Football Outsiders: Redskins D is No. 1

[GTripp0012]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007

DVOA has us 4th against the run and 2nd against the pass. I still feel that our dominance against the run is a tad skewed by some general bad gameplanning against us (why does no one ever run to our defensive left?). We have, however, played some GREAT rushing offenses over this season. Philly, Miami, and New York all rank in the top 5, and Detroit, Green Bay, and Arizona are all around average.

So far the best passing offense we saw was Green Bay, and that went over pretty well. The not so great pass offenses were thoroughly embarrassed.

What I like to look at is how our DVOA numbers break down against certain receivers (you can see that chart at the bottom of the linked page. No. 1 recievers have given us some trouble this year as have TEs. Moss and Watson aren't exactly going to make it easier on us. However, look at those numbers for receivers No. 2 and beyond. That is simply outstanding.

If we can make the Patriots one dimensional, and essentially make all plays called to Welker and Stallworth a waste of a down (as we have done this year with all 2nd and 3rd WRs), the Pats will be lucky to hit the 20 range against us.

Thoughts?

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

I thought we were 4th in total D 5th against the run and 8th against the pass

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I thought we were 4th in total D 5th against the run and 8th against the pass

Those stats suck.

I can say that because they are underrating the job our D has done. Opponents have run a lot of plays against us, but DVOA doesn't penalize our D for that.

[skinsnut]

I disagree with your assessment that we have played against great rushing teams.
Most of the teams we've had success with were pass first offenses.

Miami is certainly a rushing team, we barely won that.
The Giants can run....we lost that.
Philly is not a running team but Westbrook can kill you....we almost lost that.
Most of the other teams are pass teams...we play well against them.

Bottom line is I dont think we would do as well if teams ran on us more.
I think Andre Carter can easily be exposed in the running game. He plays on the defensive right or the offensive left side.

If they are not attacking the left side as you say in the running game it may be poor gameplanning.
Yes, Carter has more name recognition that phillip daniels, but daniels is way better against the run....Carter can be exposed. Also, it really depends on which is the strong side...if the offensive strong side is also to the left, the WLB is Rocky....and that means serious speed and good tackling....I would avoid running to Rocky's side.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

Although our defense has done well against #2 WRs, I'm not sure that will happen this week. Truthfully, I'm more concerned about Wes Welker than Randy Moss. We've done well to shutdown #1's, not just this year, but in previous years as well. I can't remember the last good game Terrell Owens had against us. That works if the team doesn't have any other good options. However, Welker has been tearing it up this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 100+ and a TD.

[gibbsisgod]

Originally Posted by skinsnut

I disagree with your assessment that we have played against great rushing teams.
Most of the teams we've had success with were pass first offenses.

Miami is certainly a rushing team, we barely won that.
The Giants can run....we lost that.
Philly is not a running team but Westbrook can kill you....we almost lost that.
Most of the other teams are pass teams...we play well against them.

Bottom line is I dont think we would do as well if teams ran on us more.
I think Andre Carter can easily be exposed in the running game. He plays on the defensive right or the offensive left side.

If they are not attacking the left side as you say in the running game it may be poor gameplanning.
Yes, Carter has more name recognition that phillip daniels, but daniels is way better against the run....Carter can be exposed. Also, it really depends on which is the strong side...if the offensive strong side is also to the left, the WLB is Rocky....and that means serious speed and good tackling....I would avoid running to Rocky's side.

We didn't "ALMOST" lose that game. We won by 8 points. We were never in trouble of losing that game. Also you say we barely won the Miami game. Gtripp's point was that we have shut down the run on everybody we have played. Because we "almost lost" or "barely won" does not mean they ran all over us.

And lets not forget Arizona. They are a solid rushing team. They tried their asses off the whole game to run on us and it just didn't work.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by gibbsisgod

We didn't "ALMOST" lose that game. We won by 8 points. We were never in trouble of losing that game. Also you say we barely won the Miami game. Gtripp's point was that we have shut down the run on everybody we have played. Because we "almost lost" or "barely won" does not mean they ran all over us.

And lets not forget Arizona. They are a solid rushing team. They tried their asses off the whole game to run on us and it just didn't work.

Exactly.

The worst offense we played, Detroit, is certainly no worse than average. The point is our defense has done what it has against excellent competition. Now this week, we face the elite team. Is there reason to expect the trend not to continue.

Think about it. We have been dominant against offenses that lie somewhere between very good and average. The Pats offense has been just as dominant against defenses that lie between above average (Dallas), and pure crap (Cleveland and Miami).

If you had to pick a trend to continue based on that, and knowing something has to give, what makes the most sense?

We are probably going to get the best of NE's offense this week.

It's on Campbell and the offense to win the game.

[GridIron26]

Originally Posted by GhettoDogAllStars

Although our defense has done well against #2 WRs, I'm not sure that will happen this week. Truthfully, I'm more concerned about Wes Welker than Randy Moss. We've done well to shutdown #1's, not just this year, but in previous years as well. I can't remember the last good game Terrell Owens had against us. That works if the team doesn't have any other good options. However, Welker has been tearing it up this year. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for 100+ and a TD.

Uh Cowgirls also had Terry Glenn at that time, beside one or two big bomb plays.. Glenn didn't had big game against us either..

[Redskins8588]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Exactly.

The worst offense we played, Detroit, is certainly no worse than average. The point is our defense has done what it has against excellent competition. Now this week, we face the elite team. Is there reason to expect the trend not to continue.

Think about it. We have been dominant against offenses that lie somewhere between very good and average. The Pats offense has been just as dominant against defenses that lie between above average (Dallas), and pure crap (Cleveland and Miami).

If you had to pick a trend to continue based on that, and knowing something has to give, what makes the most sense?

We are probably going to get the best of NE's offense this week.

It's on Campbell and the offense to win the game.

I agree 100% it is not our defense that I am worried about, but if our offense can do something in the 3rd and 3th quarter than we may have a chance. We need to sustain drives to keep Brady off the field and right now we can not do that in the second half...

[70Chip]

In watching the Cardinals game again the other night, it seems to me that our scheme against the run is extremely sound. Carter is a little undersized and undisciplined but Fletcher has been able to make up for that.

I expect the Pats to go no huddle, spread the field and throw a lot. Brady has the skill and the field presence to get first downs by taking the underneath stuff. Then they will start to mix in Moroni and Faulk with the draws and screens. Then, if Williams brings Cover Zero, they go deep to Moss. But, don't be surprised if the first ten plays the Patriots call are all passes.

[GhettoDogAllStars]

Originally Posted by GridIron26

Uh Cowgirls also had Terry Glenn at that time, beside one or two big bomb plays.. Glenn didn't had big game against us either..

Yeah, but I don't consider a 30 something Glenn as a "good option". I'd say he's average.

[Southpaw]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

DVOA has us 4th against the run and 2nd against the pass. I still feel that our dominance against the run is a tad skewed by some general bad gameplanning against us (why does no one ever run to our defensive left?).

Bad gameplanning(stupid playcalling) isn't a measurable statistic; therefore it doesn't exist.

But the numbers are impressive. Washington is definitely creating a lot more 3 and out situations than last season.

[GMScud]

Good for our D. Too bad we've only scored 3+ TDs 15 outta 56 games since Coach Joe game back (27% of games). 14-17pts aren't gonna cut it this weekend, even if our D was #1 against the run and pass.

[GMScud]

On a side note, since this thread is about D, I'm really bothered by the fact that Smoot and Rogers basically haven't practiced at all this week. Maybe it's just a precaution, but I think it's pretty obvious that neither will be 100%, and that's BIG, BIG trouble for us. Sigh....

[RMSkins]

Originally Posted by EARTHQUAKE2689

I thought we were 4th in total D 5th against the run and 8th against the pass

Actually we're 5th in total D, with the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, and Patriots ahead of us.