Wft quarterback of the future

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

You draft another young QB, keep Smith to mentor him, we need someone to move the ball, our O will be fine next year. We have contracts of key players coming up and the last you want to do is to throw unnecessary cash. Fitzmagic is hot and cold, no thanks. The others are cost prohibitive.

That is fine. See you in 2022. Maybe. If the guy pans out. Because Smith and Allen and DH are not winning us a super bowl next year. They are not bringing us close to one.
I have no problem with drafting a quarterback but we need a more productive stop gap to mentor him because we can win big with one while the youngster learns. The rest of this team is good enough to win big now. The Quarterback position is literally holding us back.
I think taking the money into account and taking your time is fine ... unless our draftee turns into DH again. I believe there is a way to get someone better than Smith for next year that gives us a chance to win without breaking the bank and mortgaging our future all while grooming someone for the future.

[SFREDSKIN]

Originally Posted by punch it in

That is fine. See you in 2022. Maybe. If the guy pans out. Because Smith and Allen and DH are not winning us a super bowl next year. They are not bringing us close to one.
I have no problem with drafting a quarterback but we need a more productive stop gap to mentor him because we can win big with one while the youngster learns. The rest of this team is good enough to win big now. The Quarterback position is literally holding us back.
I think taking the money into account and taking your time is fine ... unless our draftee turns into DH again. I believe there is a way to get someone better than Smith for next year that gives us a chance to win without breaking the bank and mortgaging our future all while grooming someone for the future.

How did Joe Gibbs win? Were any of his QB's stars besides Theismann? Next year barring injury we are going to be stacked on both sides, we have some really good players on IR even though unproven, my gut tells me Charles, AGG, Love and maybe even Ruben Foster will pan out. We need someone to manage the ball not a superstar.

I'm intrigued with Steven Montez, maybe with some coaching and mentoring he could rise above Allen and Haskins. I hope he goes to camp next year.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

How did Joe Gibbs win? Were any of his QB's stars besides Theismann? Next year barring injury we are going to be stacked on both sides, we have some really good players on IR even though unproven, my gut tells me Charles, AGG, Love and maybe even Ruben Foster will pan out. We need someone to manage the ball not a superstar.



I'm intrigued with Steven Montez, maybe with some coaching and mentoring he could rise above Allen and Haskins. I hope he goes to camp next year.

Who said anything about a star quarterback? I said someone better than Smith. Someone who can throw it 10-15 yards consistently certainly does not constitute a star.

Doug Williams, Mark Rypien, even Schroeder - those guys when they played for us were all waaaaaaaay more capable than Alex is now. It is not even close.

Not to mention Gibbs also had a hof rb and o line and one of the best wr trios in history. A phenomenon tight end. A Kicker who never missed.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

How did Joe Gibbs win? Were any of his QB's stars besides Theismann? Next year barring injury we are going to be stacked on both sides, we have some really good players on IR even though unproven, my gut tells me Charles, AGG, Love and maybe even Ruben Foster will pan out. We need someone to manage the ball not a superstar.

I'm intrigued with Steven Montez, maybe with some coaching and mentoring he could rise above Allen and Haskins. I hope he goes to camp next year.

As much as I love Joe Gibbs for being the best coach we've ever had, I don't believe the argument that a team can win today in the style that Gibbs won in the 80's is relevant. First of all, Gibbs is a unicorn, in that there is no other coach in history that won 3 SB's with 3 different qb's.

Second of all, the rules of today are more favorable towards teams with elite qb's who put up big numbers.

For reference, let's look at the Super Bowl winners dating back to 2000:

Mahomes, Brady, Foles/Wentz, Brady, P. Manning, Brady, R. Wilson, Flacco, E. Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, P. Manning, Roethlisberger, Brady, Brady, Gannon, Brady, Dilfer.

Now, let's exclude the GOAT because if the model you're trying to build is duplicating the success of the greatest QB/HC the league has ever seen you're gonna have a bad time. What do we have left?

Mahomes x1 (elite)
Foles/Wentz x1 (obviously a one-off at this point)
P. Manning x2 (elite)
Russ Wilson x1 (another elite HOF-tracking qb, noticing a trend here?)
Flacco x1 (along with Eli, the modern day example of combining above-average with clutch performance and a great D to win a title)
Eli Manning x2 (the formula is above average statistical -aka not elite- + clutch + great d = Super Bowl contender/winner)
Rodgers x1 (elite)
Brees x1 (elite)
Roethlisberger x2 (borderline elite + great d)
Gannon x1 (above average + great d)
Dilfer x1 (game manager + HOF worthy D)

Let's break it down another way:

Elite - Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger = 8 titles (14 if you count Brady, which you should absolutely should because Brady has been elite every year until this year). So that's 14/20 titles.

Game manager to above average statistical combined with a clutch performance here and there and a great defense - 6 titles (Eli Manning x2, Foles/Wentz, Flacco, Gannon, Dilfer)

In conclusion, yeah you can win a title in today's NFL when you combine a great defense with an above-average qb capable of clutch performances, but the odds are lower than finding a stud qb and surrounding him with a quality team (that is still gonna need some clutch performances on top of that). It's incredibly hard to win a title in today's NFL, just ask above-average elite qb's like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott - all guys who were considered above average/had statistical success at some stage in their careers but have never hoisted a Lombardi).

But the odds are higher if you build a solid team in all 3 aspects and also have a great qb capable of pulling off clutch performances on the NFL's biggest stage. Me personally, our defense (while good) has not achieved elite status -yet- and even if it did I'm not sold that Alex Smith is the guy that you can combine with a great defense to win a title. Alex Smith's biggest strength is not making mistakes/turnovers. He's not a playmaker. He's not gonna razzle/dazzle you on occasion. If the defense has a good day and the running game is functioning, that's good enough to win more often than not. But is he going to bail you out when those other units are having bad days? No. Can he serve as a capable bridge qb until the next long term quy is ready to play? Yes. But that's his ceiling as far as I'm concerned.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by mooby

As much as I love Joe Gibbs for being the best coach we've ever had, I don't believe the argument that a team can win today in the style that Gibbs won in the 80's is relevant. First of all, Gibbs is a unicorn, in that there is no other coach in history that won 3 SB's with 3 different qb's.

Second of all, the rules of today are more favorable towards teams with elite qb's who put up big numbers.

For reference, let's look at the Super Bowl winners dating back to 2000:

Mahomes, Brady, Foles/Wentz, Brady, P. Manning, Brady, R. Wilson, Flacco, E. Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, P. Manning, Roethlisberger, Brady, Brady, Gannon, Brady, Dilfer.

Now, let's exclude the GOAT because if the model you're trying to build is duplicating the success of the greatest QB/HC the league has ever seen you're gonna have a bad time. What do we have left?

Mahomes x1 (elite)
Foles/Wentz x1 (obviously a one-off at this point)
P. Manning x2 (elite)
Russ Wilson x1 (another elite HOF-tracking qb, noticing a trend here?)
Flacco x1 (along with Eli, the modern day example of combining above-average with clutch performance and a great D to win a title)
Eli Manning x2 (the formula is above average statistical -aka not elite- + clutch + great d = Super Bowl contender/winner)
Rodgers x1 (elite)
Brees x1 (elite)
Roethlisberger x2 (borderline elite + great d)
Gannon x1 (above average + great d)
Dilfer x1 (game manager + HOF worthy D)

Let's break it down another way:

Elite - Mahomes, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger = 8 titles (14 if you count Brady, which you should absolutely should because Brady has been elite every year until this year). So that's 14/20 titles.

Game manager to above average statistical combined with a clutch performance here and there and a great defense - 6 titles (Eli Manning x2, Foles/Wentz, Flacco, Gannon, Dilfer)

In conclusion, yeah you can win a title in today's NFL when you combine a great defense with an above-average qb capable of clutch performances, but the odds are lower than finding a stud qb and surrounding him with a quality team (that is still gonna need some clutch performances on top of that). It's incredibly hard to win a title in today's NFL, just ask above-average elite qb's like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott - all guys who were considered above average/had statistical success at some stage in their careers but have never hoisted a Lombardi).

But the odds are higher if you build a solid team in all 3 aspects and also have a great qb capable of pulling off clutch performances on the NFL's biggest stage. Me personally, our defense (while good) has not achieved elite status -yet- and even if it did I'm not sold that Alex Smith is the guy that you can combine with a great defense to win a title. Alex Smith's biggest strength is not making mistakes/turnovers. He's not a playmaker. He's not gonna razzle/dazzle you on occasion. If the defense has a good day and the running game is functioning, that's good enough to win more often than not. But is he going to bail you out when those other units are having bad days? No. Can he serve as a capable bridge qb until the next long term quy is ready to play? Yes. But that's his ceiling as far as I'm concerned.

Between 2000 and 2019 there were 56 qb's drafted in the first round. Here is a good article ranking them: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...k1gnhl9iqrp2pg

Of the 7 you listed as elite: 4 were 1st rounders, 3 were outside of the first round, and adding in that Rodgers was selected at pick 24, where we almost certainly will be picking before, that means half the qb's you list elite available would theoretically be available when we pick, and also 53 selections that the teams got wrong.

My point is that what is important is that you pick the right qb, and that comes down to Front Office - GM, Scouting and Coach. Now, with the WFT you have the added question of whether the owner will nose around in the selection, and that is where success this year gives RR the extra credibility to keep Dan Snyder at bay.

As for Alex, he is one of those 53 1st rounders, and he certainly is above game manager level. He has that knack to lead winning teams.

[rocnrik]

This team has everything in place except QB to make a run at a super bowl ...good coaching a very good D ( need very little there) .. add a WR opposite of terry ..it’s all there EXCEPT QB ...what do we do ??? One player away .. how far could we go with Brady back there ?? You guys don’t think there is a vet QB out there that we could bring in and spend our draft on WR, OL , LB , DB ... and go win ..

[SFREDSKIN]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

This team has everything in place except QB to make a run at a super bowl ...good coaching a very good D ( need very little there) .. add a WR opposite of terry ..it’s all there EXCEPT QB ...what do we do ??? One player away .. how far could we go with Brady back there ?? You guys don’t think there is a vet QB out there that we could bring in and spend our draft on WR, OL , LB , DB ... and go win ..

Why is everyone saying add another WR? We have AGG and Harmon, they both will pan out. I hope they activate AGG this week and use him, I know he can produce.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by SFREDSKIN

Why is everyone saying add another WR? We have AGG and Harmon, they both will pan out. I hope they activate AGG this week and use him, I know he can produce.

Because Harmon's on injured reserve and AGG has 1 catch for 3 yards on the year.

Could they turn out good someday? Sure. Do we want to wait for them to get enough playing time to develop into a quality wideout when we could find a veteran to step in as the #2 this offseason? Ehhh.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

This team has everything in place except QB to make a run at a super bowl ...good coaching a very good D ( need very little there) .. add a WR opposite of terry ..it’s all there EXCEPT QB ...what do we do ??? One player away .. how far could we go with Brady back there ?? You guys don’t think there is a vet QB out there that we could bring in and spend our draft on WR, OL , LB , DB ... and go win ..

I agree, the window will be open for the next 4-5 years.. This team needs to find a QB asap

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

This team has everything in place except QB to make a run at a super bowl ...good coaching a very good D ( need very little there) .. add a WR opposite of terry ..it’s all there EXCEPT QB ...what do we do ??? One player away .. how far could we go with Brady back there ?? You guys don’t think there is a vet QB out there that we could bring in and spend our draft on WR, OL , LB , DB ... and go win ..

I think I'll wait until after Sunday to decide whether or not this is a Super Bowl caliber defense. They have shown that they can definitely make plays, and at times carry the team, but let's not forget about the competition that they have balled out against.

The Seattle game will show us what this D is made of.

[SFREDSKIN]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

I think I'll wait until after Sunday to decide whether or not this is a Super Bowl caliber defense. They have shown that they can definitely make plays, and at times carry the team, but let's not forget about the competition that they have balled out against.

The Seattle game will show us what this D is made of.

Seattle's OL is not even close to Pitt or SF OL's, the key is to contain Wilson, he's most dangerous when he's on the run. We'll see if he can get away from the spy and D, I have a feeling he's going to be running like Lamar Jackson and try to wear out our D if he's not killed by Sweat and Young.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by rocnrik

This team has everything in place except QB to make a run at a super bowl ...good coaching a very good D ( need very little there) .. add a WR opposite of terry ..it’s all there EXCEPT QB ...what do we do ??? One player away .. how far could we go with Brady back there ?? You guys don’t think there is a vet QB out there that we could bring in and spend our draft on WR, OL , LB , DB ... and go win ..

Completely my point as opposed to a project quarterback that could take 3-4 years to fully come of age. Has to be a vet that can win now and for 3-4 years out there. Once we winning then go get a quarterback in the draft. Then you got your master mentor situation. Alex just isn’t good enough anymore. Obviously hitting a gem in the later rounds now would be awesome.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Completely my point as opposed to a project quarterback that could take 3-4 years to fully come of age. Has to be a vet that can win now and for 3-4 years out there. Once we winning then go get a quarterback in the draft. Then you got your master mentor situation. Alex just isn’t good enough anymore. Obviously hitting a gem in the later rounds now would be awesome.

I'm no cap expert, but that just seems crazy given what Alex is still due. It would have to be a cheap Vet, and if it's a cheap Vet, is he really an upgrade? If it's not a cheap Vet then you are jeopardizing the opportunity to upgrade the positions around him in free agency, and you just take your chances in the draft. There are some decisions to be made ($$ to be spent) on the Oline and elsewhere.

Scherff and Roullier are both UFA this offseason, as well as Sundberg, Hopkins, KPL, Darby, Cam Sims, Reaves, Moreau, all the TEs except for Thomas. I wouldn't mind an upgrade at tackle since we don't know what we have in Charles. WR needs to be upgraded, and TE. This defense is good, but the back seven could use some upgrades/extensions... I just don't see how you tie up a bunch of additional $ in the QB position, and still improve the rest of the team, or even maintain what you have.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Completely my point as opposed to a project quarterback that could take 3-4 years to fully come of age. Has to be a vet that can win now and for 3-4 years out there. Once we winning then go get a quarterback in the draft. Then you got your master mentor situation. Alex just isn’t good enough anymore. Obviously hitting a gem in the later rounds now would be awesome.

Trade for Stafford and sign Robinson or Golladay? That puts us is the SB contention category immediately. Will cost money. But sometimes you gotta go for it. Especially us who have been dregs for so long.

[mooby]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Between 2000 and 2019 there were 56 qb's drafted in the first round. Here is a good article ranking them: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...k1gnhl9iqrp2pg

Of the 7 you listed as elite: 4 were 1st rounders, 3 were outside of the first round, and adding in that Rodgers was selected at pick 24, where we almost certainly will be picking before, that means half the qb's you list elite available would theoretically be available when we pick, and also 53 selections that the teams got wrong.

My point is that what is important is that you pick the right qb, and that comes down to Front Office - GM, Scouting and Coach. Now, with the WFT you have the added question of whether the owner will nose around in the selection, and that is where success this year gives RR the extra credibility to keep Dan Snyder at bay.

As for Alex, he is one of those 53 1st rounders, and he certainly is above game manager level. He has that knack to lead winning teams.

I wholeheartedly agree, who you draft at qb is way more important than where you draft, and you can't just go picking a qb if you're gonna ignore all the red flags in hopes that you can be the team that straightens them out.

But Alex Smith this year (as much as I love him and his inspiring comeback story) is barely even game manager level. Maybe he's still knocking the rust off? I give him the benefit of the doubt. But let's look at the numbers of his compadres around the league.

I made this table (thanks AnonEmouse) to compare the stats of the league leaders at the position, here's your top 12:

A couple things: I didn't include fumbles because ESPN and NFL.com and Pro Football Reference all make tracking fumbles difficult thanks to how they sort it. Other than the exceptions noted most elite qb's only have 1-2 fumbles (not sure how many lost since ESPN doesn't specify except in cases of rushing fumbles). So their TD/TO ratio is mostly based off passing td's/int's, except in cases where rushing is a feature of their style.

For draft position I put a star on Tannehill because he had to escape the Dolphins to revitalize his career and ascend to the next level. Kirk could have a star too as he had to sit for 3 seasons and study/wait before he got PT, then it took half a season of playing terribly and going down 24-3 at the half to the Bucs before he finally said fuck it and decided to play like he had nothing to lose. But for most of these qb's they are still with the team that drafted them and playing well.

Now we scroll down to Alex. I love Alex's redemption story and would be happy rolling with him next year while we find someone to groom, but I also believe planning around a 37 year old qb coming off a gruesome leg injury that is apparently having some sort of issue would be a terrible career move for Ron.



My key takeaways from this: You don't have to draft a qb at the top of the 1st to find a stud. You do need a qb with a minimum of 2/1 TD/TO ratio just to compete. If you draft a guy in the later rounds, the odds are that he's going to need more time to sit and develop are higher. Turning someone else's trash into treasure (R. Tannehill) is not impossible, but it is improbable.

And finally, there are guys that aren't even mentioned here still having above-average seasons, but they aren't making any noise for whatever reason.

Kyler Murray 23/10 td/int (plus 10 rushing td's)
Matt Stafford 22/9
Phillip Rivers 20/9
Drew Brees 18/3 (small sample size obv)
Lamar Jackson 18/7 (plus 6 rushing td's)

I think we might be a bit jaded because last time we traded up for a qb in the draft, it set this franchise back about 4 years. But let's say we finish with a draft pick between 16-32, would you trade 2022's first to move up a few spots to draft a guy you like (assuming he's available on draft day?)

Right now we have a quality defense (could use some help at LB/maybe a corner/safety if they want better play from Everett). Assuming we get another quality target at WR/TE next year we might be looking at a 2-3 year window (while we still have key guys on rookie contracts) where we can try to contend. Do we really want to waste next season letting more young guys develop? No. Alex Smith might expect to roll into the offseason as the starter for next year, but that doesn't mean we should be complacent with who we have on the roster at qb. We gotta start looking for the next guy, if Ron & co. aren't already.