The Don's Week 3 picks

D'BOYZ · 09-21-2007, 10:41 PM

THE DON'S
Crystal Ball

WEEK 3 PICKS

By DonCanabis
CP Analyst/Godfather

Well, it got better last week. I turned up with a 62% overall, which is pretty good, people, and a 9-7 against the spread. All this with the two big upsets—I don't know what's happening in New Orleans, but they have to fix it quickly.

Week 3: it's the time of the upset. Every 0-2 team plays with all they've got, because they know the stats...if you go 0-3, you have almost zero chance to make the playoffs. Also it's when the pretenders start to fall—you know, those magic 2-0 teams that you just can't figure out.

On with the picks...

San Francisco at Pittsburgh -8.5 Ovr/Und 38

San Francisco has barely survived the past two weeks thanks to a good defense and the power horse, Gore. Pittsburgh is playing mistake-free football, and they're becoming a sure thing against the spread. At the beginning of the week, I thought this spread was too high but, as I said, SF is about defense and they just lost one of their best players for the season Wednesday. Still, it will be hard-fought; if you want the easy pick, take the over.

Straight: Pittsburgh
Spread: Pittsburgh
Ovr/Und: Over

Arizona at Baltimore -7.5 Ovr/Und 35
UPSET OF THE WEEK

I know you all think I'm crazy for making this pick—it's the Baltimore defense, for Christ's sake...but let's analyze this for a second. This team couldn't hold Cincinnati's offense and was two drops away from giving the second game to the Jets. Yes, they'll put pressure on, but the key here will be Arizona's defense vs. McNair, and I'll go with Arizona on that one...I'm worried about Leinart, and he'll have his bumps, but how many points can that Baltimore offense score?

Straight: Arizona
Spread: Arizona
Ovr/Und: Under

Indianapolis at Houston +5 Ovr/Und 48

I was more excited about this game before the A. Johnson injury. Schaub has been great, but don't fool yourself—Johnson and that defense are the reasons they're 2-0. You can say Jacobi Jones, but he has no help and Green is banged up. They won't be able to hold Peyton.

Straight: Indianapolis
Spread: Indianapolis
Ovr/Und: Over

Detroit at Philadelphia -6.5 Ovr/Und 44.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK #2

Detroit is looking good on offense, and their defense is holding on. Philadelphia is falling apart: McNabb is not okay, and he has no help from his WRs. Also, Westbrook is already banged up. Take the upset.

Straight: Detroit
Spread: Detroit
Ovr/Und: Over

Buffalo at New England -16 Ovr/Und 42

I feel like I'm playing college with this line! J.P Losman is looking like his old self, and Randy Moss is happy. Buffalo fans, be worried...

Straight: New England
Spread: New England
Ovr/Und: Over

San Diego at Green Bay +4 Ovr/Und 44

Are you guys happy Norv didn't come to Dallas now? That GB defense is looking pretty good, but Green Bay is my phantom team: good defense, no offense. Scoring against New York is like playing against a Division 1-AA team.

Straight: San Diego
Spread: San Diego
Ovr/Und: Under

Miami at NYJ -3 Ovr/Und 35.5

I liked how the N.Y. Jets fought until the end against Baltimore. Zack Thomas is hurt, and Miami just doesn't have enough offense to not screw up that defense...four interceptions last week!

Straight: N.Y. Jets
Spread: N.Y. Jets
Ovr/Und: Under

Minnesota at Kansas City -2 Ovr/Und 33

Minnesota got the best news they could get: T. Jackson is hurt and Holcomb might play! It's sad, but this kid is just awful. It really looks like they brought the towel boy to play QB. Kansas City just got their pressure player back. I expect a close match, but taking a win in Arrowhead with no offense...I just don't see it.

Straight: Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City
Ovr/Und: Over

St. Louis at Tampa Bay -4 Ovr/Und 38

St. Louis is banged up; that offense has to many holes, and they are just completely out of sink...too many drops, no lanes to run in, and just can't block. I liked what I saw in Tampa, but it always breaks my heart seeing Galloway doing what he was supposed to do in Dallas with another team. It looks like they found their groove, though.

Straight: Tampa Bay
Spread: Tampa Bay
Ovr/Und: Over

Cleveland at Oakland -3.5 Ovr/Und 38.5

Cleveland pulled their one "what the heck?" game of the year; they used it early, and they don't have another lifeline. Oakland has played tough, and we all felt bad for them (expect Broncos' fans) last week—what a bad break! They get one in the W column this week.

Straight: Oakland
Spread: Oakland
Ovr/Und: Over

Jacksonville at Denver -3.5 Ovr/Und 35.5

Denver has won two close games that shouldn't even have been close at all. They lose this week against a good Jacksonville defense.

Straight: Jacksonville
Spread: Jacksonville
Ovr/Und: Under

Cincinnati at Seattle -3.5 Ovr/Und 50

Both teams let me down last week, so I'm a little hurt. The Cincinnati defense worries me, but I sure love that offense.

Straight: Cincinnati
Spread: Cincinnati
Ovr/Und: Over

New York Giants at Washington -4 Ovr/Und 40.5

Washington has played close two games with not-so-good teams. They'll face their third team with problems—if they don't start fixing things up on offense, it will catch up. Campbell, you can't miss those all-alone throws—you're messing with our fantasy leagues! New York is a mess and is all banged up.

Straight: Washington
Spread: Washington
Ovr/Und: Under

Carolina at Atlanta +4 Ovr/Und 36

S. Smith is this decade's Barry Sanders, and if anyone doesn't agree with me, they have to watch last week's game. WOW! Leftwich's two-week waiting period starts now. Expect another seven sacks.

Straight: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Ovr/Und: Over

Dallas at Chicago -3 Ovr/Und 42

NBC is 3-for-3 on the night games. Am I the only one that thinks Sunday Night has become the new MNF? What a game! A high-scoring offense against one of the top defenses in the league. It's going to be a tough match, and it will all come down to Romo: if he can control the game, doesn't give it away, and makes Rex work for it, Dallas will take it.

Straight: Dallas
Spread: Dallas
Ovr/Und: Under

Tennessee at New Orleans -4.5 Ovr/Und 45.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK #3

New Orleans has let me down twice this year, and I know I'm a fool, because I still believe in them. Maybe they needed to come home and get slapped by the fans to come to their senses...Payton, note to self: Give the ball to McAllister!

Straight: New Orleans
Spread: New Orleans
Ovr/Und: Under

Hot Picks

Over (Pittsburgh)
Arizona
Indianapolis
Tampa Bay
Washington
Carolina
Oakland

59% Overall for the Season, 1-2 Upsets

And if it turns out any other way, I'll deny I said this!

09-21-2007, 10:41 PM	#1
D'BOYZ The Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 1,363	The Don's Week 3 picks THE DON'S Crystal Ball WEEK 3 PICKS By DonCanabis CP Analyst/Godfather Well, it got better last week. I turned up with a 62% overall, which is pretty good, people, and a 9-7 against the spread. All this with the two big upsets—I don't know what's happening in New Orleans, but they have to fix it quickly. Week 3: it's the time of the upset. Every 0-2 team plays with all they've got, because they know the stats...if you go 0-3, you have almost zero chance to make the playoffs. Also it's when the pretenders start to fall—you know, those magic 2-0 teams that you just can't figure out. On with the picks... San Francisco at Pittsburgh -8.5 Ovr/Und 38 San Francisco has barely survived the past two weeks thanks to a good defense and the power horse, Gore. Pittsburgh is playing mistake-free football, and they're becoming a sure thing against the spread. At the beginning of the week, I thought this spread was too high but, as I said, SF is about defense and they just lost one of their best players for the season Wednesday. Still, it will be hard-fought; if you want the easy pick, take the over. Straight: Pittsburgh Spread: Pittsburgh Ovr/Und: Over Arizona at Baltimore -7.5 Ovr/Und 35 UPSET OF THE WEEK I know you all think I'm crazy for making this pick—it's the Baltimore defense, for Christ's sake...but let's analyze this for a second. This team couldn't hold Cincinnati's offense and was two drops away from giving the second game to the Jets. Yes, they'll put pressure on, but the key here will be Arizona's defense vs. McNair, and I'll go with Arizona on that one...I'm worried about Leinart, and he'll have his bumps, but how many points can that Baltimore offense score? Straight: Arizona Spread: Arizona Ovr/Und: Under Indianapolis at Houston +5 Ovr/Und 48 I was more excited about this game before the A. Johnson injury. Schaub has been great, but don't fool yourself—Johnson and that defense are the reasons they're 2-0. You can say Jacobi Jones, but he has no help and Green is banged up. They won't be able to hold Peyton. Straight: Indianapolis Spread: Indianapolis Ovr/Und: Over Detroit at Philadelphia -6.5 Ovr/Und 44.5 UPSET OF THE WEEK #2 Detroit is looking good on offense, and their defense is holding on. Philadelphia is falling apart: McNabb is not okay, and he has no help from his WRs. Also, Westbrook is already banged up. Take the upset. Straight: Detroit Spread: Detroit Ovr/Und: Over Buffalo at New England -16 Ovr/Und 42 I feel like I'm playing college with this line! J.P Losman is looking like his old self, and Randy Moss is happy. Buffalo fans, be worried... Straight: New England Spread: New England Ovr/Und: Over San Diego at Green Bay +4 Ovr/Und 44 Are you guys happy Norv didn't come to Dallas now? That GB defense is looking pretty good, but Green Bay is my phantom team: good defense, no offense. Scoring against New York is like playing against a Division 1-AA team. Straight: San Diego Spread: San Diego Ovr/Und: Under Miami at NYJ -3 Ovr/Und 35.5 I liked how the N.Y. Jets fought until the end against Baltimore. Zack Thomas is hurt, and Miami just doesn't have enough offense to not screw up that defense...four interceptions last week! Straight: N.Y. Jets Spread: N.Y. Jets Ovr/Und: Under Minnesota at Kansas City -2 Ovr/Und 33 Minnesota got the best news they could get: T. Jackson is hurt and Holcomb might play! It's sad, but this kid is just awful. It really looks like they brought the towel boy to play QB. Kansas City just got their pressure player back. I expect a close match, but taking a win in Arrowhead with no offense...I just don't see it. Straight: Kansas City Spread: Kansas City Ovr/Und: Over St. Louis at Tampa Bay -4 Ovr/Und 38 St. Louis is banged up; that offense has to many holes, and they are just completely out of sink...too many drops, no lanes to run in, and just can't block. I liked what I saw in Tampa, but it always breaks my heart seeing Galloway doing what he was supposed to do in Dallas with another team. It looks like they found their groove, though. Straight: Tampa Bay Spread: Tampa Bay Ovr/Und: Over Cleveland at Oakland -3.5 Ovr/Und 38.5 Cleveland pulled their one "what the heck?" game of the year; they used it early, and they don't have another lifeline. Oakland has played tough, and we all felt bad for them (expect Broncos' fans) last week—what a bad break! They get one in the W column this week. Straight: Oakland Spread: Oakland Ovr/Und: Over Jacksonville at Denver -3.5 Ovr/Und 35.5 Denver has won two close games that shouldn't even have been close at all. They lose this week against a good Jacksonville defense. Straight: Jacksonville Spread: Jacksonville Ovr/Und: Under Cincinnati at Seattle -3.5 Ovr/Und 50 Both teams let me down last week, so I'm a little hurt. The Cincinnati defense worries me, but I sure love that offense. Straight: Cincinnati Spread: Cincinnati Ovr/Und: Over New York Giants at Washington -4 Ovr/Und 40.5 Washington has played close two games with not-so-good teams. They'll face their third team with problems—if they don't start fixing things up on offense, it will catch up. Campbell, you can't miss those all-alone throws—you're messing with our fantasy leagues! New York is a mess and is all banged up. Straight: Washington Spread: Washington Ovr/Und: Under Carolina at Atlanta +4 Ovr/Und 36 S. Smith is this decade's Barry Sanders, and if anyone doesn't agree with me, they have to watch last week's game. WOW! Leftwich's two-week waiting period starts now. Expect another seven sacks. Straight: Carolina Spread: Carolina Ovr/Und: Over Dallas at Chicago -3 Ovr/Und 42 NBC is 3-for-3 on the night games. Am I the only one that thinks Sunday Night has become the new MNF? What a game! A high-scoring offense against one of the top defenses in the league. It's going to be a tough match, and it will all come down to Romo: if he can control the game, doesn't give it away, and makes Rex work for it, Dallas will take it. Straight: Dallas Spread: Dallas Ovr/Und: Under Tennessee at New Orleans -4.5 Ovr/Und 45.5 UPSET OF THE WEEK #3 New Orleans has let me down twice this year, and I know I'm a fool, because I still believe in them. Maybe they needed to come home and get slapped by the fans to come to their senses...Payton, note to self: Give the ball to McAllister! Straight: New Orleans Spread: New Orleans Ovr/Und: Under Hot Picks Over (Pittsburgh) Arizona Indianapolis Tampa Bay Washington Carolina Oakland 59% Overall for the Season, 1-2 Upsets And if it turns out any other way, I'll deny I said this!

The Don's Week 3 picks

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