All things Middle East related

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by Chico23231

Syria war restart is getting interesting. Another blow to Iran and Russia if troops push close to Damascus and force a regime change. Iran corridor to Lebanon could be cut.

It certainly is in our interests to have that happen, the downside is potentially big - the possibility of an actual genocide (unlike the stupid claims of what Israel is doing in Gaza) against minorities (Shia, Alawites and Christians). We probably need to support our Kurdish and other western supported rebels to seize as much territory as possible to counter this.

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by nonniey

It certainly is in our interests to have that happen, the downside is potentially big - the possibility of an actual genocide (unlike the stupid claims of what Israel is doing in Gaza) against minorities (Shia, Alawites and Christians). We probably need to support our Kurdish and other western supported rebels to seize as much territory as possible to counter this.

Think about just how bad it’s been for Iran since Oct 7 Isreal attack

1. Hamas is in shambles and its leadership has been eliminated. A proxy of Iran
2. Hezbollah entire leadership has been eliminated, infrastructure destroyed, thousands of soldiers killed and mentally have been set back years. Oh they agreed to move back beyond the river. An Iran proxy
3 trump has been elected, an Iran hawk and the appeasement strategy of Biden is gone. They immediately cancelled reprisals attacks versus Israel
4. Syria rebels now look to have Damascus surrounded and Iran reportedly have negotiated their militias safe retreat with the rebels. Iran caught flat footed and in retreat. There direct access to Lebonon is gone.

Iran made major miscalculation. They thought Israel would roll over or let this go? Jokes on them

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by nonniey

It certainly is in our interests to have that happen, the downside is potentially big - the possibility of an actual genocide (unlike the stupid claims of what Israel is doing in Gaza) against minorities (Shia, Alawites and Christians). We probably need to support our Kurdish and other western supported rebels to seize as much territory as possible to counter this.

Still self rationalizing the death of 40,000 Palestinian women and children I see. I know you are too intelligent to actually believe Israel is innocent

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

Still self rationalizing the death of 40,000 Palestinian women and children I see. I know you are too intelligent to actually believe Israel is innocent

No just pointing out 40K Palestinian women and children (I guess the latest narrative is that only women and children have been killed there now?) does not equate to a genocide. Claiming it is really takes away what a genocide is and undermines attempts at pointing out actual genocides (The old cry wolf effect).

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by nonniey

No just pointing out 40K Palestinian women and children (I guess the latest narrative is that only women and children have been killed there now?) does not equate to a genocide. Claiming it is really takes away what a genocide is and undermines attempts at pointing out actual genocides (The old cry wolf effect).

It's not the narrative 70% of all victims have been women and children that is well documented. This also clearly fits the definition of a genocide:

a. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
b. Deliberately inflicting conditions of life that are intended to destroy the group
c. Refusing the movement of medicine and food to a group
d. Intentionally targeting and killing humanitarian aide workers and the buildings that hold those services.

If it is not genocide could we at least agree it is colonialization via murder?

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

It's not the narrative 70% of all victims have been women and children that is well documented. This also clearly fits the definition of a genocide:

a. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
b. Deliberately inflicting conditions of life that are intended to destroy the group
c. Refusing the movement of medicine and food to a group
d. Intentionally targeting and killing humanitarian aide workers and the buildings that hold those services.

If it is not genocide could we at least agree it is colonialization via murder?

And again, it goes back to deliberate tactics of HAMAs to maximize casualties within the Palestinian population. HAMAS intent was to prevent targeting of their assets by surrounding those assets with civilians. Israel made the decision not to acquiesce to those tactics which resulted in the large number of civilian casualties. As it wasn't the civilians who were the targets a, b and d above don't apply, and the claim of c. is a bit dubious as movement of medicine and food to Palestinians has occurred (with that also being targeted/restricted when HAMAS uses it for their purposes. (Here is a historical analogy - The Lusitania was sunk with heavy loss of civilian life - she was in fact carrying arms and thus was a legal target - politically it was a disaster for Germany as it contributed to the eventual US entry into the war - but still she was a legal target and ultimately no charges were brought against any Germans for her sinking).

[BaltimoreSkins]

Originally Posted by nonniey

And again, it goes back to deliberate tactics of HAMAs to maximize casualties within the Palestinian population. HAMAS intent was to prevent targeting of their assets by surrounding those assets with civilians. Israel made the decision not to acquiesce to those tactics which resulted in the large number of civilian casualties. As it wasn't the civilians who were the targets a, b and d above don't apply, and the claim of c. is a bit dubious as movement of medicine and food to Palestinians has occurred (with that also being targeted/restricted when HAMAS uses it for their purposes. (Here is a historical analogy - The Lusitania was sunk with heavy loss of civilian life - she was in fact carrying arms and thus was a legal target - politically it was a disaster for Germany as it contributed to the eventual US entry into the war - but still she was a legal target and ultimately no charges were brought against any Germans for her sinking).

I'd feel a lot more confident in this reply if HAMAS didn't agree to the cease fire deal that Israel had put forth and then Israel decide to renege on it back in July. There are plenty of other incidents which strike me as criminal as well. Such as when Israel designates safe zones for Palestinians and then bombs those areas or repeatedly raiding food aid distribution and throwing out the food despite knowing there are no terrorists there. I feel like over the course of the last year Israel has altered their tactics to become far more aggressive with the goal of taking land, their motives have shifted.

What are your thoughts on them moving into the Golan Heights buffer zone and then further into Syrian territory?

[nonniey]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

I'd feel a lot more confident in this reply if HAMAS didn't agree to the cease fire deal that Israel had put forth and then Israel decide to renege on it back in July. There are plenty of other incidents which strike me as criminal as well. Such as when Israel designates safe zones for Palestinians and then bombs those areas or repeatedly raiding food aid distribution and throwing out the food despite knowing there are no terrorists there. I feel like over the course of the last year Israel has altered their tactics to become far more aggressive with the goal of taking land, their motives have shifted.

What are your thoughts on them moving into the Golan Heights buffer zone and then further into Syrian territory?

I'd have to give the later some more thought. If it is temporary probably no major issue (probably).

[Chico23231]

Originally Posted by BaltimoreSkins

I'd feel a lot more confident in this reply if HAMAS didn't agree to the cease fire deal that Israel had put forth and then Israel decide to renege on it back in July. There are plenty of other incidents which strike me as criminal as well. Such as when Israel designates safe zones for Palestinians and then bombs those areas or repeatedly raiding food aid distribution and throwing out the food despite knowing there are no terrorists there. I feel like over the course of the last year Israel has altered their tactics to become far more aggressive with the goal of taking land, their motives have shifted.

What are your thoughts on them moving into the Golan Heights buffer zone and then further into Syrian territory?

Why were Palestinians taking part in the Oct 7 attack? It wasn’t just Hamas but citizens who supported the attack to the tune of over 70% in favor of it. They aren’t innocent, they could have supported the West Bank party in 2007, they chose Hamas. Why didn’t Jordan or Egypt open the border to help? Well they have before and know Palestinians are terrorists. I’m sorry, but this is a war Hamas brought and they are only responsible for every single Palestinian death.

Obviously Israel is correct in taking defensive positions Golan and can’t rely on UN. We have seen how the UN enforced the zone in Lebanon and allowed Hezbollah to operate without enforcement.

I would advise the Syrian rebels to tread lightly with Israel.