The Most Fresh & Cordial Political Thread Ever

[Giantone]

Originally Posted by nonniey

Energy policy can and does effect the price of gas. Biden's anti domestic petroleum policies were one of the key factors in driving up the cost of gas and inflation as a whole over the past three years.

OPEC is going into a death spiral – because of China
https://news.yahoo.com/opec-going-de...160000924.html


Watch what Saudi Arabia does, not what it says.

Saudi and OPEC officials self-evidently do not believe their own claim that world oil demand will keep growing briskly for another generation as if electric vehicles had never been invented, and there was no such thing as the Paris Accord.

OPEC had to slash output last October in order to shore up prices. It had to cut again in April. The Saudis then stunned traders with a unilateral cut of one million barrels a day (b/d) in June.

All told, the OPEC-Russia cartel has had to take 2m b/d of production off the table at a high point in the economic cycle, after China’s post-Covid reopening and at a time when the US economy has been running hot with a fiscal expansion roughly equal to Roosevelt’s world war budget.

That 2m b/d figure happens to be more or less the amount of crude currently being displaced by EV sales worldwide, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Talk of peak oil demand is “withering under scrutiny”, said Saudi Aramco chief, Amin Nasser.

Consumption will ratchet up from 102m b/d to 110m b/d by 2030, and rise further until 2035 before stabilising at a high plateau through to mid-century.

This skips over the awkward detail that EVs are already on track to reach 60pc of total car sales in the world’s biggest car market within two years (not a misprint).

The cartel is being hit from two sides. Petrol and diesel cars are becoming more efficient, gradually displacing 1.4bn vintage models disappearing into the scrap yard. BP says that alone will cut up to a tenth global oil demand by 2040.

With a lag, EVs are now starting to take a material bite, with an S-curve trajectory likely to go parabolic this decade.

China’s EVs sales hit 38pc this summer, even though subsidies have mostly been scrapped. This is far ahead of schedule under Beijing’s New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan.