Around the NFL 2013 Offseason (Episode 99)

[donofriose]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

We have had this discussion. His first td was absolutely an interception but thanks to excellent ball skills by wayne it was a td. His completion percentage speaks for itself. I have watched him play, and he can make wow throws like the one fleener dropped, but he makes alot of errors too. My personal opinion is he will settle into a mid pack career. But again, let's let this season play out. Maybe he gets shockingly better but he never did in college though, in fact his numbers never have shown dramatic improvement, just an above average college player from day one. And in the NFL if you don't get better the defenses will learn your weaknesses.

That is why toward the end of the season (the last 4 games specifically) Luck didn't finish a game completing more than 50% of his passes. Defenses figured him out. I think everyone is overrating Luck as this once in a lifetime player. I think he will be very good (see Matt Ryan) but will not end up being the elite quarterback of the next 20 years. But you never know. Most quarterbacks that end up being elite usually end up taking one giant, unexpected step at some time in their career.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by donofriose

That is why toward the end of the season (the last 4 games specifically) Luck didn't finish a game completing more than 50% of his passes. Defenses figured him out. I think everyone is overrating Luck as this once in a lifetime player. I think he will be very good (see Matt Ryan) but will not end up being the elite quarterback of the next 20 years. But you never know. Most quarterbacks that end up being elite usually end up taking one giant, unexpected step at some time in their career.

I don't know of anyone who is calling Luck a once-in-a-lifetime player, but plenty of people think he is going to have a great career, and rightfully so. He set the rookie record for passing yards, unquestionably has a smart football mind, is an underrated athlete, is a great game manager, has really good arm strength, the list goes on... The 18 INTs isn't a big concern because he's a rookie; in addition he was throwing the ball quite a few times a game. Heck, Peyton f****** Manning threw ten more INTs his rookie year than Luck did. The other small area of concern is completion percentage. But Manning only had a 56.7 percentage his rookie year, whereas Luck completed 54.1% of his passes. If Manning can improve that much, why can't Luck? Kiper gave Luck a very similar grade to Elway, so obviously he thinks Luck is going to be special.

Let's be clear though. I would take RG3 over Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Both are great quarterbacks, and will have HOF careers.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

I don't know of anyone who is calling Luck a once-in-a-lifetime player, but plenty of people think he is going to have a great career, and rightfully so. He set the rookie record for passing yards, unquestionably has a smart football mind, is an underrated athlete, is a great game manager, has really good arm strength, the list goes on... The 18 INTs isn't a big concern because he's a rookie; in addition he was throwing the ball quite a few times a game. Heck, Peyton f****** Manning threw ten more INTs his rookie year than Luck did. The other small area of concern is completion percentage. But Manning only had a 56.7 percentage his rookie year, whereas Luck completed 54.1% of his passes. If Manning can improve that much, why can't Luck? Kiper gave Luck a very similar grade to Elway, so obviously he thinks Luck is going to be special.

Let's be clear though. I would take RG3 over Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Both are great quarterbacks, and will have HOF careers.

Almost every scout when he came out labeled him as that.

Matt Miller of NFLDraftscout wants to have Andrew Luck's children, he is obsessed with him.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by CultBrennan59

Almost every scout when he came out labeled him as that.

Matt Miller of NFLDraftscout wants to have Andrew Luck's children, he is obsessed with him.

I don't think he's a once-in-a-lifetime player. But he will be great.

[Skinzman]

Luck is going to be a good QB. He had a trash offensive line last year and no running game. But he is also mistake prone. Dont forget that even with all of the int's he had, he led the league in int's dropped as well. I believe it was something like 8 would be int's that were dropped by the defenses.

I also expect him to greatly struggle this year. Look at the Saints last year when they lost their HC and the offensive genius of the team. The Colts are losing the offensive guru plus their defacto HC from last year. They are also losing the emotional rallying cry they had last year when they all rallied around their HC in the hospital.

[CultBrennan59]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

Luck is going to be a good QB. He had a trash offensive line last year and no running game. But he is also mistake prone. Dont forget that even with all of the int's he had, he led the league in int's dropped as well. I believe it was something like 8 would be int's that were dropped by the defenses.

I also expect him to greatly struggle this year. Look at the Saints last year when they lost their HC and the offensive genius of the team. The Colts are losing the offensive guru plus their defacto HC from last year. They are also losing the emotional rallying cry they had last year when they all rallied around their HC in the hospital.

At the end of the day, I think Luck is a combination of Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan. Phillip Rivers because he throws the ball weird like he does. Matt Ryan because of his smarts, arm strength and poise.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by SirLK26

I don't know of anyone who is calling Luck a once-in-a-lifetime player, but plenty of people think he is going to have a great career, and rightfully so. He set the rookie record for passing yards, unquestionably has a smart football mind, is an underrated athlete, is a great game manager, has really good arm strength, the list goes on... The 18 INTs isn't a big concern because he's a rookie; in addition he was throwing the ball quite a few times a game. Heck, Peyton f****** Manning threw ten more INTs his rookie year than Luck did. The other small area of concern is completion percentage. But Manning only had a 56.7 percentage his rookie year, whereas Luck completed 54.1% of his passes. If Manning can improve that much, why can't Luck? Kiper gave Luck a very similar grade to Elway, so obviously he thinks Luck is going to be special.

Let's be clear though. I would take RG3 over Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Both are great quarterbacks, and will have HOF careers.

The most overrated stat in football is completion %. I pay little attention to that. The minute Luck walked on the field for Indy they were no longer a 2 win team. That's what kind of player he is, regardless of completion %. Same w/ RG3 but that's mainly because of his threat to run. Right now, w/out question I take Luck over RG3. We don't know if RG3 can make it 16 games, or have any type of career because of his knees. I also think we need to see RG3 become more of a pocket passer and get down the nuances of the passing game. I think Luck has that part of the game down already where RG3 needs to get there. I think RG3 really takes that step next year, with hopefully a full off season where he's not doing any rehab.

[HailGreen28]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Right now, w/out question I take Luck over RG3. We don't know if RG3 can make it 16 games, or have any type of career because of his knees. I also think we need to see RG3 become more of a pocket passer and get down the nuances of the passing game. I think Luck has that part of the game down already where RG3 needs to get there. I think RG3 really takes that step next year, with hopefully a full off season where he's not doing any rehab.

I think RG3 has proven himself as a good pocket passer already. There may be some doubt as to whether he makes good reads on the second/third options, but he seemed to do a good job finding guys even across the field when he scrambled.

Agreed durability is an issue. RG3 just isn't a big guy like Luck, Newton, Rothlisberger.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

The most overrated stat in football is completion %. I pay little attention to that. The minute Luck walked on the field for Indy they were no longer a 2 win team. That's what kind of player he is, regardless of completion %. Same w/ RG3 but that's mainly because of his threat to run. Right now, w/out question I take Luck over RG3. We don't know if RG3 can make it 16 games, or have any type of career because of his knees. I also think we need to see RG3 become more of a pocket passer and get down the nuances of the passing game. I think Luck has that part of the game down already where RG3 needs to get there. I think RG3 really takes that step next year, with hopefully a full off season where he's not doing any rehab.

They weren't a 2 win team the year before with even average qb play.

Separately, why is completion % over-rated? I get that if you are just completing short passes, then the higher number is expected, but certainly, if you take these numbers:

Comp% 65.6 Romo
Yds 4,903
TD 28
INT 19
Rating 90.5

54.1 Luck
4,374
23
18
76.5

56.7 Sanchez
3,474
26
18
78.2

65.6 Griffen
3,200
20
5
102.4

And pulled the exceptional qb out, it wouldn't be Luck's. The passers names are in white font by the completion %

[Skinzman]

I have seen that 2 win argument all to much. Look at it this way. We signed Garcon to be our number 1, who was a number 2 on that 2 win team. He was injured for half the season and played the other half still injured. So RG3 had, at best, a number 3 receiver from that 2 win team as his best receiver for half the season, and an injured number 2 for the other half from that 2 win team. Once Fred went down with his achilles, no one should say that we had better TE's than that 2 win team.

If that 2 win argument holds water, then it was amateur hour for our receivers last year. Yet that is never taken into consideration when judging RG3 versus Luck. The only reason I take Garcon over Wayne now is the 7 or 8 year age difference between them. Reggie Wayne is an elite receiver imo, but probably wont be for much longer.

If i had to choose QB's for a team, I would choose Rex/Beck over the QB's from Indy when they won 2 games. The geriatric coming out of retirement Kerry Collins or the inept Curtis Painter. Even Sanchez looks like a superstar compared to those 2.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

They weren't a 2 win team the year before with even average qb play.

Separately, why is completion % over-rated? I get that if you are just completing short passes, then the higher number is expected, but certainly, if you take these numbers:

Comp% 65.6 Romo
Yds 4,903
TD 28
INT 19
Rating 90.5

54.1 Luck
4,374
23
18
76.5

56.7 Sanchez
3,474
26
18
78.2

65.6 Griffen
3,200
20
5
102.4

And pulled the exceptional qb out, it wouldn't be Luck's. The passers names are in white font by the completion %

Take a guy like Joe Flacco. He's never going to be a 67%-68% passer. Pretty good qb....right? Then you have a guy like Jason Campbell who had a high completion % but was the definition of average. I would never judge a qb with that stat. I look more for intangibles, pass per attempt, 3rd down conversions and td's vs int's.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Take a guy like Joe Flacco. He's never going to be a 67%-68% passer. Pretty good qb....right? Then you have a guy like Jason Campbell who had a high completion % but was the definition of average. I would never judge a qb with that stat. I look more for intangibles, pass per attempt, 3rd down conversions and td's vs int's.

That's a really important stat. RG3 excelled in that regard last season with an astounding 1 pass-per-attempt. Meanwhile, Jake Locker floundered, averaging just 1 pass-per-attempt; he's going to have to improve in that area.