Next Year's Cap Situation

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

if they can restructure and extend guys till the next cba, they'll be fine, though we've been and will continue to be at a competitive disadvantage while we maintain such a high level of deadcap and overhead on crappy players.

This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.

[That Guy]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

This assumes that the next CBA will come after another HUGE TV deal. The reason the cap went up so much with the new CBA is because the player's pool of revenues went up in concert with the increase in NFL revenues due to the new TV contract.

But it's hard to imagine TV demand for NFL games getting much higher than it already is here in the US, because interest in the NFL is already at what I'd consider a peak. I don't see a financial catalyst for an even bigger TV deal in 2012 or whenever the next one is up. If there's no increase in TV revenue, there's no reason to believe the cap is going to take another huge jump like it just did.

Unless... the NFL taps into the overseas market and begins to draw more TV viewers in Europe, Mexico, and elsewhere. Which they're attempting to do. Definitely bears watching.

until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by That Guy

until proven otherwise, the NFL is still a growth industry. prices and the cap have never gone down, which means it hasn't peeked yet. before believing any such proclamations to the contrary, i'll have to see statistical proof that the money's drying up.

Not drying up by any means. But what drove the growth over the last five years or so (which led up to the new TV deal) was an increase in TV ratings.

The more eyes watching TV, the more advertisers pay for the 30-second slots.

It'd be good if I could find some data and I'll try to do so, but I'm asserting that TV ratings aren't going to increase here in the US at the same rate that they've been increasing over the last few years.

The NFL could still expand TV viewership into Mexico, Europe, or Canada. That would spur growth, for sure.