Mock Draft - Skins take Orakpo

[Monkeydad]

This would make me VERY happy.

Business Time: Final Mock

Business Time: Final Mock
Evan Silva

The top pick in the 2009 NFL Draft could be revealed any hour now. The Lions are actively negotiating with Matthew Stafford, Jason Smith, and Aaron Curry. GM Martin Mayhew's preference is to sign Stafford and take him first, but agent Tom Condon always drives a hard bargain. Condon negotiated Matt Ryan's six-year, $72 million contract last spring and that's merely a baseline. Ryan was the third overall pick. Stafford will receive at least $75 million over six seasons, with upwards of $40 million guaranteed.

Three years ago FOXSports' Jay Glazer broke the news 16 hours before the draft that the Texans would sign Mario Williams to a contract making him the No. 1 pick. Skip 2007's JaMarcus Russell disaster and it was Glazer again reporting Jake Long's deal four days before the draft. Can Glazer make it a three-peat with the Lions and Stafford?

1. Lions - Georgia QB Matthew Stafford

All signs still point to Stafford going first, most notably club president Tom Lewand's suggestive comments at the Lions' logo unveiling Monday. Stafford's powerful arm is a perfect fit for new coordinator Scott Linehan's vertical offense and Calvin Johnson's deep threat ability.

2. Rams - Baylor LT Jason Smith

GM Bill Devaney likes Eugene Monroe, but Smith's cleaner health record has him higher on most draft boards. A recent survey of 19 scouts also confirmed that Smith is considered the stronger pick. St. Louis can't enter Week 1 with Alex Barron on injury-prone Marc Bulger's blind side.

3. Chiefs - Boston College NT B.J. Raji

KC will field calls from the Redskins and others about this pick's availability, but it's rare for teams to trade into the top five. Now that a report Raji failed his Combine drug test has been proved false, GM Scott Pioli can feel comfortable drafting his next Vince Wilfork.

4. Seahawks - USC QB Mark Sanchez

Matt Hasselbeck is going on 34 and the new Seattle staff admits his health is a concern. He missed nine games last year with a bulging disk in his back. The most accurate QB in this draft, Sanchez is a great fit for coordinator Greg Knapp's precision-based offense.

5. Browns - Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree

Cleveland is said to have narrowed its choices to Crabtree and Sanchez. With Sanchez unlikely to be available, a Braylon Edwards trade looming, and Donte' Stallworth doubtful to play football in 2009, the Browns can maintain offensive respectability with the draft's best receiver.

6. Bengals - Virginia LT Eugene Monroe

Monroe may be the best draft-eligible tackle, but shaky knees are expected to limit how high he's taken. He missed two games as a junior with a knee injury and dislocated his kneecap as a sophomore. Still, the Bengals are desperate to replace overpriced, underperforming LT Levi Jones.

7. Raiders - Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey

Oakland got just 82 receptions from its 2008 receiver corps and lacks a weapon capable of threatening defenses deep. Measurables-obsessed owner Al Davis won't necessarily see Heyward-Bey as a top-ten reach due to his sensational size-speed combination.

8. Jaguars - Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry

There is mounting belief that Curry won't be drafted as early as the media projects. Historically, non-rush linebackers rarely go in the top five. GM Gene Smith remains committed to the best player available, though, and Curry is it here. He could start in the middle or on the strong side in Jacksonville.

9. Packers - Penn State DE Aaron Maybin

Transitioning to a 3-4 defense, Green Bay can get by with big bodies Ryan Pickett (6'2/322), Johnny Jolly, Jr. (6'3/312), Cullen Jenkins (6'2/302), and Justin Harrell (6'4/310) on the line. They have no one capable of playing outside linebacker in the new scheme. Maybin led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

10. 49ers - Alabama OL Andre Smith

Reporters from the Santa Rosa Press Democrat and San Francisco Chronicle have beaten the drum that Smith's messy offseason since the Sugar Bowl isn't enough to get him past No. 10. Smith would give Mike Singletary

a true punisher

at strong-side tackle.

11. Bills - Ole Miss LT Michael Oher

The Bills are looking hard at defensive ends while shopping LE Chris Kelsay, but it would be a crime for GM Russ Brandon to pass on a franchise left tackle after trading Jason Peters. There is a perception around the league that Brandon got fleeced in that deal.

12. Broncos - Florida State DE Everette Brown

Denver has some interesting OLB candidates (Elvis Dumervil, Jarvis Moss, Darrell Reid) on the roster, but none with experience there.

Brown is more explosive

than all of the above and at 6'2/256 is ideally built to play weak-side rush 'backer in Mike Nolan's 3-4 defense. Broncos GM Brian Xanders is also an FSU alum.

13. Redskins - Texas DE Brian Orakpo

3-4 teams seem to be souring on Orakpo. He was rarely asked to cover by Mack Brown and may be too stiff to rush with his hand up. The Redskins' interest level is high, however, and owner Dan Snyder prefers Orakpo's big name and history of production to Robert Ayers'. Orakpo would fill the need at left end Jason Taylor couldn't.

14. Saints - Ohio State CB Malcolm Jenkins

The Saints' interest in Chris Wells smacks of smokescreen, particularly in light of the latest news about Beanie's foot problems. Free agent signee Darren Sharper is best utilized as a reserve entering his mid-30s. Jenkins would convert to free safety, where he played on third downs as a college junior.

15. Texans - USC OLB Clay Matthews

Houston is solid at middle and weak-side linebacker with DeMeco Ryans and Xavier Adibi, but will be hard pressed to count on Zach Diles, a former undrafted free agent coming off a fractured tibia. Matthews would line up behind LE Antonio Smith and give offenses fits with the ability to rush or cover tight ends on the strong side.

16. Chargers - LSU DE Tyson Jackson

Several outlets have reported that the Chiefs are high on Jackson and his stock is soaring, but he only recorded 4.5 sacks for Les Miles last season and needs to play in a strict 3-4. San Diego runs that system and has a hole opposite Luis Castillo after losing Igor Olshansky to Dallas.

17. Jets - Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin

The Jets talked up David Clowney and Brad Smith at pre-draft minicamps, but neither possesses Maclin's three-down receiver or return potential. The Jets are also set to take Leon Washington off punt returns and increase his offensive usage. Maclin would be an upgrade there over Jim Leonhard.

18. Broncos (from Bears) - USC MLB Rey Maualuga

Declining 30-year-old ILB Andra Davis isn't the answer next to D.J. Williams for Mike Nolan's new 3-4 scheme. Nolan needs a thumper, and Maualuga is the top Ted linebacker available. Maualuga doesn't excel in pass coverage, but would instantly upgrade Denver's woeful run defense.

19. Bucs - Tennessee DE Robert Ayers

Tampa made no effort to retain free agent Kevin Carter and has rotated misfits Greg White and Jimmy Wilkerson at left end during offseason camps. White is a liability against the run, while Wilkerson is a 'tweener tackle-end. Ayers is arguably the most complete DE in the draft.

20. Lions (from Dallas) - Connecticut LT William Beatty

The Lions appear to be approaching this draft like the Falcons a year ago, targeting their QB high and hoping to improve the lines later on. A premier athlete, Beatty would be Detroit's version of Sam Baker and could push Jeff Backus inside to guard with a strong training camp.

21. Eagles - Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno

After acquiring Jason Peters, Philadelphia's goal is to come out of this draft with an every-down back and coach Andy Reid has his sights set on Moreno. The Eagles might have to trade up to make sure they execute, but have the ammo with ten draft picks remaining.

22. Vikings - Arizona OT Eben Britton

The Vikes will consider receivers, but showed no urgency to upgrade there after whiffing on T.J. Houshmandzadeh in free agency. The greater need is at right tackle, and Britton is an excellent value at 22. Britton can also play the blind side and provides insurance for arrest-prone LT Bryant McKinnie.

23. Patriots - Cincinnati DE/TE Connor Barwin

Barwin's amazing versatility will appeal to New England more than most teams. Capable of playing tight end, linebacker, and defensive end, Barwin is a logical replacement for Mike Vrabel. The Pats will likely invest in multiple pass rushers this weekend.

24. Falcons - San Jose State DL Jarron Gilbert

Atlanta lost NT Grady Jackson in free agency and would start undersized Jonathan Babineaux and Kindal Moorehead inside if the season began today. The Falcons can't count on Trey Lewis, who's recovering from multiple knee operations. With rare size potential, Gilbert likely could bulk up to 6'6/320 and still cause havoc up the middle.

25. Dolphins - Utah CB Sean Smith

VP of football operations Bill Parcells believes in collecting size at all positions. Smith, easily the draft's biggest corner at 6'4/214, would compete with free agent signee Eric Green to start at RCB. Green was benched in Arizona last year and there isn't a bigger need on Miami's roster.

26. Ravens - North Carolina WR Hakeem Nicks

Baltimore's top three receivers (Derrick Mason, Demetrius Williams, and Mark Clayton) all enter contract years. Nicks caught flack for gaining weight before Pro Day, but it happened because he was nursing an injury. He comes from a pro-style offense and is ready to start right now.

27. Colts - Ohio State RB Chris Wells

Indianapolis has set the stage to draft a tailback high. Joseph Addai's durability is a serious concern and he lacks an NFL-caliber backup after Dominic Rhodes got away. Wells would give the Colts a dangerous 1-2 punch when Addai is healthy and a 17-20 carry per game back if Addai goes down again.

28. Bills (from Eagles) - Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew

Pettigrew is a pro-ready blocker but with 4.8-4.9 speed, questions about his separate ability will likely keep him out of the top 20. Buffalo could still use help in the run game and over the middle in the pass game. Both Terrell Owens and Lee Evans are sideline-type vertical receivers.

29. Browns (Predicted trade from Giants) - Northern Illinois DE Larry English

Braylon Edwards-to-New York is the most anticipated and likely draft-day trade. After tabbing Crabtree fifth, Cleveland would still be positioned to upgrade opposite Kamerion Wimbley because several 3-4 OLB prospects will be values at the end of round one. Clint Sintim, Michael Johnson, and Paul Kruger are possibilities, but English is the best bet.

30. Titans - Ole Miss DT Peria Jerry

Jerry was one of the nation's most productive interior defensive linemen last season, but his injury history has moved him down some boards. As a highly explosive up-field penetrator, however, Jerry would fit ideally into new defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil's one-gap scheme.

31. Cardinals - Connecticut RB Donald Brown

Arizona's top draft weekend priority is finding a complement for Tim Hightower. Hightower would keep short-yardage and blitz-pickup responsibilities, with Brown adding homerun potential and an after-catch threat. The Cards could then release Edgerrin James, saving $5M under the salary cap.

32. Steelers - Illinois CB Vontae Davis

Pittsburgh will consider Cs Alex Mack and Max Unger here, but Davis is the better value. And after losing Bryant McFadden, cornerback is arguably the team's top need. Deshea Townsend and William Gay are in contract years and Ike Taylor is only signed through 2010.

Just Missed: USC LB Brian Cushing, Florida WR Percy Harvin, Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy, Ohio State MLB James Laurinaitis, Rutgers WR Kenny Britt, Missouri DT Ziggy Hood, Utah DE Paul Kruger, Kansas State QB Josh Freeman, Wake Forest CB Alphonso Smith, Connecticut CB Darius Butler, California C Alex Mack, Georgia Tech DE Michael Johnson, Oregon C Max Unger, Virginia OLB Clint Sintim