Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler declares for NFL Draft

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It’s official: Brock Osweiler declares for the NFL | CollegeFootballTalk

This was such a surprising decision that I totally skipped Osweiler when I was doing my player film analysis about a month ago. So I spent all of last night and this morning watching a majority of his 2011 season.

Here's a brief synopsis: it's going to be tough to put a draft grade on him because players similar to him almost never come out as 21 year old juniors. They almost always stay. But with Dennis Erickson getting fired and his OC (Noel Mazzone) leaving the program, he was rumored to be considering a transfer and I have no doubt that the decisions of Matt Barkley and Landry Jones to stay in school probably drove Osweiler to the NFL.

After watching probably about 50% of his snaps from last season, I really think he is the most physically gifted pocket player in this draft, if not in years. He's 6'8", a very good athlete, doesn't have happy feet, is tough, will take a hit, can make every throw, and is deadly accurate with strong fundamentals. Put simply, players like Osweiler never, ever make it out of the first round. They are too talented.

Here's the issue: mentally, there are probably five quarterbacks in the Pac-12 alone who see a higher percentage of the field: Foles, Barkley, Price, and Luck at the very least. And it's not like he's been rotting on the bench this whole time: he started games as a true 18 year old freshman and as a sophomore as well. Also, Mazzone runs a true spread offense. Not the pro-style spread that at team like Texas, Oklahoma, or Notre Dame runs these days. But pretty much the same offense that RG3 is running at Baylor.

Physically, Osweiler is very polished and consistent with his footwork, and they do some difficult pocket movements at ASU that require precision and timing. But the speed of the college game still appears rather fast for him, to the point where he's rarely reading more than two receivers in a single play. I have no doubt that he could start for the Redskins as a rookie in a stripped down version of the Kyle Shanahan system, but like Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, he is still many, many years away from being able to handle full quarterback responsibility in an NFL offense.

As far as his college coaching, Mazzone is really good: he did work with Philip Rivers at NC State, and later taught quarterback fundamentals to Tim Tebow prior to draft day 2010. I can understand why he didn't want to play for Todd Graham after watching this wide open offense. I also went back and saw some high school highlights, and he was really fundamentally sound even back then.

He's the kind of player I could see the Shanahan's falling in love with, but is also perhaps the least pro ready player at the top of this class.

He's still really young: he'll be 21 years old in Week 1. I think he's unquestionably more talented as a pocket passer than Ryan Tannehill, and a bit more talented than Nick Foles (though a much better athlete than Foles). It's just the mental part of the game that's causing him trouble at this point: he was sensational against USC, but struggled mightily against Illinois and Boise State, the three most "pro style" defenses that he saw last season.