WFT Quarterback Thread - Post SEASON 2021

[Scalper]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Houston doesnt have recourse to sue. The CBA specifies the fines and salary loss. You aren't bankrupting Watson any more than we bankrupted TW. If Houston doesn't trade him he will pretty assuredly sit out this year, or come back in week 11 to ensure the contract year doesnt toll but find a reaaon to not suit up.

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Watson will be bankrupted, without suing, by simply not collecting a salary. You are correct the fines come out of salary not paid. The team can sue for bonus money, but there are limitations. Basically, Watson comes back Week 11, team can sue him for prorated 10 weeks of bonus. Some variation depending on bye week?, suspect it is just treated like a standard pay week. Most teams don't do that because alienates player permanently, but they can. That's around $3.5M, and Watson basically then gets hosed for twice that amount because he paid taxes and agent fees already. They can also take fines out of his checks from week 11 onward, which are I believe more dispersed under new CBA, checks throughout like 8 months of year keep players with budgeting skills of 7 year olds from going broke, not just weekly game checks. He's due $10.5M in 2021, but gets 38% of that only, because of games missed. About $4M. Some variation with preseason games how they count etc., could make that higher, but most estimates say Watson holds out of everything, fines are $3M to $4M. That means he earns $1M maximum, after fines, and it could be nothing or he could even end up owing team money. His effective earnings 2021 are thus NOTHING if he holds out. And this isn't some guy that lives frugally on the few million he hasn't spent. Even if he makes $1M in 2021, pays half in taxes, 3% agent fee or whatever, etc.

I do not know how holdout has changed under new CBA, when player can come back and still get entire season. They tightened some previsions on holdouts, but I don't know.

TW collected fat checks almost a decade. Situation not analogous. TW easily worth $50M+ liquid when he held out.

I agree he will sit out this year probably, and my point is Houston ownership is fine with that and has him by the balls. They will eat the money and cornhole him because the money matters MUCH less to them than him. And by the time year 2 rolls around, of the holdout, Watson will be rolling up on broke, in NFL player terms. His market value not playing football is under $100K, optimistically. Houston owners rake in the cash from TV deal even if Watson doesn't play and tickets don't sell. I also think owners in general STRONGLY support Houston owners, simply because they aren't going to let players take huge new deals with tons of guaranteed money and then hold them hostage and hijack their golden goose. There is always another player, even at QB, and a huge line of players have learned that the hard way. Love it or hate it, owners wield almost all power in NFL.

2022 is the first year Watson earns real money, $35M, but if he holds out, that drops. to $13.3M, minus $4M fines, $9.3M, half for taxes agent fees, $4.7M left. Not chump change, but not a pile either, especially because he is now on hook for 2 years of bonus money, which team will certainly go after by 2022, which is 6.7M or something for two years prorated. Probably involves player's union, but team can still sue. And he has to get to 2022. By that time, end of 2022 season, he's rolling up on 28 by start of next season, and has squandered his prime. I don't think it'll get to that. But Houston can just sit on it and hose him. They can sign another QB free agent, draft one, whatever, and earn the TV revenue.

Watson is a HOLE, and dumb, for not thinking it through before signing new deal. I fully expect Houston to maintain its zero-tolerance no trade policy for years. By 2022 Watson will cave, for sure, and the team can easily eat the $13.3M just out of spite as dead cap money.

Watson isn't going ANYWHERE, except to bankruptcy court if he doesn't play by 2022, and by that time I think he will certainly cave simply because his years of high earning are limited, whereas Houston ownership earns forever no matter what players they have or don't have. I hope he does hold out and go broke, that would serve him right for being such a HOLE, taking pirate ships full of loot for signing bonus and than reneging on his contractual obligations.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by Scalper

Watson will be bankrupted, without suing, by simply not collecting a salary. You are correct the fines come out of salary not paid. The team can sue for bonus money, but there are limitations. Basically, Watson comes back Week 11, team can sue him for prorated 10 weeks of bonus. Some variation depending on bye week?, suspect it is just treated like a standard pay week. Most teams don't do that because alienates player permanently, but they can. That's around $3.5M, and Watson basically then gets hosed for twice that amount because he paid taxes and agent fees already. They can also take fines out of his checks from week 11 onward, which are I believe more dispersed under new CBA, checks throughout like 8 months of year keep players with budgeting skills of 7 year olds from going broke, not just weekly game checks. He's due $10.5M in 2021, but gets 38% of that only, because of games missed. About $4M. Some variation with preseason games how they count etc., could make that higher, but most estimates say Watson holds out of everything, fines are $3M to $4M. That means he earns $1M maximum, after fines, and it could be nothing or he could even end up owing team money. His effective earnings 2021 are thus NOTHING if he holds out. And this isn't some guy that lives frugally on the few million he hasn't spent. Even if he makes $1M in 2021, pays half in taxes, 3% agent fee or whatever, etc.



I do not know how holdout has changed under new CBA, when player can come back and still get entire season. They tightened some previsions on holdouts, but I don't know.



TW collected fat checks almost a decade. Situation not analogous. TW easily worth $50M+ liquid when he held out.



I agree he will sit out this year probably, and my point is Houston ownership is fine with that and has him by the balls. They will eat the money and cornhole him because the money matters MUCH less to them than him. And by the time year 2 rolls around, of the holdout, Watson will be rolling up on broke, in NFL player terms. His market value not playing football is under $100K, optimistically. Houston owners rake in the cash from TV deal even if Watson doesn't play and tickets don't sell. I also think owners in general STRONGLY support Houston owners, simply because they aren't going to let players take huge new deals with tons of guaranteed money and then hold them hostage and hijack their golden goose. There is always another player, even at QB, and a huge line of players have learned that the hard way. Love it or hate it, owners wield almost all power in NFL.



2022 is the first year Watson earns real money, $35M, but if he holds out, that drops. to $13.3M, minus $4M fines, $9.3M, half for taxes agent fees, $4.7M left. Not chump change, but not a pile either, especially because he is now on hook for 2 years of bonus money, which team will certainly go after by 2022, which is 6.7M or something for two years prorated. Probably involves player's union, but team can still sue. And he has to get to 2022. By that time, end of 2022 season, he's rolling up on 28 by start of next season, and has squandered his prime. I don't think it'll get to that. But Houston can just sit on it and hose him. They can sign another QB free agent, draft one, whatever, and earn the TV revenue.



Watson is a HOLE, and dumb, for not thinking it through before signing new deal. I fully expect Houston to maintain its zero-tolerance no trade policy for years. By 2022 Watson will cave, for sure, and the team can easily eat the $13.3M just out of spite as dead cap money.



Watson isn't going ANYWHERE, except to bankruptcy court if he doesn't play by 2022, and by that time I think he will certainly cave simply because his years of high earning are limited, whereas Houston ownership earns forever no matter what players they have or don't have. I hope he does hold out and go broke, that would serve him right for being such a HOLE, taking pirate ships full of loot for signing bonus and than reneging on his contractual obligations.

Watson has earned 40Million Cash so far. The Texans aren't bankrupting him.


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[Scalper]

Originally Posted by CRedskinsRule

Watson has earned 40Million Cash so far. The Texans aren't bankrupting him.


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I'm not going to regurgitate my previous posts.
He has less than $20M after taxes agent fees and has easily blown at least $10M. I'd bet he has less than $5M in bank or short-term liquid assets by conventional balance sheet reckon. His $30M last year included $27M signing bonus prorated at $7.xM last year, $5.4M next four years. It is not salary he collected free and clear without obligation, like normal salary, it is a bonus against future performance, which is again why him holding out is so atrocious. He sits out games holding out, team can go after him for bonus, plus fine him just under $4M a year. So if he holds out and team goes after bonus, yes he will be bankrupt very quick, as I explained previous post, especially because he can't get the taxes he paid or agent fees he paid back. Wilson shows up week 11 next year, team can go after him for $3.375M of bonus, and he only gets about $4M in salary for 30% of season, which fines approach or exceed. So next year he would earn nothing or less than $1M in salary, and owe team $3.4M in bonus. Your post looks at raw income without the qualitative factor of what form of income it was. 68% of what Watson has earned is signing bonus, and he is on hook for huge percentage of that if he holds out.

But even if he doesn't go bankrupt, he has 5-8 years of top earning potential, the owners earn forever owning the team. Every year Watson holds out he is the big loser because his window of his prime is finite and closing. Houston will let him wither on the vine holding out, just on principle. Serves the turd right for signing a huge deal and then having no loyalty. McDonald's is always hiring. :-)

[mooby]

Originally Posted by Scalper

I'm not going to regurgitate my previous posts.
He has less than $20M after taxes agent fees and has easily blown at least $10M. I'd bet he has less than $5M in bank or short-term liquid assets by conventional balance sheet reckon. His $30M last year included $27M signing bonus prorated at $7.xM last year, $5.4M next four years. It is not salary he collected free and clear without obligation, like normal salary, it is a bonus against future performance, which is again why him holding out is so atrocious. He sits out games holding out, team can go after him for bonus, plus fine him just under $4M a year. So if he holds out and team goes after bonus, yes he will be bankrupt very quick, as I explained previous post, especially because he can't get the taxes he paid or agent fees he paid back. Wilson shows up week 11 next year, team can go after him for $3.375M of bonus, and he only gets about $4M in salary for 30% of season, which fines approach or exceed. So next year he would earn nothing or less than $1M in salary, and owe team $3.4M in bonus. Your post looks at raw income without the qualitative factor of what form of income it was. 68% of what Watson has earned is signing bonus, and he is on hook for huge percentage of that if he holds out.

But even if he doesn't go bankrupt, he has 5-8 years of top earning potential, the owners earn forever owning the team. Every year Watson holds out he is the big loser because his window of his prime is finite and closing. Houston will let him wither on the vine holding out, just on principle. Serves the turd right for signing a huge deal and then having no loyalty. McDonald's is always hiring. :-)

Thank you.

I'd also like to add I kinda see Scalper's point here.

In a rational world with a rational owner, Cal McNair and Jack Easterby would realize they have an unhappy asset worth beaucoup assets, and they would open the trade market for him.

But McNair and Easterby seem to operate on Snyder/Allen lines. Are they petty enough to not even entertain offers? Yes. Will Watson sit out a year? Yes. In our situation with Trent, Snyder and co. blinked first. I think McNair and Easterby will too eventually, even if it's not this year.

[CRedskinsRule]

Originally Posted by mooby

Thank you.

I'd also like to add I kinda see Scalper's point here.

In a rational world with a rational owner, Cal McNair and Jack Easterby would realize they have an unhappy asset worth beaucoup assets, and they would open the trade market for him.

But McNair and Easterby seem to operate on Snyder/Allen lines. Are they petty enough to not even entertain offers? Yes. Will Watson sit out a year? Yes. In our situation with Trent, Snyder and co. blinked first. I think McNair and Easterby will too eventually, even if it's not this year.

I get Scalper's point, the owners have far more leverage. And it's true to a point. But, megastar players have shown that they can and will force their way off of a team. And the fact is, some team will be ready to sign Watson as soon as the door is cracked open. Watson knows it, and if that means he has to live off of a measly 3 million dollars this year, or the next two years even, he has said he is going to do that. In the meantime Houston loses out this year and loses trade value in the meantime.

Bottomline, yes bad ownership can fight the battle, and win a pyrrhic victory but the megastar players are learning that they can manipulate the market to get where they want to go to, even if it means a small setback up front.

[Chief X_Phackter]

I get Scalper's point, but I still don't think he's in any danger of going broke. The team may go after his bonus, fine him, etc. However, he also has a dozen or more endorsements including Nike, Snickers, Rolex, and Beats by Dre...

He'll be fine financially, and I still think the organization will ultimately give in as long as there is a willing trade partner.