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ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Old 06-12-2018, 03:32 PM   #1
skinsfaninok
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Originally Posted by Schneed10 View Post
For the analytically challenged among us, the chart is sorted based on the differential between a player's passer rating when not under pressure and his passer rating when under pressure.

That doesn't answer my question but you can still use it. The darker the green in the second to last column, the better the player is under pressure.

Passer rating under pressure looks exactly as you'd expect it would:

1) Aaron Rodgers 105.0
2) Russell Wilson 103.0
3) Tyrod Taylor 99.4
4) Tom Brady 99.0
5) Ben Roethlisberger 97.4

Gotta go a long way down to find Alex Smith, with a rating of 77.6, and Cousins with 82.7.

But the key to keep in mind is PFF still uses passer rating, instead of ESPN's proprietary QBR. QBR takes into account yards gained on the ground and whether they converted to first downs or not. These passer rating stats do not.

As we know, Smith is among the league leaders in those stats. So this data from PFF should be interpreted as rating when the QB throws the ball while under pressure.

If you take into account first downs gained via scramble, Alex Smith would vault up the list.
Smith was one of the best on 3rd down last yr and has been for a while now, we will def benefit from having him back there. Although Kirk ranked in the top 5 of deep pass attempts on 3&10 or less, he didn't connect on them often.

Last season nobody faced more pressure more than RW, and he was insanely good. I've been given the task of gathering stats for College QB's coming into this yr, pretty cool stuff.
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Old 06-27-2018, 12:28 PM   #2
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Smith was one of the best on 3rd down last yr and has been for a while now
This is absolutely, unquestionably incorrect. Alex Smith is NOT a good QB on 3rd down, and never has been. He ranked 22nd in the NFL last year. 22nd isnt "one of the best" in my eyes.

stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=&year=

He is the king of completing a 4 yard dump off pass when you need 7 yards. It is one of the many things that drove me nuts about him the past 5 years. His completion percentage on 3rd down often looks great, but his conversion rate is almost always pathetic.
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Old 06-27-2018, 12:53 PM   #3
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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This is absolutely, unquestionably incorrect. Alex Smith is NOT a good QB on 3rd down, and never has been. He ranked 22nd in the NFL last year. 22nd isnt "one of the best" in my eyes.

stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=&year=

He is the king of completing a 4 yard dump off pass when you need 7 yards. It is one of the many things that drove me nuts about him the past 5 years. His completion percentage on 3rd down often looks great, but his conversion rate is almost always pathetic.
So the receivers ran their routes far enough and Smith refused to throw the ball to them unless they came back a few yards?
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Old 06-27-2018, 12:58 PM   #4
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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So the receivers ran their routes far enough and Smith refused to throw the ball to them unless they came back a few yards?
Alex Smith often doesnt let plays develop. He is quick to get the ball out to the short man. He comes off of his progressions WAY too fast, and often moves off of his primary or initial secondary target right before that player breaks open. Its maddening.

Regardless, year after year, Alex is below average at 3rd down conversion rate relative to his peers.

High completion percentage. High passer rating. Low conversion percentage. Unfortunately, the conversion rate is the important part, and Alex has never been good at that.
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Old 06-27-2018, 02:08 PM   #5
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Alex Smith often doesnt let plays develop. He is quick to get the ball out to the short man. He comes off of his progressions WAY too fast, and often moves off of his primary or initial secondary target right before that player breaks open. Its maddening.

Regardless, year after year, Alex is below average at 3rd down conversion rate relative to his peers.

High completion percentage. High passer rating. Low conversion percentage. Unfortunately, the conversion rate is the important part, and Alex has never been good at that.
Thanks for the info. Gruden's offense is designed so that there is almost always an open receiver somewhere. In addition, most of our dump off guys (Crowder, Thompson, Reed, Davis) are pretty good at YAC. While I have no expectation that Smith will abandon his dump-off ways, I am hopeful that we have a coach and players that will be able to make that a strength - or at least not a crippling weakness. lol
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Old 08-01-2018, 02:18 PM   #6
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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alex smith often doesnt .... Let plays develop. He is quick to get the ball out to the short man. He comes off of his progressions way too fast, and often moves off of his primary or initial secondary target right before that player breaks open. Its maddening.

Regardless, year after year, alex is below average at 3rd down conversion rate relative to his peers.

High completion percentage. High passer rating. Low conversion percentage. Unfortunately, the conversion rate is the important part, and alex has never been good at that.
[rockvoice] IT DOESN'T MATTER, what he doesn't [/rockvoice]
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:08 PM   #7
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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[rockvoice] IT DOESN'T MATTER, what he doesn't [/rockvoice]
Unfortunately, what he doesnt often overshadows what he does. Which is why two teams moved on from him in the middle of playoff runs.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:20 PM   #8
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Unfortunately, what he doesnt often overshadows what he does. Which is why two teams moved on from him in the middle of playoff runs.
Wait until Mahomes is out of the NFL in 4 years and Smith is still playing.
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Old 08-07-2018, 09:31 AM   #9
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Unfortunately, what he doesnt often overshadows what he does. Which is why two teams moved on from him in the middle of playoff runs.
Thanks for your initial input but really, why are you still hanging around?
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Old 11-13-2018, 07:36 PM   #10
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Originally Posted by kcVisitor View Post
Alex Smith often doesnt let plays develop. He is quick to get the ball out to the short man. He comes off of his progressions WAY too fast, and often moves off of his primary or initial secondary target right before that player breaks open. Its maddening.



Regardless, year after year, Alex is below average at 3rd down conversion rate relative to his peers.



High completion percentage. High passer rating. Low conversion percentage. Unfortunately, the conversion rate is the important part, and Alex has never been good at that.


Pretty much exactly what I see every week. Maddening is a good word. Lol. You must be overjoyed at Mahomes. 9 teams going to be kicking themselves for years to come about not taking him.
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Old 06-27-2018, 04:14 PM   #11
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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Originally Posted by kcVisitor View Post
This is absolutely, unquestionably incorrect. Alex Smith is NOT a good QB on 3rd down, and never has been. He ranked 22nd in the NFL last year. 22nd isnt "one of the best" in my eyes.

stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=&year=

He is the king of completing a 4 yard dump off pass when you need 7 yards. It is one of the many things that drove me nuts about him the past 5 years. His completion percentage on 3rd down often looks great, but his conversion rate is almost always pathetic.
That was KCousins to a tee, so any chance AS has to be better will be good for us. He won't be worse.
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Old 06-28-2018, 01:50 AM   #12
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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That was KCousins to a tee, so any chance AS has to be better will be good for us. He won't be worse.
Main improvement should be less turnovers. He's very safe with the ball (to a point he's been criticized for it, but I'm fine with that!).
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Old 06-28-2018, 07:57 AM   #13
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

I'm pretty excited to see us have a chance to actually compete in a prime time game. We've been pretty terrible in those for quite some time now.
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Old 06-28-2018, 09:03 AM   #14
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Re: ALEX SMITH and moving forward.

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I'm pretty excited to see us have a chance to actually compete in a prime time game. We've been pretty terrible in those for quite some time now.
especially the dome ones
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