Election Day Thread - Nov. 3, 2020

[SunnySide]

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).

Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.

On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...den-way-ahead/

Wisconsin - Biden
Michigan - Biden
Minnesota - Biden

Iowa - toss up leaning Biden

[mooby]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state that Trump carried by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).

Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.

On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...den-way-ahead/

Wisconsin - Biden
Michigan - Biden
Minnesota - Biden

Iowa - toss up leaning Biden

Stop it Sunny, really don't want to get my hopes up. Better to be prepared for disappointment because anything less than a blowout and Trump will be litigating all the way to a stacked Supreme Court.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by mooby

Stop it Sunny, really don't want to get my hopes up. Better to be prepared for disappointment because anything less than a blowout and Trump will be litigating all the way to a stacked Supreme Court.

It will be a blowout for Biden because libs are far more active than reps, and Biden is far more acceptable to antiTrump republicans than Clinton was last time around.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

It will be a blowout for Biden because libs are far more active than reps, and Biden is far more acceptable to antiTrump republicans than Clinton was last time around.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Imagine what a blowout it would be if the GOP actually made it easy for everyone to vote, instead of fighting it. God forbid everyone has a say....

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Imagine what a blowout it would be if the GOP actually made it easy for everyone to vote, instead of fighting it. God forbid everyone has a say....

That would be against their best interest.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

It will be a blowout for Biden because libs are far more active than reps, and Biden is far more acceptable to antiTrump republicans than Clinton was last time around.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

I think Trump will win. I think Sunny posted an article about of the 9 million voters in PA about half have requested mail in and only half have been received. There are going to be too many people who go aw f it and not mail it in. Any time voter turn out is low it favors Republicans IMO. They are the more consistent voting block.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

It will be a blowout for Biden because libs are far more active than reps, and Biden is far more acceptable to antiTrump republicans than Clinton was last time around.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Nahhh, you guys are the real diehards. I have a 45yo coworker voting this year because his mom is pressuring him to. He's never voted before (and probably never will again after this election) simply because he doesn't think it will change anything for the better. And there is a lot more people out there that think along those lines too.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by mooby

Nahhh, you guys are the real diehards. I have a 45yo coworker voting this year because his mom is pressuring him to. He's never voted before (and probably never will again after this election) simply because he doesn't think it will change anything for the better. And there is a lot more people out there that think along those lines too.

Agree. I think a higher % of everyone to the right of Democrats vote higher by %.

Democrats don't win by % of party voters who exercise their right to vote, it's a sheer volume game. 51% of 200 is more than 100% of 100.

Hence why anything that decreases the number of total votes, the democratic party (the leadership, not every individual voter) fights tooth and nail against. Like such things as requiring an ID to vote (throw out 2020, this is about all the previous elections in my lifetime).