets the blocking that '04 Culpepper had, gets the WRs that '04 Culpepper had, and learns the scheme as intimately as '04 Culpepper did.

In sum, I think Culpepper is a really, really good QB. But he's in a situation where he can't possibly look any better than ordinary, IMO.

[CHIEF CHUCKING MY SPEAR]

if he stays healthy he can still be good. Unfortually he on a crappy team. Wish he was our backup.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Yeah they probably would be, simply because there's nowhere to go but up. Defensively, you could say the opposite. There's more room for a backslide than there is for an improvement.

But really, I was intending to say that '04 Culpepper's points over replacement isn't entirely attributable to his amazing skill. He had a lot of factors working for him that can't be separated from the points over replacement calculations; a much better offensive line than the Raiders have, a much better receiving corps than the Raiders have (Wiggins was a great safety valve, Moss was a great deep threat, and Burleson was a mix of both), and a scheme that Culpepper was comfortable with.

In other words, I don't think any points over replacement calculations are applicable here to the Raiders. Because the only way '07 Culpepper can look like '04 Culpepper is if he gets the blocking that '04 Culpepper had, gets the WRs that '04 Culpepper had, and learns the scheme as intimately as '04 Culpepper did.

In sum, I think Culpepper is a really, really good QB. But he's in a situation where he can't possibly look any better than ordinary, IMO.

All true. And the assumption behind the calculation was that Culpepper would overcome all that to post identical production to 2004. In reality, he probably doesn't have the tools around him to have any shot of replicating that performance, but that doesn't mean that the results still wouldn't rock the NFL if he could play very well at the position for the Raiders.

Basically I was just having fun with the numbers, not really trying to use them to predict anything.

[Crazyhorse1]

Originally Posted by Stacks42

Once a mobile quarterback (i.e. Brunell) starts experiencing knee problems, its pretty much over. Culpepper like Brunell likes to roll out of the pocket and throw in stride, Culpepper is not a pocket qb. I'm not trying to bash him, I always liked the guy and think he has gotten a raw deal, I hope he can adapt and flourish with the raiders

I see no reason to think Culpepper is through because he is similar to Brunell in that he can't roll out any more. Culpepper can still throw.

[Crat92]

I hope he proves all the doubters wrong this year, even if its in a limited role. Hopefully he'll wind up in Detroit throwin TDs to CJ.

[Cowell]

Culpepper is done and he never really was an amazing QB that everyone put him up to be. It's not tough when you have a Randy Moss in his pro-football prime as your WR.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

I think this move is bad for Culpepper good for the Raiders. Culpepper takes the pounding that Russell would have taken had he started this season.