Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

Very good post.
However, I will point out, that WR's / TE's and of course your line, do indeed make the difference in those numbers. Oakland does not have a good DL, nor WR's, nor TE's. While Culpepper has a great amount of talent, and I do think he can return to form, I don't think he'll do it in Oakland. The sub par team will take him down with them.
I said it before, I thought Culpepper was dumb for signing with Oakland, he needs to show the world what he can do. In Oakland he will be the lone star. I wish him luck, but I am not expecting him to have numbers that reflect his talent this year.