Not drafting a QB a mistake?

[Skinzman]

Originally Posted by 30gut

I think we can discuss draft choices without wandering off into speculation or dealing in maybes. But as this thread illustrates, its not the only way.

Every team has a draft board and most teams say they pick best player available. If a team says they stayed true to their board it doesn't necessarily make them right. Only time can answer that question. So back to your example lets say a team liked Russell Wilson but figured he would be available in the 5th round (or like the Redskins admitted the 4th round) but Wilson gets taken in the 3rd round then yes the teams that passed on him with the thought that he would be available later miscalculated his availability and therefore made a mistake. It happens all the time, even the best GM hit about a rate of ~60 so there will be mistakes/misses of omission or commission every draft. So extending your line of though further (even though its not my point in regards to the QB) Bill Parcels or Polian one of the 2 says 'its better to take a player you like 1 round early then 1 pick to late'

If a GM is deciding who to draft based on where they think they will go, then the GM messed up. They need to scout the players and apply a ranking to them. If Shanny had Russell Wilson as a 2nd or 3rd rounder, and chose not to draft him until the 4th round for the simple reason that he thought he would be there, then he did not stay true to his board. So no... thats not my line of thought at all.

They need to base their board on their scouting acumen and not the perception of what 31 other teams will do. If you have a guy rated as a 5th rounder and then panic and grab him in the 3rd because you convinced yourself that he would be taken by another team then, then all you did was panic and not stay true to your board. You passed over a lot of players that you had rated higher due to panic. If you have a guy rated as a 3rd rounder but pass on him in rounds 3 and 4 because you believe he will be there in the 5th, then you did not stay true to your board.

If you base QB's above all else, then that will come out when you are rating players and deciding on your draft order. If you are desperate for a safety, then that will come out when you rate the player. Once you have that complete though, stay the course.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

If a GM is deciding who to draft based on where they think they will go, then the GM messed up...

Well GMs make that gamble all the time. They set their board and they try project where the other teams rank/rate players and they try to find out which teams like which players.That how/why teams trade up to get 'in front' of other teams.

They also adjust their board as the draft unfolds. If their is a run a certain position then naturally the other prospects at that position get moved up...etc...

No GM wants to draft a player, even if they like that player, higher then they need to. GMs talk all the time about wanting a player and thinking/hoping a player will fall to them and sweating it out..sometimes they're right but sometimes their wrong.

[Skinzman]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Well GMs make that gamble all the time. They set their board and they try project where the other teams rank/rate players and they try to find out which teams like which players.That how/why teams trade up to get 'in front' of other teams.

They also adjust their board as the draft unfolds. If their is a run a certain position then naturally the other prospects at that position get moved up...etc...

No GM wants to draft a player, even if they like that player, higher then they need to. GMs talk all the time about wanting a player and thinking/hoping a player will fall to them and sweating it out..sometimes they're right but sometimes their wrong.

When you move a player from round 4 to round 2 all because there was a run on that position late in round 1, then you dont value your own ratings. You are jumping a guy 60 spots based on what other teams did, not based on what you believe.

Also, why bring up the quote of 'take a player one round early, not 1 pick late' and then turn around and talk about waiting to draft a player based on your feel of what 31 other teams will do? 2 ends of the spectrum that can never go hand in hand with each other.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

When you move a player from round 4 to round 2 all because there was a run on that position late in round 1, then you dont value your own ratings. You are jumping a guy 60 spots based on what other teams did, not based on what you believe.

Um yeah obviously jumping a prospect up some 60 odd spots because of a run at that position is unwise. Its also something I didn't suggest. So yeah describing an obviously poor decision doesn't have anything to do with what I was saying. Its not quite a strawman but its close.

An example of adjusting a draft board at a position happened with WRs the past 2 seasons. A team might have a say a 2nd round grade on Nelson Agoholor or Kelvin Benjamin but based on how the draft played out if you didn't take them round 1 you weren't getting them.

Also, why bring up the quote of 'take a player one round early, not 1 pick late' and then turn around and talk about waiting to draft a player based on your feel of what 31 other teams will do? 2 ends of the spectrum that can never go hand in hand with each other.

I don't understand your point here.

The draft is fluid not static.

There are many different scenarios and situations at play that are interrelated and require different means of management. So sure sometimes Bill's idiom of 'better 1 round early then 1 pick' is the right approach for certain situations or like a Russell Wilson and many other Seattle "reaches" or sometimes waiting on a hidden gem that your scouts and coaching staff have identified undervalued is the right play as in a Alfred Morris or a Keenan Robinson.

[Skinzman]

Originally Posted by 30gut

Um yeah obviously jumping a prospect up some 60 odd spots because of a run at that position is unwise. Its also something I didn't suggest. So yeah describing an obviously poor decision doesn't have anything to do with what I was saying. Its not quite a strawman but its close.

An example of adjusting a draft board at a position happened with WRs the past 2 seasons. A team might have a say a 2nd round grade on Nelson Agoholor or Kelvin Benjamin but based on how the draft played out if you didn't take them round 1 you weren't getting them.


I don't understand your point here.

The draft is fluid not static.

There are many different scenarios and situations at play that are interrelated and require different means of management. So sure sometimes Bill's idiom of 'better 1 round early then 1 pick' is the right approach for certain situations or like a Russell Wilson and many other Seattle "reaches" or sometimes waiting on a hidden gem that your scouts and coaching staff have identified undervalued is the right play as in a Alfred Morris or a Keenan Robinson.

Listening to the Seattle brain trust, they never considered themselves reaching for Wilson. They picked him where they rated him. They just consider themselves better talent evaluators than the rest, which hasnt been proven false as of yet.

The same is very possible for the 2 WRs you listed. You are basing a team reaching on pundits or your own opinion. Can you guarantee that no team had Benjamin or Agohlor as a 1st rounder, even if late in the round? You say that boards were altered the last 2 drafts based on WRs as if it were fact, then go on a story that starts with might. You present it as fact, then tell a story thats based on assumption.

[30gut]

Originally Posted by Skinzman

Listening to the Seattle brain trust, they never considered themselves reaching for Wilson. They picked him where they rated him. They just consider themselves better talent evaluators than the rest, which hasnt been proven false as of yet.

Your playing semantics here. Of course the team doing the picking doesn't consider their draft selection a reach, that's obvious.
Draft media have often referred to Seattle picks as 'reaches' in the past but the term 'reach' when it comes to the draft is subjective just like the term 'value' its a relative each of the 32 teams.