Civil Discussion About Religion

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

OK so here's what I did:

I started with 5 on 2nd 12, 5 on 3rd 12, 5 on red, and 5 on odd. From there, I watched what won and lost. If I won on something, I didn't bet it the next time and I doubled my money on the ones that I didn't win on. I kept doing this based on the patterns, and walked away when I got up. I also put a dollar straddling the 0 and 00 on occasion.

After 8 rolls, I got up by $50 and walked away.

Then I came back, and after 11 rolls I got up by $50 and walked away.

Then I came back, and after 14 rolls, I lost $120. It came up 00 on my very first roll, and I didn't have a $1 on it (because it was my first roll). Then 0 came up three rolls later, and again, since the green squares hadn't hit in a while, I didn't have $1 on it. So after losing $120, I figured the table was cold, so I got up and walked away.

I came back, and with my final 8 rolls, I lost $5.

Overall, I lost $25.

Well, I appreciate you looking into it. I had a feeling something like that would happen (the greens hitting). In my full version explanation, there is a way to avoid that, but it's very complex. Part of the system tells you to not bet if certain patterns appear (or lack in appearance), but it is not possible to do so on that website like it is in real life. After giving the basics a try, do you at least see how the system can work?
Again, I am pleased you gave it a shot, it shows your willingness to check out new things.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Well, I appreciate you looking into it. I had a feeling something like that would happen (the greens hitting). In my full version explanation, there is a way to avoid that, but it's very complex. Part of the system tells you to not bet if certain patterns appear (or lack in appearance), but it is not possible to do so on that website like it is in real life. After giving the basics a try, do you at least see how the system can work?
Again, I am pleased you gave it a shot, it shows your willingness to check out new things.

No, it cannot work over time. If you have won money doing this in the past, you are simply lucky. There is no such thing as a roulette system. The wheel does not have patterns. Each outcome is completely random. If a red came up last roll, the chances of a red coming up this roll are no different than last roll.

You gave me a system, I followed it to the letter, and I lost money. If it's really a good system, it would work every time, there would be no luck involved. It would simply work.

For giving your system a shot, I'd like for you to consider my point of view for a moment. You've been so intent on seeing me try your system, that I don't think you've given full consideration to my points.

The odds of roulette are relatively simple. You're a numbers guy, so you'll be able to follow me here:

Let's look at putting money on the outside bets: odd, even, red, or black. There are 18 spots on the wheel for each one of those that would represent a win. There are 38 total spots on the wheel. So the chances of winning on any one of those bets is 18/38 = 47.36%. Conversely, there is a 52.64% chance you will lose.

Now, if you do win, you get paid 1 to 1. If you bet $1 and win, you win $1. The math works like this: 47.36% chance of winning times $1, plus 52.64% chance of losing times -$1.

(47.36% x $1) + (52.64% x -$1)
($0.4736) + (-$0.5264)
= - $0.052

On average, for every $1 you put on an outside bet, you will lose 5 cents. 47% of the time you win a dollar. 53% of the time you lose a dollar. Overall, on average, that's a loss of 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Look at playing any of the 12s, say first 12. Your chance of winning is 12/38 = 31.58%. Your payoff is 2 to 1. So put a dollar down, you win $2 when you win:

(31.58% x $2) + (68.42% x -$1)
($0.6317) + (-$0.6842)
= - $0.052

Same thing, playing first, second, or third 12, you lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Now look at betting individual numbers, including whether you bet 0 or 00. Pick any number, put a dollar on it. Your payoff is 35 to 1. Your chances of winning are 1/38 = 2.63%.

(2.63% x $35) + (97.37% x $-1)
($0.9210) + (- $0.9737)
= - $0.052

No matter where you bet on the board, on average, you will lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

You've had masters courses, and you can't get a masters without taking statistics courses. So these probabilities should not escape you. The flaw in your system lies in the assumption that the wheel has patterns. It does not. You've fallen hook line and sinker for The Gambler's Fallacy.

If you really thought it was foolproof, you'd quit your job managing that Chilis, and you'd be in Vegas raking in millions upon millions. It doesn't work. Your previous winnings have been due to one thing only: LUCK.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

No, it cannot work over time. If you have won money doing this in the past, you are simply lucky. There is no such thing as a roulette system. The wheel does not have patterns. Each outcome is completely random. If a red came up last roll, the chances of a red coming up this roll are no different than last roll.

You gave me a system, I followed it to the letter, and I lost money. If it's really a good system, it would work every time, there would be no luck involved. It would simply work.

For giving your system a shot, I'd like for you to consider my point of view for a moment. You've been so intent on seeing me try your system, that I don't think you've given full consideration to my points.

The odds of roulette are relatively simple. You're a numbers guy, so you'll be able to follow me here:

Let's look at putting money on the outside bets: odd, even, red, or black. There are 18 spots on the wheel for each one of those that would represent a win. There are 38 total spots on the wheel. So the chances of winning on any one of those bets is 18/38 = 47.36%. Conversely, there is a 52.64% chance you will lose.

Now, if you do win, you get paid 1 to 1. If you bet $1 and win, you win $1. The math works like this: 47.36% chance of winning times $1, plus 52.64% chance of losing times -$1.

(47.36% x $1) + (52.64% x -$1)
($0.4736) + (-$0.5264)
= - $0.052

On average, for every $1 you put on an outside bet, you will lose 5 cents. 47% of the time you win a dollar. 53% of the time you lose a dollar. Overall, on average, that's a loss of 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Look at playing any of the 12s, say first 12. Your chance of winning is 12/38 = 31.58%. Your payoff is 2 to 1. So put a dollar down, you win $2 when you win:

(31.58% x $2) + (68.42% x -$1)
($0.6317) + (-$0.6842)
= - $0.052

Same thing, playing first, second, or third 12, you lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Now look at betting individual numbers, including whether you bet 0 or 00. Pick any number, put a dollar on it. Your payoff is 35 to 1. Your chances of winning are 1/38 = 2.63%.

(2.63% x $35) + (97.37% x $-1)
($0.9210) + (- $0.9737)
= - $0.052

No matter where you bet on the board, on average, you will lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

You've had masters courses, and you can't get a masters without taking statistics courses. So these probabilities should not escape you. The flaw in your system lies in the assumption that the wheel has patterns. It does not. You've fallen hook line and sinker for The Gambler's Fallacy.

If you really thought it was foolproof, you'd quit your job managing that Chilis, and you'd be in Vegas raking in millions upon millions. It doesn't work. Your previous winnings have been due to one thing only: LUCK.

Just out of curiousity, why do you think I have not looked at the numbers? I wrote a book on how to beat roulette...everywhere you look in the book there are stats. There are stats for stats. I understand you have not read it cover to cover, but trust me, I know the numbers.

I never said it was foolproof. In fact I said you will lose battles but win the war. I know my system works because I put it to real world use with thousands upon thousands of rolls. I asked you to check out the "basics" of my system. I'm sure you even realize that the word "basic" means the bare essentials, not the full blown "complex" system. I have won rubes money with this system. Again, I know it works. I doubt you can call about 20 people "lucky". When I actually finish up the book, and get it published, I will gladly send you a copy.
I think you are thinking that in order for this to work, it has to win every single time you play...and that's not the case. Only 1 part of my system is 100%. (I'll explain that at the end of this post) I just made it to where the odds are now in my favor. I know you don't believe that, and that's cool. There are many things in this world that people won't believe for a variety of reasons, and it's your right.

I am curious about 1 thing you mentioned:

Look at playing any of the 12s, say first 12. Your chance of winning is 12/38 = 31.58%. Your payoff is 2 to 1. So put a dollar down, you win $2 when you win:

(31.58% x $2) + (68.42% x -$1)
($0.6317) + (-$0.6842)
= - $0.052

Same thing, playing first, second, or third 12, you lose 5 cents per dollar you bet.

Did you play the 2nd 12 and 3rd 12 at the same time, or at different times? Because I NEVER said to play them seperately...the odds of winning when you play both at the same time are approximately 63.2%.

I have a fundamental belief that the world will right itself. So while you say if the wheel hits red 3 times in a row, the odds of it hitting red again is 50/50 (less than when you count the greens), I say the odds of it hitting black goes up. It's like what I said to you about flipping a coin. If it hits tails 10 times in a row, eventually it will hit heads at a higher rate than tails. Why? Because there is something in this world that will even it out. I can't explain it, and I can't prove it yet...but I feel it's there. There is no need to try to rip that thought apart, I understand it can't be proven and it is a unique belief. Some day I will prove it, somehow. Until then, your stats are correct.
I have never seen red or black hit more than 8 times in a row. So if I am to bet against red (after it hit 3 times in a row) my odds go up that I will win since the odds of red hitting more than 8 times in row is astronomical.
So let's break this down to the simplest of forms.
Bet $5 on red after black hit 3 times. Keep doubling it whenever you lose. Eventually it will hit red...we can all agree on that right? So what happens when it does? You win money...more than you lost (by $5 to be exact). How can that simple task be wrong? My system takes that basic thought and expands upon it. Granted it gets very complex, but you can't argue with that simple task. It works...it will ALWAYS work. That is undenyable. If all you were to do is bet like I just said, you WILL walk away with money. But it is time consuming. If I only did that in Vegas and I won (on average) every 10 minutes, I would win $30 an hour. If I did that for 8 hours, that's $240. Do that 5 times a week, and that's $1200. Do that for 52 weeks, and that's $62400 a year. So can it be done...absolutely. Do you get health benefits, a 401k, dental benefits, vision plan, vacation time etc...heck no.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Just out of curiousity, why do you think I have not looked at the numbers? I wrote a book on how to beat roulette...everywhere you look in the book there are stats. There are stats for stats. I understand you have not read it cover to cover, but trust me, I know the numbers.

You may be able to multiply and divide, but you don't understand the #1 premise in statistics: randomness.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I never said it was foolproof. In fact I said you will lose battles but win the war. I know my system works because I put it to real world use with thousands upon thousands of rolls. I asked you to check out the "basics" of my system. I'm sure you even realize that the word "basic" means the bare essentials, not the full blown "complex" system. I have won rubes money with this system. Again, I know it works. I doubt you can call about 20 people "lucky". When I actually finish up the book, and get it published, I will gladly send you a copy.
I think you are thinking that in order for this to work, it has to win every single time you play...and that's not the case. Only 1 part of my system is 100%. (I'll explain that at the end of this post) I just made it to where the odds are now in my favor. I know you don't believe that, and that's cool. There are many things in this world that people won't believe for a variety of reasons, and it's your right.

Look man, you're backtracking. You told me I would make money using your system. I did exactly what you said to do. I'll try it for another 40 rolls tonight, but I don't think it's going to change anything.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I am curious about 1 thing you mentioned:

Did you play the 2nd 12 and 3rd 12 at the same time, or at different times? Because I NEVER said to play them seperately...the odds of winning when you play both at the same time are approximately 63.2%.

I did EXACTLY what you told me to do. I always bet the 2nd and 3rd 12 at the same time. The odds of winning in this situation would be 24/38, or 63.2% just as you said. If bet $1 on 2nd 12 and $1 on 3rd 12, there are four possible outcomes:

The ball hits 1st 12, and I lose both of my dollars.
The ball hits 2nd 12, I get paid $2, but I lose the dollar I bet on 3rd 12.
The ball hits 3rd 12, I get paid $2, but I lose the dollar I bet on 2nd 12.
The ball hits a green square, and I lose both my dollars.

So the math is:
(31.57% x [$2 - $1]) + (31.57% x [$2 - $1]) + (31.57% x -$2) + (5.26% x -$2)
= - $0.1052

You lose 10 cents per two dollars you bet. That's the same as losing 5 cents for every dollar you bet. No matter what, the odds don't change.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I have a fundamental belief that the world will right itself. So while you say if the wheel hits red 3 times in a row, the odds of it hitting red again is 50/50 (less than when you count the greens), I say the odds of it hitting black goes up. It's like what I said to you about flipping a coin. If it hits tails 10 times in a row, eventually it will hit heads at a higher rate than tails. Why? Because there is something in this world that will even it out. I can't explain it, and I can't prove it yet...but I feel it's there. There is no need to try to rip that thought apart, I understand it can't be proven and it is a unique belief. Some day I will prove it, somehow. Until then, your stats are correct.

This evening out you speak of is a phenomenon in statisctics which seems to have escaped you. You should have covered this in your schooling. It's the basic law of averages. It says that the odds of any individual coin flip don't change. Each flip is always 50%. If you start off with 10 heads, the chances of heads on the next flip is 50%. The evening out occurs over millions and millions of flips. Somewhere in the subsequent flips, you're just as likely to get 10 tails in a row, just as you got the 10 heads in the beginning. This does not mean that the individual chances of a coin flip have changed from 50%. It means that if you flip the coin enough, the results will asymptotically approach 50%, no matter how many heads you started with.

Originally Posted by jsarno

I have never seen red or black hit more than 8 times in a row. So if I am to bet against red (after it hit 3 times in a row) my odds go up that I will win since the odds of red hitting more than 8 times in row is astronomical.

The odds of any 8 rolls coming up either red or black, all in a row, are 0.25%. That's why you've never seen it. But if you stick around a roulette table long enough, you will see it eventually. When it gets to 7 reds in a row, it has a 50/50 shot of making it to 8. You're not betting on the odds of what happens over the last 7 rolls AND the next one. You're simply betting on the NEXT one.

Originally Posted by jsarno

But it is time consuming. If I only did that in Vegas and I won (on average) every 10 minutes, I would win $30 an hour. If I did that for 8 hours, that's $240. Do that 5 times a week, and that's $1200. Do that for 52 weeks, and that's $62400 a year. So can it be done...absolutely. Do you get health benefits, a 401k, dental benefits, vision plan, vacation time etc...heck no.

You would make a whole lot more than that per hour, per day, per week, per year, if you upped your bet. On the first day, start out betting the table minimum. If your more complex system is as foolproof as you say, you will be up a lot of money by the end of the day. So the next day, double the size of all your bets. So by the end of that day, you'll be up even more. Each day, keep doubling your bets and racking up winnings. Before you know it, if your complex system ALWAYS wins, your pockets will be so deep be able to play the high roller tables all day. You'd be betting $10,000 a spin eventually, winning over $1 million a day. Sounds a lot better than managing Chili's.

If it ALWAYS won, you'd be doing it instead of wasting time writing a book and selling a bogus idea. Either you are trying to sell a book that will cheat people out of money, or flat out don't understand probability. I find that sad for a person with a masters.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

Sounds a lot better than managing Chili's.

Why do you insult my profession? This is not a place to insult with personal attacks and not the first time you made a comment of such.

If it ALWAYS won, you'd be doing it instead of wasting time writing a book and selling a bogus idea. Either you are trying to sell a book that will cheat people out of money, or flat out don't understand probability. I find that sad for a person with a masters.

Funny...no stats....therefore you can't disect it and "prove it wrong". It obviously works. It's as good as gold, and you know it.
What seems to illude you is two things. 1- There are things beyond your control and comprehension. 2- You are dumbfounded that your literal stats don't apply to my system. Cause I know deep down, you didn't try the roulette at all, you made up a scenario in your head, and you posted it. If you followed my system "to the letter" you would have doubled your money instead of giving up when you were $125 down. (I find it extremely hard to believe that green hit 3 times in a span of likely 5 or 6 rolls. The odds of that are slim to none.) 3 people pmed me and told me they won with my system. You are the only one arguing it. Why? No clue at this point, but hey, whatever makes you happy.
There is a fundamental difference between me and you at this point. I look for the truth / positive in a post and expand upon it. You look for any "weakness" or negative and expand upon it. You obviously enjoy the rebuttle process.

I will leave you with this:

Vegas would love you, jsarno. You're a classic case.

Yup, you're right, that's why I win money and you don't, and that's why my simplest form of betting ALWAYS works (again, no stats can prove that doesn't work). But hey, you can lead a horse to water, but can't make him drink.
We obviously aren't going to go anywhere with this. You are not willing to think outside the box and beleive there are things beyond your own eyes. I do. There is nothing that can be said to this point to make this a constructive argument, so my posts will cease about this issue.
Again, I look forward to future debates with you, I'm sure we will meet again.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Why do you insult my profession? This is not a place to insult with personal attacks and not the first time you made a comment of such.

This was not a personal attack. This was merely to say that winning millions per day at the high roller tables would seem to be a lot better than managing a Chili's. It would be a lot better than my job as well. It would be better than anyone's job.

And after my constantly asking you why you don't go to Vegas and play the high roller tables, you still have not answered me why you don't do it. It's simple logic: as quoted by you: "my simplest form of betting ALWAYS works." Therefore you can't lose in Vegas. Therefore there is no downside. So why don't you go there, start winning on the small tables, move over to the high roller tables when you have enough money, and become a millionaire? I mean there's no reason you can't start betting $100 a roll after being there for a couple days. And after a few more days, $1000 a roll. If you can answer why you are ignoring this foolproof opportunity to make millions of dollars, then you will have me convinced.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This was not a personal attack. This was merely to say that winning millions per day at the high roller tables would seem to be a lot better than managing a Chili's. It would be a lot better than my job as well. It would be better than anyone's job.

And after my constantly asking you why you don't go to Vegas and play the high roller tables, you still have not answered me why you don't do it. It's simple logic: as quoted by you: "my simplest form of betting ALWAYS works." Therefore you can't lose in Vegas. Therefore there is no downside. So why don't you go there, start winning on the small tables, move over to the high roller tables when you have enough money, and become a millionaire? I mean there's no reason you can't start betting $100 a roll after being there for a couple days. And after a few more days, $1000 a roll. If you can answer why you are ignoring this foolproof opportunity to make millions of dollars, then you will have me convinced.

You would have to play at a high roller table. There is a limit on a lot of tables. So unless you're a high roller, you can't just wager an infinite amount of money every time. That's why you have to start with $5.

ps- I already explained why I wouldn't go to Vegas, you're just not recalling. Scroll back, it's there.