Commanders 2023 Off-Season Thread

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by punch it in

BRob has such potential man. Seriously like u said, imagine an Oline, not being shot in the knee in the off season, and an OC that understands what he had there? Dude could be the rushing leader. He was an absolute beast and that was with the injury, no oline , and Scott fucking Turner. Im super pumped about him going forward.

I want to draft a G, C, and T in the first five rounds.

I like it. I want a CB in the 1st 2 rounds and a linebacker in the 1st 4 rounds. The other 3 for the OL in the 1st 5 rounds would be nice.

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by sdskinsfan2001

I like it. I want a CB in the 1st 2 rounds and a linebacker in the 1st 4 rounds. The other 3 for the OL in the 1st 5 rounds would be nice.

Yup LB, CB, Oline - and ill take the quarterback from fresno - Heaner or Hall from BYU late as a project. But I really want Torrence the G from Florida in the first - we should be able to trade back several spots in the first to get him and pick up an extra pick. Dude is an absolute beast.

[BaltimoreSkins]

https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/2/1/2...eds-in-the-nfl

Interesting analysis of what we can expect if the Commanders draft in area of need in the rounds and the probability based on historical trends of that pick being a year 1 starter. Focused on OT, Interior O-line, LB and CB

Based on position and 16th pick in 1st round the probability (converted to percent) we get a 1st year starter if we draft a:
OT: 57%
IOL: 75%
LB: 60%
CB: 67%

After first round the odds of finding a first year starter drop dramatically at the areas of need. Perhaps at that point best player regardless of depth, trade backs for more potential picks or even use them to fill needs at FA (with Rivera's track record that might not equal to starters either)

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

https://www.hogshaven.com/2023/2/1/2...eds-in-the-nfl

Interesting analysis of what we can expect if the Commanders draft in area of need in the rounds and the probability based on historical trends of that pick being a year 1 starter. Focused on OT, Interior O-line, LB and CB

Based on position and 16th pick in 1st round the probability (converted to percent) we get a 1st year starter if we draft a:
OT: 57%
IOL: 75%
LB: 60%
CB: 67%

After first round the odds of finding a first year starter drop dramatically at the areas of need. Perhaps at that point best player regardless of depth, trade backs for more potential picks or even use them to fill needs at FA (with Rivera's track record that might not equal to starters either)

Not sure if you mean just his FA batting avg or draft as well. But according to us fans, Ron is a draft master.

2020
- drafted rookie DPOY
-drafted a top 5, 15 million per year safety in the 7th round!! woot woot
- drafted a 1k run yards RB in 3rd
- drafted depth DE in 7th

2021
- starting OL in 2nd round
- starting outside corner in 3rd
- one of the best blocking TE in the NFL in the 4th
- Interception safety machine in 5th
- 10 year long snapper in 6th
- not one but two depth DEs in the 7th

2022
- WR1 stud in first round
- Mathis is a ?? mark
- Beast of a running back in 3rd
- Second coming of Tom fucking Brady in the 5th round

I dont think we can bash Ron et al .. while praising all these draft "hits"

If youre a Howellian .. Ron is your Moses

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by SunnySide

Not sure if you mean just his FA batting avg or draft as well. But according to us fans, Ron is a draft master.

2020
- drafted rookie DPOY
-drafted a top 5, 15 million per year safety in the 7th round!! woot woot
- drafted a 1k run yards RB in 3rd
- drafted depth DE in 7th

2021
- starting OL in 2nd round
- starting outside corner in 3rd
- one of the best blocking TE in the NFL in the 4th
- Interception safety machine in 5th
- 10 year long snapper in 6th
- not one but two depth DEs in the 7th

2022
- WR1 stud in first round
- Mathis is a ?? mark
- Beast of a running back in 3rd
- Second coming of Tom fucking Brady in the 5th round

I dont think we can bash Ron et al .. while praising all these draft "hits"

If youre a Howellian .. Ron is your Moses

I wouldn’t call depth homeruns. I wouldn’t even call starters homeruns because they might just be starting by default. If FA was better maybe they aren’t starting. And how do we know a guy is a ten year starter in year 3? Lol. That list is a little fugazi.

[BaltimoreSkins]

yeah I was referring to FA hit. If we are looking at need and probability of a second rounder being a year 1 starter is less than 50% at our areas I would think a known commodity FA that is already a starter in the league should be greater than 50% hit rate at starting for us the following season and I would prefer to use the second as a BPA.

[SunnySide]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

yeah I was referring to FA hit. If we are looking at need and probability of a second rounder being a year 1 starter is less than 50% at our areas I would think a known commodity FA that is already a starter in the league should be greater than 50% hit rate at starting for us the following season and I would prefer to use the second as a BPA.

I read that Hog haven article yesterday .. I appreciate the work they put in to come up with their own formula

FA has been a mixed bag. I think Scweitzer/Leno/Lucas/Mccain/Thomas/Samuel have been good returns on investment ... those QB and WJ3 miss hurts
----

Idk .. I think things would have been different if we just found a functional QB. Now we need a functional QB and some OL replacements

[KI Skins Fan]

We fans are in limbo until Snyder sells the team. It doesn't matter to me what happens before then.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by KI Skins Fan

We fans are in limbo until Snyder sells the team. It doesn't matter to me what happens before then.

Agree, nothing else matters

[NC_Skins]

https://richmond.com/sports/professi...135422658.html

Makes sense. Why would you pick up the 5th year option on a guy who can't stay healthy? No offense, the pick is looking like a disaster at this point. His best year out of 3 is 7.5 sacks. That's stats not worthy for a #2 pick in the draft. Hell, Detroit's Hutchinson got 9.5 and 3 INTs his rookie year.

[skinsfaninok]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

https://richmond.com/sports/professi...135422658.html

Makes sense. Why would you pick up the 5th year option on a guy who can't stay healthy? No offense, the pick is looking like a disaster at this point. His best year out of 3 is 7.5 sacks. That's stats not worthy for a #2 pick in the draft. Hell, Detroit's Hutchinson got 9.5 and 3 INTs his rookie year.

If CY was playing on the cowboys we’d be calling him a bust let’s just be real here…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[punch it in]

Originally Posted by skinsfaninok

If CY was playing on the cowboys we’d be calling him a bust let’s just be real here…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If he doesn’t ball out next year he is most definitely a bust. Im still giving him a pass because of the injury. 12 games since his rookie campaign have been lackluster to say the least, but it’s only 12 games.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

https://richmond.com/sports/professi...135422658.html

Makes sense. Why would you pick up the 5th year option on a guy who can't stay healthy? No offense, the pick is looking like a disaster at this point. His best year out of 3 is 7.5 sacks. That's stats not worthy for a #2 pick in the draft. Hell, Detroit's Hutchinson got 9.5 and 3 INTs his rookie year.

That's a risky game in regards to Payne. If Payne only balled this year because of becoming a FA after the season, then he can get the fuck out.

But if it's just a natural progression of a good football player becoming a great football player that coincided with going into his 5th year, you try to make it work. And he's been good for us even before this great year, so I assume this is the case. But I don't know him personally, so I don't know what is true. I do know that based on this year, he's earned a nice contract. I hope he's improving every year and we keep him. My verdict: Pay that man his money. Him and Allen can Bama Bro it or at least another 2 years.

With Chase, he did have a very good rookie year, then a nothingburger 2nd year results wise before the injury, then basically missed all of year 3. I think you have to pick up the 5th year as a gamble. Unless he's shown something bad off the field we don't know about.

[jamf]

Originally Posted by NC_Skins

https://richmond.com/sports/professi...135422658.html

Makes sense. Why would you pick up the 5th year option on a guy who can't stay healthy? No offense, the pick is looking like a disaster at this point. His best year out of 3 is 7.5 sacks. That's stats not worthy for a #2 pick in the draft. Hell, Detroit's Hutchinson got 9.5 and 3 INTs his rookie year.

Who do you get that is better for $17 mill?
This is the second overall pick. You take all 5 years.

[sdskinsfan2001]

Originally Posted by jamf

Who do you get that is better for $17 mill?
This is the second overall pick. You take all 5 years.

Agree, he shredded his knee in the middle of his 2nd year. Albeit, not a great year. And the injury went on way longer than at least I understood, where he essentially missed his 3rd year. But I think we need to take the bet on Chase to be who we thought we were drafting and who we saw his 1st year.

Also, if we don't extend him, he isn't coming back if he does crush it.