The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by MTK

He won’t walk for nothing technically, worst case we get a compensatory pick.

Right, which is one of the reasons a trade is implausible. If he walks in free agency we get a 2019 3rd rounder as a compensatory pick.

So for a trade to make sense for us, a 3rd rounder is the starting point, and then you have to layer on additional compensation for us to consider taking the risk that Kirk might sign and play under the one year 34M tag deal.

So you’d be asking a team to not only sign Kirk to the largest QB contract in history (because remember nobody is trading for him unless they are assured he’ll sign long term), but also give up a 2nd rounder at minimum.

He’s frankly just not that good. No team will do it.

He will either sign with us, play under our tag again, or walk in free agency. There will be no trade.

[WillH]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Right, which is one of the reasons a trade is implausible. If he walks in free agency we get a 2019 3rd rounder as a compensatory pick.

So for a trade to make sense for us, a 3rd rounder is the starting point, and then you have to layer on additional compensation for us to consider taking the risk that Kirk might sign and play under the one year 34M tag deal.

So you’d be asking a team to not only sign Kirk to the largest QB contract in history (because remember nobody is trading for him unless they are assured he’ll sign long term), but also give up a 2nd rounder at minimum.

He’s frankly just not that good. No team will do it.

He will either sign with us, play under our tag again, or walk in free agency. There will be no trade.

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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[jamf]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Garoppolo is easier to sign and his upside is probably better than Kirks.

The 49ers could still tag him for a few years or just offer 20M per year for a player with only a handful of starts.

Not only is KC looking to be the highest paid player ever, any team that trades for him has zero leverage in signing him except for maybe Kirk doesn’t want to move again.
The Redskins made Kirk into a mercenary, It’s all about the money right now.

Also, The Patriots settled for a 2nd because they knew Garoppolo wouldn’t be back and they have Brady.

Bruce is probably asking for a 1st so we can draft a qb.
No one is going to pay a 1st and the richest nfl contract ever for KC.

[WillH]

Originally Posted by jamf

Garoppolo is easier to sign and his upside is probably better than Kirks.

The 49ers could still tag him for a few years or just offer 20M per year for a player with only a handful of starts.

Not only is KC looking to be the highest paid player ever, any team that trades for him has zero leverage in signing him except for maybe Kirk doesn’t want to move again.
The Redskins made Kirk into a mercenary, It’s all about the money right now.

Also, The Patriots settled for a 2nd because they knew Garoppolo wouldn’t be back and they have Brady.

Bruce is probably asking for a 1st so we can draft a qb.
No one is going to pay a 1st and the richest nfl contract ever for KC.

Don't you think they'd come down to a 2nd if they didn't have a better offer from a team he was willing to sign long term with though?

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[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by WillH

San Fran just gave up a 2nd for Garoppolo, I don't understand why you're so sure no-one would do the same for Kirk.

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Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

Explain how.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

This is not an absolute. We are on the outside looking in...I think a reasonable front office put in a similar situation would could effectively get a franchise tag trade done. The major issue we are facing with this approach is not Cousins, its our Front office folks with a history record of fucking up with QB transactions. I think its much tougher thing to pull off just based on our decision makers. Very little trust there.

And additionally, help me with the timing. How are you ensuring that the situation is resolved before free agency opens?

Remember, you've got to know how much cap space you have to work with when free agency opens, otherwise you can't be active in that first week.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

And additionally, help me with the timing. How are you ensuring that the situation is resolved before free agency opens?

Remember, you've got to know how much cap space you have to work with when free agency opens, otherwise you can't be active in that first week.

and that's my issue...I don't know all the time...what's allowed and what's not.

First and foremost: Now if we don't want Cousins as a QB and don't offer a deal, then let him walk...but this would be the most epically poor free handling of a QB of all time. You let an asset walk at all time high value with zero in return? lol, wow...historically bad business decision. What was the point to bring him back last year with that final deal offered? poor...this is why I state I have zero faith in the decision makers.

How to get Cousins franchise tag traded:

I think you get Cousins team together asap..or when its allowed. And make him a big boy offer....Because we do want him to be our QB, right? If we make him an offer that is legit (top 1 or 2 paid QB in the league) and he hesitates, rejects it or simply says I don't want to be here...then its not about the money then clearly its about him wanting to leave. I would explain time invested and the money we have paid to him the last couple years as part of that commitment. Let him know we will allow him to negotiate with team he wants and the franchise tag applies as compensation. Allow him to negotiate a deal and we can work out compensation according to tag rules. But be firm with him...once we offered a great deal and you say no, we have officially moved on at the QB spot.

I think 'war game' stuff...you can point to San Fran moving on Jimmy G where teams simply moved on from Cousins as an option. If we wants to play the "well, I want to stay now because of the tag" after stating he wanted to leave...Point to the Josh Norman situation where Carolina released him when everyone had spent all their big bucks elsewhere late in summer. Teams aren't going to wait for Cousins, look at the draft...I guarantee 5 QBs being draft first round. Teams will not wait, they are moving on.

I would look at this as a joint venture, tell Cousins we want the best for you and we want fair compensation. Work together to quickly get it done.

Franchise QB don't hit the market very often, I would imagine 5-7 teams would line up immediately and have serious contracts prepared.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

and that's my issue...I don't know all the time...what's allowed and what's not.

First and foremost: Now if we don't want Cousins as a QB and don't offer a deal, then let him walk...but this would be the most epically poor free handling of a QB of all time. You let an asset walk at all time high value with zero in return? lol, wow...historically bad business decision. What was the point to bring him back last year with that final deal offered? poor...this is why I state I have zero faith in the decision makers.

How to get Cousins franchise tag traded:

I think you get Cousins team together asap..or when its allowed. And make him a big boy offer....Because we do want him to be our QB, right? If we make him an offer that is legit (top 1 or 2 paid QB in the league) and he hesitates, rejects it or simply says I don't want to be here...then its not about the money then clearly its about him wanting to leave. I would explain time invested and the money we have paid to him the last couple years as part of that commitment. Let him know we will allow him to negotiate with team he wants and the franchise tag applies as compensation. Allow him to negotiate a deal and we can work out compensation according to tag rules. But be firm with him...once we offered a great deal and you say no, we have officially moved on at the QB spot.

I think 'war game' stuff...you can point to San Fran moving on Jimmy G where teams simply moved on from Cousins as an option. If we wants to play the "well, I want to stay now because of the tag" after stating he wanted to leave...Point to the Josh Norman situation where Carolina released him when everyone had spent all their big bucks elsewhere late in summer. Teams aren't going to wait for Cousins, look at the draft...I guarantee 5 QBs being draft first round. Teams will not wait, they are moving on.

I would look at this as a joint venture, tell Cousins we want the best for you and we want fair compensation. Work together to quickly get it done.

Franchise QB don't hit the market very often, I would imagine 5-7 teams would line up immediately and have serious contracts prepared.

So to be clear, you're saying make your best offer, and if he says no then slap the $34M franchise tag on him, and hold onto him as long as possible to make a trade?

What if he signs the $34M the second you put the tag on him, as he's done the past two years? It's a guaranteed contract at that point. You can't release him at that point. The second he signs it you lose complete control. He gets 100% control over whether he wants to negotiate a trade with other teams or whether he wants to collect $34M from you.

To say nothing of what carrying a $34M QB does to your cap when free agency opens on March 6. It's a non starter.

We really need to brush up on what the franchise tag means, in terms of cap space, in terms of what happens when it's signed, in terms of deadlines, all of that. There seems to be so much misunderstanding that you guys are coming up with cockamamie schemes to extract value for him, but you'd actually put the Redskins even further behind the 8 ball.

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by metalskins

I was under the impression that we couldn't get anything for Cousins, whether if he outright walks or if the 'skins slapped the transition tag on him.

"The snag with the transition tag is that, while Washington has the option to match any offer sheet Cousins receives from other teams, the team would not get any compensation if it declines to match and Cousins leaves."
If redskins don't sign Kirk Cousins to LTD, would Transition Tag be in play?

I think they mean we would not get any compensation from other teams. It doesn't mean we wouldn't get a compensatory selection.

[metalskins]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

I think they mean we would not get any compensation from other teams. It doesn't mean we wouldn't get a compensatory selection.

Oh, OK. That makes sense.

[WillH]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Because New England was smart about managing their leverage. They recognized that their last chance to trade Jimmy G was at the trade deadline. If he was still a Patriot at the end of the season, their only route for attempting to trade him would have been to apply a tag. But that would have been a huge risk, because what if he signed the deal?

Basically they foresaw the situation we're now in with Cousins, and they avoided it by getting what they could when they had their last chance.

But to be fair, they could afford to trade him midseason too, since Brady was their starter. We didn't have that luxury with Cousins, he's our starter.

Now though, with Cousins a pending free agent, teams know they don't have to trade a 2nd rounder for him. Why? War game it with me:

- If you transition tag him for $28M, you don't actually give yourself any leverage. All it takes is for Cousins to sign an offer sheet with a team, then your only threat to retain him is to match it. And if we haven't been serious about paying $27M per season yet, why would we match one that has that (or more)? Our position is as transparent as can be - teams will know that all they have to do is structure a contract high enough, and we won't match.

- If you franchise tag him for $34M then you maintain leverage. You can give him permission to work out a deal with other teams, sure. But we've been down this road, you know what he'll do. He'll sign it and play under the tag for $34M. Maybe, as you say, he'll be more interested in getting settled long term and thus want to work a deal to get away. But can you risk that? Because remember, until a trade is struck, he sits there occupying $34M in cap space, in March, at the beginning of free agency when you could really use the cap space to do other things. So you'd be entering free agency with a great deal of uncertainty at QB, unable to make any long term plans, unable to go out to sign defensive upgrades, and possibly missing out on the other QB options while you wait for the Cousins situation to resolve itself.

It's not going to happen. The Redskins know all the leverage sits with Cousins, and until the situation resolves itself they have no ability to form a long term plan. I'd submit you can't tag him, knowing there's a distinct possibility he'll sign and play for $34M. If you do, you're risking a great deal just to try to acquire a bit more than what you'd get if you just let him walk (a 3rd rounder).

Hmmm... I think the argument about cap space during free agency is a good one. They would still have 20mil+ in space and they can restructure and release a few players, but I do think you're right that they would be hampered. I'll have to think a bit that some.

BTW... letting him go would be bring a conditional 3rd next year right? That's much less value than a higher 3rd this year FWIW.

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[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by WillH

Hmmm... I think the argument about cap space during free agency is a good one. They would still have 20mil+ in space and they can restructure and release a few players, but I do think you're right that they would be hampered. I'll have to think a bit that some.

BTW... letting him go would be bring a conditional 3rd next year right? That's much less value than a higher 3rd this year FWIW.

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Not conditional. A guaranteed 3rd rounder as a compensatory selection. It would come at the end of the 3rd round in 2019.