Ukraine mega thread

[nonniey]

Unfortunately the Ukraine is in a worse tactical/strategic position than they were in 2014 the last time the Russians made a major move against them (I'm not counting the Donbass situation at that level). Their fleet for all intents was wiped out in 2014 as most of their units were interned in Crimea. If the Russians want to take the whole shebang I think they could.

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Unfortunately the Ukraine is in a worse tactical/strategic position than they were in 2014 the last time the Russians made a major move against them (I'm not counting the Donbass situation at that level). Their fleet for all intents was wiped out in 2014 as most of their units were interned in Crimea. If the Russians want to take the whole shebang I think they could.

The situation is interesting. Im not going to pretend to know the nuances of the past 30 years of Ukraine-Russia divorce but it seems Putin can take this as far as he wants. Parts of eastern Ukraine he could probably take in a week with his green men. Id guess he has enough clandestine forces there now to do a Crimea. Eastern Ukraine is mostly pro Russia it seems.

I just cant imagine western Ukraine or Kyiv going quietly. They are pro west and theres no way Russia will be able to get away with all the civilian deaths in Ukraine like they did in Syria. Cyber attacks or not, video will get out of crimes against humanity.

Id guess Putin takes parts of eastern Ukraine, solidifies lines and then tries to turn down the temperature. He would have achieved his goal of pouring cold water on the hopes of the people of Ukraine or Georgia ever becoming a NATO member. Perhaps they stop electing pro Nato presidents bc these campaign promises of "we will join NATO" are starting to ring hollow. Thye mght be forced to accept a more pro russian stance allowing Russia to offer them the carrot and not the stick.

Going into western Ukraine or Kyiv ... the snake might choke itself.


https://www.vox.com/22917719/russia-...nato-explained

^^^ a good basic info, how-did-we-get-here article.

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

The situation is interesting. Im not going to pretend to know the nuances of the past 30 years of Ukraine-Russia divorce but it seems Putin can take this as far as he wants. Parts of eastern Ukraine he could probably take in a week with his green men. Id guess he has enough clandestine forces there now to do a Crimea. Eastern Ukraine is mostly pro Russia it seems.

I just cant imagine western Ukraine or Kyiv going quietly. They are pro west and theres no way Russia will be able to get away with all the civilian deaths in Ukraine like they did in Syria. Cyber attacks or not, video will get out of crimes against humanity.

Id guess Putin takes parts of eastern Ukraine, solidifies lines and then tries to turn down the temperature. He would have achieved his goal of pouring cold water on the hopes of the people of Ukraine or Georgia ever becoming a NATO member. Perhaps they stop electing pro Nato presidents bc these campaign promises of "we will join NATO" are starting to ring hollow. Thye mght be forced to accept a more pro russian stance allowing Russia to offer them the carrot and not the stick.

Going into western Ukraine or Kyiv ... the snake might choke itself.


https://www.vox.com/22917719/russia-...nato-explained

^^^ a good basic info, how-did-we-get-here article.

This is a dangerous game of chicken being played.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Unfortunately the Ukraine is in a worse tactical/strategic position than they were in 2014 the last time the Russians made a major move against them (I'm not counting the Donbass situation at that level). Their fleet for all intents was wiped out in 2014 as most of their units were interned in Crimea. If the Russians want to take the whole shebang I think they could.

Am I interpreting this correctly you dislike Ukraine, or am I reading into it?

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

Am I interpreting this correctly you dislike Ukraine, or am I reading into it?

Don't know how you came to that conclusion- Did you miss the very first word of my post?

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Don't know how you came to that conclusion- Did you miss the very first word of my post?

It was the use of the word "the" in front of the name. It is considered derogatory towards Ukraine because the name means borderland. When "the" is put in front it implies they do not have government autonomy so I wasn't sure if that was intentional on your part to call them a Russian borderland.

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

It was the use of the word "the" in front of the name. It is considered derogatory towards Ukraine because the name means borderland. When "the" is put in front it implies they do not have government autonomy so I wasn't sure if that was intentional on your part to call them a Russian borderland.

Well wasn't tracking that, I guess I always used that language and never changed after Ukraine became independent.