Who Will Be The Redskins 2011 Opening Day Starting QB?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Angry

I was crunching the numbers out of boredom. If Rex Grossman would have started every game this year his numbers would have looked a little like this. I know that it is hard to assume that he would maintain a consistent level of production throughout the season but I would take a QB with numbers anywhere close to this in a heartbeat.

CMP/ATT % YDS TD INT Rating
368/672 55% 4,480 37 21 81.1

Sure his completion % and QB rating isn't sexy but the production is there. No rookie is going to give you those numbers in his first season.

Eh. I understand that making everything linear makes the comparison easiest, but in doing so, we've given Grossman 672 attempts for the year, which would comfortably lead the league. Meaning, of course, that he's getting no meaningful contribution from the running game (because the last three games were about evaluating the pass, I think).

If we prorate Grossman's fumbles as well, you have an additional 21 of those. If he loses just ten of the 21, he's now personally responsible for 31 turnovers on the season. Then when you consider that even the successful passes come with high variance, you have a player who is comfortably below replacement.

It may not be the worst QB situation in the NFL, but 16 games of Grossman would be one of the three worst QB situations in the NFL, in any year. Even an 81.1 passer rating can't support a guy who turns it over 31 times. That's only "production" in the "he managed to start sixteen games" sense. Which was a given in the exercise.

As to your rookie assertion: I doubt a BAD prospect (Max Hall, for example) produces a 81.1 QB rating with 30 or fewer turnovers in his first year, but I think a promising rookie would be more productive than prorated Rex Grossman.