QB or defense: what's the bigger problem?

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

The four yard passes on 3rd and 8 are what I was referring to by changing the plays in the huddle. Obviously, he checks down because the main reciever is covered. So if there was a better play call, the intended reciever would be open, because a pre snap read determines where the ball is going to go against 3rd down pressure. So what normally happens is that teams blitz us on 3rd down, Brunell has time to look at one reciever which is taken away for a multitude of reasons, and he checks it down.

that's precisely correct. because Brunell needs a DB to have fallen down for him to feel safe throwing a ball into a tight spot on the field during a blitz. that's the ability that makes a good QB. a receiver being "covered" is a relative term, but for ultra-conservative Brunell, it takes an overtime desperation for him to test that term. but hey, Ladell is always open. until he gets to the line of schrimmage that is....

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

that's precisely correct. because Brunell needs a DB to have fallen down for him to feel safe throwing a ball into a tight spot on the field during a blitz. that's the ability that makes a good QB. a receiver being "covered" is a relative term, but for ultra-conservative Brunell, it takes an overtime desperation for him to test that term. but hey, Ladell is always open. until he gets to the line of schrimmage that is....

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

[61cad]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

Did you see how the Colts defense played the check down in the 2nd half?

A bet the remaining teams on the schedule will play it the same way.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by 61cad

Did you see how the Colts defense played the check down in the 2nd half?

A bet the remaining teams on the schedule will play it the same way.

I hope your right. Then there won't be enough guys to bracket the intended reciever in blitz situations. First down, Redskins.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I hope your right. Then there won't be enough guys to bracket the intended reciever in blitz situations. First down, Redskins.

ah, but then we get back into what Brunell considers "open". his reflex so far has been to check down immediately, and defenses have done everything to encourage this, because they know how to stop it.

Brunell is well documented to avoid throwing to the middle of the field (BEFORE Saunders), so teams do the ideal defense against that tendency, the ubiquitous Cover-2. the safeties bracket the outside recievers toward the sidelines, where Brunell does throw often (to avoid INTs surely) and essentially double cover his number 1 and 2.

1 LB covers Cooley (or the Nickelback covers ARE in 3 WR sets), if Cooley stays in to max protect that LB becomes a pass rusher. the other LB goes on a blitz to make Brunell dump it off/and or occupy the dump off in a block, remember both his WRs are bracketed under and over already...

since Brunell won't throw to the middle of the field, the middle linebacker doesn't need to run up and cover the gap left by the safeties. instead he can stay on a spy near the line to stop the dump off, or the 'surprise' draw or double cover Cooley if need be.

it's what defenses have been doing to us like clockwork this whole season. i cant see if our WRs are taking middle of the field routes, but i definitely know Brunell isn't throwing there. defenses are taking advantage of Brunell's tendencies and dictating exactly what we get. while you can call him 'efficient' you can also call him dangerously predictable.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

ah, but then we get back into what Brunell considers "open". his reflex so far has been to check down immediately, and defenses have done everything to encourage this, because they know how to stop it.

Brunell is well documented to avoid throwing to the middle of the field (BEFORE Saunders), so teams do the ideal defense against that tendency, the ubiquitous Cover-2. the safeties bracket the outside recievers toward the sidelines, where Brunell does throw often (to avoid INTs surely) and essentially double cover his number 1 and 2.

1 LB covers Cooley (or the Nickelback covers ARE in 3 WR sets), if Cooley stays in to max protect that LB becomes a pass rusher. the other LB goes on a blitz to make Brunell dump it off/and or occupy the dump off in a block, remember both his WRs are bracketed under and over already...

since Brunell won't throw to the middle of the field, the middle linebacker doesn't need to run up and cover the gap left by the safeties. instead he can stay on a spy near the line to stop the dump off, or the 'surprise' draw or double cover Cooley if need be.

it's what defenses have been doing to us like clockwork this whole season. i cant see if our WRs are taking middle of the field routes, but i definitely know Brunell isn't throwing there. defenses are taking advantage of Brunell's tendencies and dictating exactly what we get. while you can call him 'efficient' you can also call him dangerously predictable.

Wait, are you saying that the Skins see more cover two than any other team? That would be a very interesting point if true, but I'm sure someone would have picked up on that.

If Cooley is covered by a linebacker in this scheme every play (which would be really stupid defense, but OK), I'd throw him the ball every play. 10 yard hook or something.

If defenses have been running this scheme like clockwork against us, it hasnt been working. We have more points scored than 22 other teams. That includes return TDs (Randle El and Rock) and Defensive TDs (none), but so does everyone elses numbers.

If the 'window' of the field (between the safeties) is as wide open as you think it is, I seriously would hope that Al Saunders would have realized this by now. Even then, a theroy that says Brunell is afraid to throw to a wide open area of the field doesn't hold much water. Granted, the safeties have more time to cover passes thrown down the field (thats why they are low percentage passes after all), but if the opponent was playing a bastardized hard 2 against us each week every play, it seems like a monkey could beat it.

More realistically, it's a coverage we are seeing a few times a game, and when we have the right play called, Lloyd goes down the middle for 20+. When we don't, we end up checking down into LB territory. That's not a bad way to play it. It's not a coverage that would be apparent presnap, it would likely look like any other even (cover 2, quarters) coverage.

Also, its tough to blitz out of a hard 2, because if you run to the blitzer, you go all the way to the safeties. Brunell doesn't usually check down unless hes facing a blitz. If no ones open, he has a tendency to roll, look, and throw it away. Very conservative, yes, but its a safe effective way to move the ball.

Overanalysis in its truest form.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Wait, are you saying that the Skins see more cover two than any other team? That would be a very interesting point if true, but I'm sure someone would have picked up on that.

yes. let me find the link.

If Cooley is covered by a linebacker in this scheme every play (which would be really stupid defense, but OK), I'd throw him the ball every play. 10 yard hook or something.

that's my point, I would too. the last TD Cooley had was that play, but Cooley isn't getting it enough as is, being covered by a LB in man or zone.

If the 'window' of the field (between the safeties) is as wide open as you think it is, I seriously would hope that Al Saunders would have realized this by now. Even then, a theroy that says Brunell is afraid to throw to a wide open area of the field doesn't hold much water. Granted, the safeties have more time to cover passes thrown down the field (thats why they are low percentage passes after all), but if the opponent was playing a bastardized hard 2 against us each week every play, it seems like a monkey could beat it.

More realistically, it's a coverage we are seeing a few times a game, and when we have the right play called, Lloyd goes down the middle for 20+. When we don't, we end up checking down into LB territory. That's not a bad way to play it. It's not a coverage that would be apparent presnap, it would likely look like any other even (cover 2, quarters) coverage.

exactly about the monkey, hence the frustation. Brunell not throwing to the middle of the field isn't a theory, it was illustrated in game 2 with stats before Saunders' offense came to town, and it's a recent career hallmark of his conservative play.

of course it's not an every down defense, my point was that defenses don't feel the need to cover the window because of Brunell's tendencies. Lloyd has made that exact over the middle 20yarder by the way, but not often enough (just ask Lloyd when he's not screaming), the 2-3 times this season Brunell has reacted quickly enough and felt confident enough for it.

Also, its tough to blitz out of a hard 2, because if you run to the blitzer, you go all the way to the safeties. Brunell doesn't usually check down unless hes facing a blitz. If no ones open, he has a tendency to roll, look, and throw it away. Very conservative, yes, but its a safe effective way to move the ball.

huh? i just said the mike stays in the instance i gave, its him barreling his way to the dump off/runner way before the safeties, because he knows where Mark is throwing (or where Portis is drawing). especially if Cooley stayed in to block. no need for a cover-3 when Mark doesn't look over the middle past the LB. and again, it was a blitz.

[illdefined]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No...that's the Al Saunders way of offense. It has been the entire time in Kansas City. Do you ever remember seeing Larry Johnson catch a check down and going for 15-25 yards on a highlight last year? Thats Saunders saying "If you are going to blitz, and take away the intended target, the check down will be open." That's like a golden rule of his blitz philosophy, and its why Brunell performs the way he does. You aren't forced to like it, but once again, we rank top 1/4 in efficiency, and anytime you don't get the first down on third or fourth, you hurt your efficiency statistic. So despite all of Al and Mark's "shortcomings", 25 teams are less efficient on offense than the Washington Redskins.

it's still a check down correct? the non-primary read. the "covered" argument starkly remains.

does this elusive 'efficiency' stat reflect combined TDs, redzone scoring and W-Ls? (i know that last one is heavily defense dependent)

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by illdefined

it's still a check down correct? the non-primary read. the "covered" argument starkly remains.

does this elusive 'efficiency' stat reflect combined TDs, redzone scoring and W-Ls? (i know that last one is heavily defense dependent)

It's a play by play breakdown of offensive production compared to the league average in a certain situation. It's point based, and has been refined over the years. Basically if the Redskins are in a 3rd and 10 (adjusted for the team they are playing), there is a certain league expectation for an offense on 3rd and 10. They are to convert a certain percentage of the time, and they are supposed to average a certain number of yards on the play. Over the course of a game, if they convert a number of first downs thats above league expectation and average more yards per play than league expectation, their DVOA stat for the game will be positive.

W-L is not a factor. The idea is to go beyond the game and see why teams are winning and losing.