FBO:Inc Pass Breakdown: WRs

[30gut]

More football nerd talk from FBO this time about WRs.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2014 Incomplete Pass Breakdown: Receivers

This metric breaksdown incomplete passes into categories:

Dropped and Defensed

Our last section looks at drops and passes defensed. Defensed is a very gray area for the blame game. Some passes are defensed because the receiver lost the one-on-one battle, but other times the quarterback throws a poor pass that should have been picked off. Drops are unofficial NFL stats because of the subjectivity. As a charter, I like to use the standard of getting two hands on the ball for a catch. If a guy makes a one-handed stab at a pass, that's not a drop. We came up with 791 drops for the 2014 season, but I'm sure you can hand this project over to any other group and they would find different results.

Defensed rate: 36th (out of 86) Garcon 11 passes defensed 10.5%
55th D Jax 7 passes defensed 7.4%

Drop rate: 84th DJax 1 drop rate 1.1%
86th the one and only Pierre Garcon dropped 0, zilch, zed passes for a rate 0.0%

Did you expect Julian Edelman to lead the league with 11 drops, or that Pierre Garcon would be the only wideout without one (minimum 50 targets)? That happened.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by 30gut

<snip>

Drop rate: 84th DJax 1 drop rate 1.1%
86th the one and only Pierre Garcon dropped 0, zilch, zed passes for a rate 0.0%

Meanwhile Roberts is on the opposite end of the spectrum with 6.8% of his targets dropped.

And DeSean had the highest underthrown rate? Shocker.

[That Guy]

roberts is kind of terrible. I was for it at the time, but signing him was a mistake.

[over the mountain]

Originally Posted by That Guy

roberts is kind of terrible. I was for it at the time, but signing him was a mistake.

i feel bad for him in a way. yes he signed an NFL contract and makes more in a year than most of us in 10 years but ..... the guy was looking to go somewhere where he would be the no. 2 and get looks and stats.

his chance to really test and prove himself. as a professional athlete in your prime physical condition i imagine the desire to prove and push yourself is huge.

.... and then d jax becomes surprisingly avail and we sign him relegating roberts back to getting on the field for special packages and plays dependent on down/distance.

roberts did not make the most of his opportunities either.

on a different team, in a different role, i think he would be a serviceable no. 2 target.

but the book is not closed in his time w the skins. injuries could make him a prime target next year and a luxury to have.

ce la vie

[OnceWeWereKings]

I was pro Roberts when we signed him as well...but he did not flourish in his role at all. He was mediocre at best on returns...which was a huge part of signing him, and below mediocre as a receiver...no matter 2nd or 3rd. Very underwhelming.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by OnceWeWereKings

I was pro Roberts when we signed him as well...but he did not flourish in his role at all. He was mediocre at best on returns...which was a huge part of signing him, and below mediocre as a receiver...no matter 2nd or 3rd. Very underwhelming.

Leaves the door wide open for competition at the slot/3rd WR spot.

[MTK]

I wouldn't count out Roberts yet. The offense is still evolving and the coaches need to figure out how to best use the talent they have. I don't think they always did a good job of that last year.

[DYoungJelly]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I wouldn't count out Roberts yet. The offense is still evolving and the coaches need to figure out how to best use the talent they have. I don't think they always did a good job of that last year.

Seems like Roberts had drop in every game last year that would have kept the offense on the field. Not would-be spectacular catches, but real deal drops.

Using him differently might change where his targets are in relation to the defense or impact his run after catch ability, but I'm not sure how it improves his ability to catch the ball.

Would you elaborate?

[Chico23231]

I like our WR corp going into last year and we happened to add another quick slot guy this year. WR wasn't the problem last year,qb and Oline was the problem. I think we may strides in the Oline department, and we need our young qb to finally mature.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I like our WR corp going into last year and we happened to add another quick slot guy this year. WR wasn't the problem last year,qb and Oline was the problem. I think we may strides in the Oline department, and we need our young qb to finally mature.

I think there were many problems last year. So I agree that QB and pass protection were part of the problems on offense (not to mention overall gameplan/strategy).

But, to my eye I would say the receiving corps was part of the problem on offense last year. I think our receivers while they sound/look good on paper aren't as good as most people think.

Neither of our receivers are 'true number 1s' and our TEs are average. Its no surprise that regardless of the QB our 3rd down passing game was below average. We don't have a receiver that we can count on to "win". Garcon is scheme dependent, tough, run after the catch guy....he's not great against press and doesn't gain a lot of separation. DeSean is one of the best deep threats in the league but how often have you seen him make a catch between the numbers? or between the hashes?

When Reed is healthy he can be counted on to "win" but he can be counted on to be healthy.

So...in my opinion while receivers weren't "thee" problem with the offense last year they were part of the problem.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Mattyk

I wouldn't count out Roberts yet. The offense is still evolving and the coaches need to figure out how to best use the talent they have. I don't think they always did a good job of that last year.

Agreed we can't count anyone out. But his play last year and the numbers indicate that he wasn't effective and his position like many others is open to competition next year. And the way the Scott and Jay have been talking about him they seem to be expecting contribution from him. Although it could all be coachspeak.

I know the offense is still evolving and I'll be the first to disagree with many aspects of the offense and how they used the talent.

Is there something specific way you think they could have used Roberts better or just meant in a general sense?

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I think there were many problems last year. So I agree that QB and pass protection were part of the problems on offense (not to mention overall gameplan/strategy).

But, to my eye I would say the receiving corps was part of the problem on offense last year. I think our receivers while they sound/look good on paper aren't as good as most people think.

Neither of our receivers are 'true number 1s' and our TEs are average. Its no surprise that regardless of the QB our 3rd down passing game was below average. We don't have a receiver that we can count on to "win". Garcon is scheme dependent, tough, run after the catch guy....he's not great against press and doesn't gain a lot of separation. DeSean is one of the best deep threats in the league but how often have you seen him make a catch between the numbers? or between the hashes?

When Reed is healthy he can be counted on to "win" but he can be counted on to be healthy.

So...in my opinion while receivers weren't "thee" problem with the offense last year they were part of the problem.

I think in today's passing game the word #1 guy means less and less. U have TE and rb catching a ridiculous amount of balls..schemes develop have everyone involved. Garçon...while I tend to agree with what u said, he did catch 113 just the year before. That's talent...and yes I fully agree with reed.


We really need to get someone in the slot and someone out of the back field to get involved in the passing game.

but I think we will be running the ball first...a lot more. And that will help the passing game more in the long run, if successful.

[SirLK26]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I think in today's passing game the word #1 guy means less and less. U have TE and rb catching a ridiculous amount of balls..schemes develop have everyone involved. Garçon...while I tend to agree with what u said, he did catch 113 just the year before. That's talent...and yes I fully agree with reed.


We really need to get someone in the slot and someone out of the back field to get involved in the passing game.

but I think we will be running the ball first...a lot more. And that will help the passing game more in the long run, if successful.

On a league-high 182 targets, FWIW.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Agreed we can't count anyone out. But his play last year and the numbers indicate that he wasn't effective and his position like many others is open to competition next year. And the way the Scott and Jay have been talking about him they seem to be expecting contribution from him. Although it could all be coachspeak.



I know the offense is still evolving and I'll be the first to disagree with many aspects of the offense and how they used the talent.



Is there something specific way you think they could have used Roberts better or just meant in a general sense?

Just utilizing our talent better in a general sense.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

I think in today's passing game the word #1 guy means less and less. U have TE and rb catching a ridiculous amount of balls..schemes develop have everyone involved. Garçon...while I tend to agree with what u said, he did catch 113 just the year before. That's talent...and yes I fully agree with reed.

I think something is getting lost in translation here. When I say #1 receiver I don't mean just a receiver that catches a lot of passes.
When I say #1 receiver I'm talking about the Dez Bryants, Jordy Nelsons, AJ Greens, Julio Jones etc.
To me a #1 receiver is someone you can line-up at the X or the Z and expect them to 'win' against man, zone, in the redzone and even when doubled. I don't think having a #1 receiver will ever mean less regardless of how many catches RBs have or how schemes change.

And don't get me wrong I'm not saying Garcon is a bad receiver just that he's not a #1 and that our receiving corps has room for improvement.

but I think we will be running the ball first...a lot more. And that will help the passing game more in the long run, if successful.

Hopefully that will be the direction the offense moves this year.