The Fallacy of Strength of Schedule

[Schneed10]

This week SI.com’s Don Banks provided his preview of the 2006 Washington Redskins after his visit to Redskins’ training camp on August 3rd. You will find no argument here with Mr. Banks’ main point, that the ‘Skins are the leaders to take home the NFC East crown in 2006; however Banks’ rationale regarding the schedule is more than a little perplexing.

Read the article in its entirety here:

http://www.thewarpath.net/wordpress/...h-of-schedule/

And feel free to discuss.

[jamf]

Off Topic: I really like the blog mixed with the forum. Great Read! Thanks.

[FRPLG]

Well said. No need to discuss since I think you are basically 100% on target.

[scowan]

Scheed, I heard Gibbs break a schedule down in groups of 4 one time and that seems to be a good way to handle things from a planning point of view. If you think it will take something like 11-5 or 12-4 to win the division (which I think it will) then you have to basically go 3-1 every 4 games.

Looking at the Skins schedule from that point of view, here is how I see it. They will go 3-1 for the 1st four losing only to Dallas on the road. They may go 2-2 for the next 4 because they are at Indy and at the Giants, two tough games. For the next 4 they could have it all together and go 4-0 beating Philly away and Tampa away and taking care of business at home with the Panthers and Falcons. For the final four you have two divisional opponents at home, Philly and N.Y. and two non-playoff teams from last year on the road in the Rams and the Saints. 3-1 or maybe 4-0 with Gibbs great record in December. They would finish 12-4 or better or maybe slip to 11-5 if they lose that road game to Tampa or one at home to the Giants. Philly does not scare me anymore with their terrible WR situation, so 4-2 in the division with loses to Dallas and N.Y. would be a great NFC East record. I don't think last years 5-1 divisional record is going to happen again, but it would be great if it did.

[MTK]

The whole thing about the Vikes getting some sort of emotional lift is definitely odd.

I always find preseason talk about the schedules to be kinda worthless. It's all about when you play a team. Teams get hot and teams go cold. A team that looks tough now might be a pushover by the time the Skins play them, and conversely a seemingly "easy" win might not be so easy when that game comes up on the schedule.

Everyone in the East is facing a tough schedule, not just the Skins.

[GTripp0012]

Schneed is 100% right here, but I'm sure he already knows that.

Where the difference in schedule between division oponents really matters is the timing of games. For example, the Eagles play 3 road divisional games in consecutive weeks. This is really, really infavorable. It's good to have your road divisional games spread out with at least 2 weeks in between. Thats an advantage.

Strength of Schedule is a misleading stat.

[Schneed10]

You guys are right when you talk about timing. Three straight division road games is a terrible hurdle to overcome. Of course the flipside of that is the Eagles have more home games earlier in the season, so they should look to jump out to a hot start and try to sustain it through that tough December stretch.

Sometimes you get to three straight road games and you're playing red hot. Sometimes you get to three straight home games against soft opponents and you're playing ice cold. Sometimes your opponents have great games, sometimes they have down games. The timing can mean the difference between 10-6 and 9-7 very easily.

Thing is nobody can complain about it. If you're executing well enough, you should be able to overcome the ups and downs.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

If you're executing well enough, you should be able to overcome the ups and downs.

Ultimately that's what the entire season boils down to. The good teams will overcome, the bad ones won't.

[Master4Caster]

Originally Posted by scowan

Scheed, I heard Gibbs break a schedule down in groups of 4 one time and that seems to be a good way to handle things from a planning point of view. If you think it will take something like 11-5 or 12-4 to win the division (which I think it will) then you have to basically go 3-1 every 4 games.

Scowan, I wished I said that. Well put. Only, I think the Skins can take Dallas in Dallas. I'm worried about the Panthers at home.

[Gmanc711]

Originally Posted by Master4Caster

Scowan, I wished I said that. Well put. Only, I think the Skins can take Dallas in Dallas. I'm worried about the Panthers at home.

I'm also worried about the "Raider" type game this year. When we play a team that we should easily beat but end up playing like crap. We were close to overcoming somtihng like that in that game last year, but we need to get the win in a situation like that next year. (Titans is the game I have my eye on for that).