Peyton Manning or RGIII your choice

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

Numbers are what they are. Since 1998 (till 2009), there is a 41% success chance of landing a very good QB in the top 5 of the NFL draft.

Griffin or Luck chances at becoming a successful draft pick are still the same. They still have a 41% chance. It is what it is. I would imagine that there is a high probability that one of the two is going to bust.

Missing on Griffin isn't any different than missing on Reilly Reiff, et al. Your chance of salvaging your 2012 draft in the face of an misevaluation at the top of the first round is much greater if you don't make the trade, but it's kind of silly IMO to think of the draft as a proposition where you try to do the least harm.

You get to draft the most valuable assets in the NFL and sign them for 20%-30% of their market value. With that advantage, I wouldn't think of the trade up possibility for Griffin as a huge risk. Think of it as cost-benefit instead. You're not really risking anything of note.