What will your reaction be to: "With the 6th Selection, The Redskins pick...

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Those 800/100 figures seem pretty arbitrary. The 2nd receiver got thrown at about 45 times this year. I highly doubt that CJ or anyone else can change 45 passes (about 40 receptions if he's really good) into 800 yards (~20 yards/reception). That's pretty preposterous. Realistically he might add another 75-125 yards to the passing offense over the ARE/Lloyd combo over the course of an entire season. Marginal.

Randle El had 32 receptions for 351 yards (11 yards/reception). Are you saying that Calvin Johnson could have gone for 1150 yards in a similar amount of oppertunities?

Maybe he creates a few more yards than Randle El does in the running game...but 100? Is he some sort of lineman out there who takes multiple players out of every play? Randle El isn't a crappy blocker and already does a good job taking the corner out on front side plays. But you honestly think that CJ would create 100 more rushing yards (Not to mention that ARE had over 100 yards rushing last year)?

Minnesota's offense sucked because Brad Johnson had a horrible year, and because Chester Taylor didn't come through when they needed it (no running game+no passing game despite the quality of the O Line which had an underachieving right side). Phili and NE have skimped on the WRs for years and have made top 10 offenses. Look what KC had done for many years.

Having a Santana Moss is a big deal. The guy can turn a simple screen into a 80 yard touchdown. That's a rare ability, and most top WRs in this league don't have that ability.

I think you are misunderstanding my point though. If a team has a great CB core and a weak WR core, they probably shouldn't be drafting someone in the hopes of being the next Darrell Green. However, they probably have much bigger needs than WR. Maybe they should be looking for the next Orlando Pace or Warren Sapp as opposed to the next Rice.

Common sense says that the 9 players who have the biggest effect on the offense are the guys closest to the football. If they all do their jobs to ultimate perfection, playing WR in this league is going to be pretty damn easy :P

a few points:
-el IS a crappy blocker, his size hurts him a lot there.
-my numbers are no more arbitrary than yours. looks at the colts or the cardinals, or the panthers when they had moose. if you have 2 #1 WRs, they can both get 1000+ yards easily. maybe he's a lot better than randle el, so he'd have more chances to make plays than him. that, again, would NOT be marginal.

-third, you totally missed the point - look at the effect TO or stallworth had on games with mcnabb compared to when he didn't have a #1 WR. look at the pats with deion branch compared to last year. it makes a huge difference, and helped them both get to super bowls.

-minnesota may have sucked a lot less if they had someone for johnson to throw the ball to also. It's nice that you can totally discount that, but without a crystal ball, your guess isn't any better than mine.

-if the WR is really good, it makes the QB, RB, OL, etc job easier. the guards and TEs on the colts aren't nearly as good or have nearly the impact that their WRs have. seriously. and saying they aren't involved on every play is like saying a CB is only involved on 1/3rd of all plays. just cause they aren't scoring TDs doesn't mean they're not blocking or running decoy to take guys away from the play.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by That Guy

-if the WR is really good, it makes the QB, RB, OL, etc job easier. the guards and TEs on the colts aren't nearly as good or have nearly the impact that their WRs have. seriously. and saying they aren't involved on every play is like saying a CB is only involved on 1/3rd of all plays. just cause they aren't scoring TDs doesn't mean they're not blocking or running decoy to take guys away from the play.

How does a good wide receiver make a lineman's job any easier? How does he make a running backs job any easier? Most of what wide receivers do requires the QB to do his job. So yes, theroretically a great wide receiver will improve the amount of error a QB has room for. Still, completing the pass is a lot more in control of the QB than the WR. A lot. He has to 1) read the defense, 2) identify the coverage consider the amount of time he has with the rush, 3) know all the routes (not just the one hes throwing at), 4)and deliver the ball on time AND relatively accurately. Conversely, the receiver on most plays has to first get into position to make the play (by adjusting his route if necessary), and then catch the ball. Incompletions are usually due to something that happened at the LOS (obvious exception to the drops/misread by the receiver). Most NFL caliber receivers are realtively similar in the way they do their job before the catch. Put all the names of WRs in the NFL into a hat and pick one out and I'm certain you'll get a guy who can do the above.

That's why I say that a receiver gets his value from after the catch ability. A receiver's ability to run with the ball after the catch seperates him from other receivers. In the case of Calvin Johnson, I haven't noticed a guy who is anything special after the case. I'm sure his skills are adequate, but if I'm taking a WR with my first pick in a draft, I would hope that he would be a threat to take it to the house on every reception. Santana Moss-style.

You want a receiver who is a good blocker of course, but consider what the job asks one to do. Take a corner out of a running play. Most receivers in the league can do this a good percentage of the time already. While some WRs (like Lloyd) are crappy blockers, most NFL receivers can block adequately. This ability does not make Johnson a special player.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

How does a good wide receiver make a lineman's job any easier? How does he make a running backs job any easier?

I think a good QB-WR combo can do a lot for a running back, a lineman, or a tight-end. If teams actually respect a passing attack, they tend to back off the linemen and open lanes for tailbacks.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Most of what wide receivers do requires the QB to do his job. So yes, theroretically a great wide receiver will improve the amount of error a QB has room for. Still, completing the pass is a lot more in control of the QB than the WR. A lot. He has to 1) read the defense, 2) identify the coverage consider the amount of time he has with the rush, 3) know all the routes (not just the one hes throwing at), 4)and deliver the ball on time AND relatively accurately. Conversely, the receiver on most plays has to first get into position to make the play (by adjusting his route if necessary), and then catch the ball. Incompletions are usually due to something that happened at the LOS (obvious exception to the drops/misread by the receiver). Most NFL caliber receivers are realtively similar in the way they do their job before the catch. Put all the names of WRs in the NFL into a hat and pick one out and I'm certain you'll get a guy who can do the above.

I don't doubt that a QBs job is more mentally challenging than a WRs job, but I think you're underestimating the value of a good receiving corps.
I don't think top-notch wideouts are as replaceable as you are making them out to be. If they were easily replaceable, they would be paid accordingly. But, wideouts are paid higher than TEs, FBs, OGs, LBs, FSs, SSs, and many RBs.

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

That's why I say that a receiver gets his value from after the catch ability. A receiver's ability to run with the ball after the catch seperates him from other receivers. In the case of Calvin Johnson, I haven't noticed a guy who is anything special after the case. I'm sure his skills are adequate, but if I'm taking a WR with my first pick in a draft, I would hope that he would be a threat to take it to the house on every reception. Santana Moss-style.

I definately agree that a WRs YAC is important, but I don't think that is necessarily what separates great receivers from average ones. IMHO, Santana Moss' best attribute is not his ability to make YAC (which is very impressive), but his ball-adjustment skills. How many times have we seen a poorly thrown ball snatched out of the air by Moss? I think of the grab in Week 17 by Moss on the throw by ARE, the JAX overtime grab, the catch in the endzone against the Panthers, etc.