The FINAL Kirk Cousins Saga thread. 5.0

[Schneed10]

Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.

But one thought for you to consider. If you know that Kirk’s desired team is Denver, couldn’t Elway know that? Follow me here. If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?

If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.

Wondering your thoughts on that. Still, your position has caused me to reconsider my previously dismissive stance on the possibility. But I ultimately don’t like our chances for this simple reason: I don’t think Bruce Allen is half as smart as you. Welcome to the board.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Macro welcome to the site. I read through everything you wrote and find your case quite compelling.
...
If Cousins signs the tag immediately so that he can then get permission from the Redskins to seek a trade partner, what would stop Mike McCartney and Elway from discussing terms, and agreeing to patiently wait the Redskins out?

Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Macro

Wait them out for what though? If Cousins doesn't sign the tag he's only hurting his own market. If he signs it and Elway refuses to offer any draft pick compensation in a trade, all that does is ensure that Elway doesn't get his guy and that Cousins ends up in Buffalo (or wherever he doesn't want to be) having to deal with a different front office going through the same old song and dance of the one year tags and awkward LTC negotiations.

Compliance from all parties ensures everyone gets something that they want.


That's the whole thing about the Combine preceding the tag deadline. The premise is that trade negotiations, laying out each step, identifying each move and counter move, all occurs in Indy, before any tag is placed.


We already know that teams and agents are going to be discussing contracts during the Combine week. There's no need for the Skins to place the tag prior to getting an in-principal agreement there in Indy. The tag isn't needed for Bruce to talk to McCartney, or McCartney to Elway.

It's about getting the in-principal deal done, then executing it in actual sense, starting with the tag prior to March 6th. Which is why the Combine taking place between March 2nd and 5th is the perfect testing grounds.

As you know, if the franchise tag is used, Cousins has only two choices, either sign it or not. So ... for all the reasons in the world he'll sign it.

And once that happens his contract is owned property.


The end game for Bruce in Indy, as I see it, is that once all those various things are established, one after another, that of Cousins having a market, identifying whichever team is his preferred choice, that the valuation of Cousins in trade (3rd rounder) is reasonable and cross correlated with recent trade precedent (Alex Smith) in the QB market no less, that the Redskins will indeed force the issue with a tag and a team would need to trade ... "something" in order to secure his rights, that teams like the Jets are desperate for a QB and that they are a wildcard being that they are positioned behind both Denver and Cleveland not only in the draft but also by way of outward Front Office appearance, that they'd be a team willing to meet the threshold asking price with ease if not escalate the bids, I assume that at that point Bruce dealing with both McCartney and whichever team they see as the best fit, their #1, Bruce and Scheffer would produce a legal document where Bruce would attest to send Cousins to his team of choice.

And additionally they (Bruce) would want McCartney to sign that document as well to ensure compliance. That the LTC McCartney/Cousins wants from their #1 team is their own bag, 'get what you want' is what Bruce would say. It's not up to Bruce to worry about the LTC. He just needs to sell that Cousins still gets his choice and that Cousins needs to tell Bruce who his favorite team is, because otherwise Bruce is bound to sell him to Buffalo for a bag of peanuts.

Yes, the Redskins would have to bluff going to crazytown.

But from there a timetable would be established where things happen in sequential order. The tag occurs. Then Cousins signs it at a pre determined date, like March 9th. Which leaves plenty of scramble time in case that McCartney decides to do something duplicitous, like you suggested.

The idea of the affidavit occurred to me when toiling with the Franchise tag versus the Transition tag.

Something along the lines of (assuming all parties had agreed to the idea of a trade for Cousins' rights on the transition tag and Cousins had also agreed in principal to the contract being written by his #1 team), that IF McCartney/Cousins did not show up at the predetermined date of March 9th, that the transition tag would be dissolved and it would revert to the Franchise tag, thus taking away McCartney and Cousins' ability to just head out on March 14th under the transition tag and sign an offer sheet, which would screw with the Redskins cap if all they wanted to do was match and flip him right back.

Offering the transition tag part is simply a ploy by Bruce after it's established that the franchise tag dictates that Cousins can choose only to sign it or not.

If a team is interested in Cousins, all Bruce has to say is: "would you rather trade for him at 28 million or 34 million?" And of course every team showing interest in Cousins is going to say 28. Therefore, it actually becomes the other teams, ideally Cousins' #1 team, who are the ones to compel him to sign the TT and relinquish his CBA rights to freely solicit offer sheets.

The teams trying to obtain Cousins become the agents of pressure instead of Bruce.

It ends up being the suitor team which sells Cousins on compliance, not Bruce. Which is actually kind-of smart, because people keep conflating that this is somehow Cousins doing Bruce a favor, when in fact it's Cousins doing his new team a favor, giving them a lower entry price, as well as ensuring he gets to where he wants to be by being clear and upfront, instead of ending up somewhere just like the Redskins org but colder.

I'm impressed at your ability to think multiple moves ahead.

But I'm still struggling with why Elway would find it necessary to give up a 3rd rounder and Talib (or whatever the price is). I'm not convinced that Elway would feel the pressure to make that deal with the Skins. His reason for doing so would be to preclude other teams from coming to the Skins and making a trade offer, and from making a lucrative contract offer to Cousins.

But if Elway can establish via discussions with McCartney and Cousins that he has assurances that Cousins wants to be a Bronco, couldn't he tell Allen that the Broncos will play no part in a trade offer?

That then puts Allen in the position of deciding whether he's going to crazytown or whether he'll never apply the tag at all.

My concern is that at the combine, if you give Cousins the opportunity to meet with the Broncos and work out a contract, couldn't they have conversations that say listen I want to be a Bronco, give me that good deal and you won't need to trade picks to the Skins.

The key is preventing Cousins from having a discussion on contract like that with Elway without first getting an assurance from Elway that he would trade picks. As you say, I suppose if the Redskins can sequence the order of events properly, they can maintain the upper hand in discussions. They'd want those assurances from Elway, and then and only then would they allow Cousins permission to speak with them about a contract.

But man, it's a huge sequence of dominoes that have to fall just right. The Redskins have to think through it, set all the dominoes up, and make sure nobody's finger accidentally knocks one over too soon.

I hope you're right.

[Macro]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

If Elway were to get assurances from McCartney that Cousins would wait to sign with Denver, what would stop Cousins from sitting on the tag until April when FA was ostensibly over? If he knows what his preferred destination is, and if his preferred destination gets some assurances, I think that puts Denver/Cousins in position to call Allen’s bluff. All the while free agent opportunities pass the Redskins by.

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by Macro

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

The whole thing seems like way too much effort all for like a 3rd round pick. There are easier ways to get more picks, mainly trading down in draft, that lets Cousins go where he wants and saves all the scrutiny from the media and fans. Plus our track record practically guarantees this blows up in our faces.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Macro

Well, wait to April for what? To make the Redskins itch and finally cave and rescind the Tag? Or wait until April to come in and sign the Tag?

I believe that ultimately any ploy Cousins tries in not signing the tag actually negatively affects him and his market. I've argued that the only thing that act ensures is that the teams who want him, but see nothing but uncertainty, are going to get antsy themselves and start making decisions both in FA and the draft without knowing what his deal is, or when he might even be available.

He would only be hurting his earnings power as teams across the league, who would have otherwise offered him a contract, just allocate that money elsewhere.


So, not only would Cousins be holding hostage the Skins cap but he'd also be impacting his "new team's" cap by making them sit out FA in any real sense.
Those free agent opportunities also pass Elway and the Broncos bye as well, though. Assuming that's his team.

That's the thing for me, not only would the Redskins have to keep the cap space neccessaory for the tag and trade, but so too would Denver have to keep their cap space in order to sign Cousins were the Tag to be rescinded.


Folks have argued that Cousins would not agree to any tag and trade scenario because it would impact his new team by making them spend a draft pick, but Cousins not signing the tag makes his new team wait out FA too, makes them not spend money in FA to improve their team.

So, seems pretty defeating to me if one argues that any team trading for Cousins' contractual rights would be totally adverse to Cousins himself, while he'd willing enact a pact with Elway where they just wait out FA to see if the Skins break and rescind the Tag.

This is an excellent point.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This is an excellent point.

Which as I have said before a team like Denver doesn't want to wait and see with KC, they WANT him now

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Which as I have said before a team like Denver doesn't want to wait and see with KC, they WANT him now

That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.

I have said that too, 23M? Maybe but I still think the offer last yr which was reported to be 20+ a year was a great offer. In the end I dont see a trade happening but I don't blame the team for trying to get a good pick for kirk

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

That is the key assumption in all of this. It is very much within the realm of possibility that Denver, or other teams, could decide that they like Cousins but don't love him, so to speak.

Meaning that if Washington wants to force a 3rd rounder and a player as compensation, the Broncos could very well say nah you know what, we're good. We'll pursue another player as a bridge and draft somebody to groom.

In this thought exercise we're assuming there's a major market for Cousins. We'll find out just how major.

I'd argue myself that he's not worth $27M per season, let alone worth $27M plus a trade package. We'll see.

Exactly, it's hard to see Denver specifically trading for KC with the possibility of Foles, the 3 Vikings qbs, and the draft. I think it's MUCH more likely that Denver trades for Nick Foles (for example) and gives up their 2nd round pick. Philly gains cap space. Denver can sign Foles to an Alex Smith type deal, taking this years cap hit at around 10M, and still cut Talib, leaving them with a +25M cap space.

The only team with enough cap space to make the sign and trade remotely plausible is the Jets. (Cleveland too, but KC is not signing up for Cleveland)

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This is an excellent point.

not really, because signing KC basically eats up Denver's cap space anyways. So they won't be players. The Broncos according to Overthecap have about 27M in cap space. If they are intent on signing KC, they aren't 1st week players in FA anyways.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

not really, because signing KC basically eats up Denver's cap space anyways. So they won't be players. The Broncos according to Overthecap have about 27M in cap space. If they are intent on signing KC, they aren't 1st week players in FA anyways.

They have been rumored to be cutting big $ guys like Talib coming up and probably others like Thomas if they need too.