QB or defense: what's the bigger problem?

[Southpaw]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Out of curiosity, which part of his deal hasn't he been holding up? He hasn't been inaccurate, and he moves the ball. So do you want him to start changing Saunders' plays in the huddle or something? Is that why he sucks, he accepts coaching?

First of all, I didn't say he sucks, just that he's not getting it done. And moving the ball and accuracy are fine, but when he has less touchdowns than starts, throws a four yard pass on 3rd and 8 constantly, and skips the ball to open receivers, he's not holding up his end of the deal.

Oh, I almost forgot... 2-5.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Southpaw

First of all, I didn't say he sucks, just that he's not getting it done. And moving the ball and accuracy are fine, but when he has less touchdowns than starts, throws a four yard pass on 3rd and 8 constantly, and skips the ball to open receivers, he's not holding up his end of the deal.

Oh, I almost forgot... 2-5.

Ok, my fault for misquoting you then. But still...

The four yard passes on 3rd and 8 are what I was referring to by changing the plays in the huddle. Obviously, he checks down because the main reciever is covered. So if there was a better play call, the intended reciever would be open, because a pre snap read determines where the ball is going to go against 3rd down pressure. So what normally happens is that teams blitz us on 3rd down, Brunell has time to look at one reciever which is taken away for a multitude of reasons, and he checks it down. Running routes like all curl or all slant versus the blitz would allow Brunell to pick a guy before the snap and deliver the ball...but we never use these plays on third down. I think Saunders is getting too creative on a down where a conversion is critical.

I should be fair. On the flip side of the coin, the offense is more efficient than last year because on first and second down, we are more creative in the passing game and when not facing a blitz, work the intermediate passing game quite well. That's a big perk with an Al Saunders offense. But vs a blitz, a check down is the only way to beat it if the intended reciever is covered. My theroy is consistent with those observations of Brunell looking at one guy and then checking down.

As for the fewer TD's than games played:
1. That's not even true. Brunell has 7 starts and 7 TD passes.
2. Clinton Portis is second in the league with 6 TD runs. You can't score more than one TD a drive, so who the hell in their right mind would penalize the QB for a TD scored in the rushing game. Such I believe is the fundamental flaw of QB rating as a stat (which Brunell still ranks high in this season).

I don't remember him skipping a ball in since the Dallas game, which is pretty impressive for any QB. Then again, I was following the Tennessee game on radio, so I have no visuals from that game whatsoever.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The four yard passes on 3rd and 8 are what I was referring to by changing the plays in the huddle. Obviously, he checks down because the main reciever is covered. So if there was a better play call, the intended reciever would be open, because a pre snap read determines where the ball is going to go against 3rd down pressure. So what normally happens is that teams blitz us on 3rd down, Brunell has time to look at one reciever which is taken away for a multitude of reasons, and he checks it down.

that's precisely correct. because Brunell needs a DB to have fallen down for him to feel safe throwing a ball into a tight spot on the field during a blitz. that's the ability that makes a good QB. a receiver being "covered" is a relative term, but for ultra-conservative Brunell, it takes an overtime desperation for him to test that term. but hey, Ladell is always open. until he gets to the line of schrimmage that is....

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

that's precisely correct. because Brunell needs a DB to have fallen down for him to feel safe throwing a ball into a tight spot on the field during a blitz. that's the ability that makes a good QB. a receiver being "covered" is a relative term, but for ultra-conservative Brunell, it takes an overtime desperation for him to test that term. but hey, Ladell is always open. until he gets to the line of schrimmage that is....

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

[61cad]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

Did you see how the Colts defense played the check down in the 2nd half?

A bet the remaining teams on the schedule will play it the same way.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 61cad

Did you see how the Colts defense played the check down in the 2nd half?

A bet the remaining teams on the schedule will play it the same way.

I hope your right. Then there won't be enough guys to bracket the intended reciever in blitz situations. First down, Redskins.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I hope your right. Then there won't be enough guys to bracket the intended reciever in blitz situations. First down, Redskins.

ah, but then we get back into what Brunell considers "open". his reflex so far has been to check down immediately, and defenses have done everything to encourage this, because they know how to stop it.

Brunell is well documented to avoid throwing to the middle of the field (BEFORE Saunders), so teams do the ideal defense against that tendency, the ubiquitous Cover-2. the safeties bracket the outside recievers toward the sidelines, where Brunell does throw often (to avoid INTs surely) and essentially double cover his number 1 and 2.

1 LB covers Cooley (or the Nickelback covers ARE in 3 WR sets), if Cooley stays in to max protect that LB becomes a pass rusher. the other LB goes on a blitz to make Brunell dump it off/and or occupy the dump off in a block, remember both his WRs are bracketed under and over already...

since Brunell won't throw to the middle of the field, the middle linebacker doesn't need to run up and cover the gap left by the safeties. instead he can stay on a spy near the line to stop the dump off, or the 'surprise' draw or double cover Cooley if need be.

it's what defenses have been doing to us like clockwork this whole season. i cant see if our WRs are taking middle of the field routes, but i definitely know Brunell isn't throwing there. defenses are taking advantage of Brunell's tendencies and dictating exactly what we get. while you can call him 'efficient' you can also call him dangerously predictable.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

it's still a check down correct? the non-primary read. the "covered" argument starkly remains.

does this elusive 'efficiency' stat reflect combined TDs, redzone scoring and W-Ls? (i know that last one is heavily defense dependent)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

it's still a check down correct? the non-primary read. the "covered" argument starkly remains.

does this elusive 'efficiency' stat reflect combined TDs, redzone scoring and W-Ls? (i know that last one is heavily defense dependent)

It's a play by play breakdown of offensive production compared to the league average in a certain situation. It's point based, and has been refined over the years. Basically if the Redskins are in a 3rd and 10 (adjusted for the team they are playing), there is a certain league expectation for an offense on 3rd and 10. They are to convert a certain percentage of the time, and they are supposed to average a certain number of yards on the play. Over the course of a game, if they convert a number of first downs thats above league expectation and average more yards per play than league expectation, their DVOA stat for the game will be positive.

W-L is not a factor. The idea is to go beyond the game and see why teams are winning and losing.