Let's talk OTA's

[SirLK26]

Great post, Gtripp. Not that I agree, because if what you say is the case, it seems a little screwed up to me. Just seems wrong to say that because history suggests the Eagles' offense will regress, they aren't the clear favorites. Do the stats also say that their defense isn't likely to improve? Do the stats say that our offense will improve enough to be equal to theirs even if theirs does regress? Do the stats say that our defense will improve?

I think that data-driven analyses aren't the best way to predict who finishes where in the division, for many reasons. They wouldn't take into account just how good Chip Kelly is at running an offense; in other words, these analyses would factor in all the teams' offenses throughout history run that were run by awful HCs and OCs, not just brilliant offensive gurus like Kelly. These data-driven analyses wouldn't take into account that the Eagles drafted a pass rusher in the 1st round and signed multiple safeties. They wouldn't take into account the fact that RG3 is more of an injury risk than most QBs. And they wouldn't take into account the point you brought out, that Romo and Dez have back issues.

Because of all that and obviously more, I think a non-data driven analysis by an objective person would provide the most accurate view in this situation. Because an analysis of that nature would take into account things that can't be measured. Or maybe I'm completely wrong; maybe your "cold hard fact driven analysis" would actually be more accurate due to the fact that all these things I mentioned are, in fact, too wishy-washy to matter; in other words, I have no idea if any of these things are true, will matter, or will happen, while data provides proof that a certain thing has a certain probabiity that it will actually happen, thus making it more reliable even without out taking into account things of a non-stat nature. Heck, I don't know.

BTW, I would be interested in seeing some of the data you mentioned, particularly the nugget that suggests that the Eagles' offense will regress.