The Sam Howell Thread

[KI Skins Fan]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Yup. Snyder is gone. It is an attractive organization again. It is crazy how people are acting like the world is ending because of this season. We knew going into this season that nothing was changing except for the name plate on the owners desk. If you are not giddy about next year than you are completely underestimating the shit stain that was Dan Snyder.

C'mon, man! Punch, you know that nobody here is underestimating how poor an NFL owner Dan Snyder was. In fact, he was so bad that he's left a residual, if irrational, fear of "What in the world comes next?" in the minds of Washington fans everywhere. We need time to heal.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Originally Posted by punch it in

Yup. Snyder is gone. It is an attractive organization again. It is crazy how people are acting like the world is ending because of this season. We knew going into this season that nothing was changing except for the name plate on the owners desk. If you are not giddy about next year than you are completely underestimating the shit stain that was Dan Snyder.

The organization is trending up with DS gone, but literally every position group outside of DT needs an upgrade. We'll have a lot of cap space and a few more draft picks than normal, but I'm tempering my expectations that there will be some glorious turnaround in one year.

A playoff birth is probably the ceiling for 2024 with (likely) a last place schedule on the horizon - IF Sam continues to progress, the O-line is fixed, the defense is fixed, and we hit on some draft picks.

The fact is, it will be new front office, new scouts, new coaches, new schemes, a bunch of new players... that's a lot to put together and expect much. Can it be done? Sure. I'm just not holding my breath for next year's team to be markedly better than this year's team.

IF they are able to hit on GM, HC, DC/OC, free agency, and the draft - then I think 2025 is where the leap will occur.

[skinsfan69]

Really the culprit the last few years has been Ron more so than Dan. I guess Dan gave him the job as long as Ron played along and gave Haskins a chance. That to me is really what set us back more than anything the last several years.

[Chief X_Phackter]

Definitely not out of the realm of possibilities, just have to hit on several things and get a little lucky along the way.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by Chief X_Phackter

Definitely not out of the realm of possibilities, just have to hit on several things and get a little lucky along the way.

Outside of the top 5ish teams, I think this is true for pretty much everyone. They're all professionals, winning 10 games ain't easy.

[skinsfaninok]

https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1...072014174?s=46


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[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1...072014174?s=46

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Jamf:

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

https://x.com/alexansimon85/status/1...072014174?s=46


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Sam is also playing on a cheap contract. All the talk about new regime wanting their guy is ridiculous.

[skinsfaninok]

Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr

[Ruhskins]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr

But that doesn't mean sh*t when you finish with a record that will garner you a top 5 draft pick.

[GridIron26]

Originally Posted by Ruhskins

But that doesn't mean sh*t when you finish with a record that will garner you a top 5 draft pick.

Bengals got a pick in the top 5 after a year with Burrow. Bengals used the pick to draft Chase... We all already saw the result of this.

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr

He would have his work cut out for him. Through 12 weeks he has played one more game than most QBs because of the byes. Stroud is less than 100 yards behind him with one less game for example.

If he does that would be awesome he has some incredibly challenging defenses coming up that I am looking forward to seeing how he plays. Dallas was the best defense he has faced and a really good one and he looked pretty good till the 4th quarter. It was still a 20-10 game until then.

[mredskins]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

Regardless of what you think about SH / EB , After 12 weeks Sam Howell is still the leagues leading passer.

When is the last time a Washington QB led the league in passing for a whole season? Sam may do that this yr

In yardage, its a bit of a fools gold stat to hang your pride on.

I prefer to use QBR rating which accounts for a number of variables to determine a QB's "worth"

SH's current QBR is twenty first in the league.

We may have something in Sam but I am also saying don't go into next year saying QB1 is a lock. If something better presents its self I definitely bring it in and have it fight it out with SH.

[Chief X_Phackter]

If you lead the league in pass attempts, you should probably be the league's leading passer - or close to it. That stat means nothing to me really, other than he has an OC that doesn't like to run the ball much, despite the fact that our running backs are # 6 in the league in yards per attempt. It's quite puzzling actually, and why I'm not sold on EB as OC or HC.

[mooby]

Just peering into the stats a bit trying to figure out why Terry Mac is in a funk - he's dropping more passes than typical this year and he looks out of sync with Sam.

First thing I see is Terry Mac has 60 catches on 97 targets. He's by far Sam's most targeted receiver (next highest is Dotson with 69 targets) and yet for whatever reason that catch rate is abysmal compared to our other receivers.

Terry - 60/97 (catches/targets)
C. Samuel - 47/63
Dotson - 42/69
Logan T - 45/62
B.Rob - 29/36
A. Gibson - 33/39
Dyami Brown - 11/21

Now obviously Sam loves to spread the ball around - we have 11 different players who have received at least 14 targets. But Terry has 97! targets (still lower than league leading receivers like Tyreek Hill/Ceedee Lamb) and only 60 catches for 694 yards, which is half what Hill has.

Just for comparison - top 5 receivers by stats this year:

Tyreek Hill: 88 rec, 120 targets, 1324 yards, 10 td's
Ceedee Lamb: 90 catches, 121 targets, 1182 yards, 7 td's
Keenan Allen: 97 catches, 129 targets, 1117 yards, 7 td's
A.J. Brown: 73 catches, 105 targets, 1050 yards, 7 td's
DJ Moore: 70 catches, 93 targets, 1003 yards, 6 td's
....
Terry Mac: 60 catches, 97 targets, 694 yards, 2 td's

He's having a down year and I can't tell if it's because he's out of sync with Sam Howell or if he's playing hurt, or if it's Bieniemy's scheme. But something's off. I don't want to say it's because Howell throws inaccurate passes (he does on occasion, but Howell also has a 66% completion rate which is pretty good). But there's definitely room for improvement. Terry's long for the season is 36 yards too which isn't great.

Going into a bit of a deeper dive (thanks to PFR) historically Terry's YPC looks like this: 15.8, 12.9, 13.7, 15.5 - this year it's 11.6 which would be a new low for him. His catch rate for 2023 is 61.9% which apparently is not far off his career average of 62.5%. Compared to the greats though it's not in the same level - Tyreek Hill's career average is 68.7%, Stefon Diggs' career average is 69% (nice), Travis Kelce's career average is 71.6%.

Terry's yards after catch per reception is down as well - historically it was 3.7yac/r, 5.5, 4.1, 5.1, but this year it's 3.4. He also has tied his career high for drops in a season with 5 this year and we still have 5 games left. His percentage of drops this year is also higher than ever - 5.2 this year compared to 4.3, 2.2, 3.8, and 2.5 in 2022.

TL;DR: Statistically he's having a down year as well. Not a huge deal seeing as how this is a wasted year anyways but if we are to be better next year he needs to regain his playmaking form. His yards after catch was always a big part of his game but this year it's almost nonexistant. He's always had good hands but this year he's on rate to drop more passes than ever. And obviously the glaring stats - he hasn't had a dominant game in over a year - every elite WR has at least one every year. We need more from him.