How good will JaMarcus Russell be at the Pro Level?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Just out of curiosity, what was your take on Cutler and Young a year ago at this time?

I thought Young would be an average NFL QB, and that both Leinart and Cutler would be better than him.

Of course, I know a lot more about projecting rookie QBs than I did 365 days ago.

But my logic was this: we know something for certain about Young; he can run. We also know based on like even paying attention to college football that he's a better game manager and passer than Vick. So if Vick could even survive in this league, Young would at least be average.

I liked Cutler as an underrated prospect, but didn't feel that his "ceiling" was as high as Leinarts (back in a day when I believed in the concept of "floors" and "ceilings", I'm not that naive anymore). I thought he might be better than Leinart, but also if you thought one guy was going to bust (which I didn't) it was probably going to be Cutler.

I ended up being right that none would bust, that was pretty solid.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I thought Young would be an average NFL QB, and that both Leinart and Cutler would be better than him.

Of course, I know a lot more about projecting rookie QBs than I did 365 days ago.

But my logic was this: we know something for certain about Young; he can run. We also know based on like even paying attention to college football that he's a better game manager and passer than Vick. So if Vick could even survive in this league, Young would at least be average.

I liked Cutler as an underrated prospect, but didn't feel that his "ceiling" was as high as Leinarts (back in a day when I believed in the concept of "floors" and "ceilings", I'm not that naive anymore). I thought he might be better than Leinart, but also if you thought one guy was going to bust (which I didn't) it was probably going to be Cutler.

I ended up being right that none would bust, that was pretty solid.

So I suppose my next question should be what in the past year has changed the way you evaluate a NFL QB prospect? Where did this knowledge come from?

I'm not asking b/c I question your evaluations, I'm asking b/c I like your posts and for the most part I agree with your assessments and opinions.

I for one thought Young would be the best of the 2006 QB draft picks. The jury is still out, but in the end I think it will be Leinart. That new stadium along with Wisenhunt and Grimm, I see Arizona emerging as a solid player in the NFC for years to come.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GMScud

So I suppose my next question should be what in the past year has changed the way you evaluate a NFL QB prospect? Where did this knowledge come from?

I'm not asking b/c I question your evaluations, I'm asking b/c I like your posts and for the most part I agree with your assessments and opinions.

I for one thought Young would be the best of the 2006 QB draft picks. The jury is still out, but in the end I think it will be Leinart. That new stadium along with Wisenhunt and Grimm, I see Arizona emerging as a solid player in the NFC for years to come.

I got into statistical projections and correlations, mainly.

I've come to realize that most of what scouts do for a living is a complete sham for job security to make their work seem like an art, when in reality all it really is would be lazy, shoddy work.

It's not hard at all to project a QB. They all do so much at the college level, I mean we have so much data on them that there should be no excuse for missing badly on a QB prospect. It should be twice as hard to pick at any other position than QB, and for whatever reason, scouts still make mistakes at QB.

I agree with you that Leinart will be the best of the 2006 class. Along with Rivers and Roethlisberger, they will emerge as three of the top QBs in the league. Campbell should be just a stride below that class, around Carson Palmer's level. Brady Quinn should also be an upper echilon QB, but I don't think he will crack the top 5 in the league at any point in his career.

Since 2004, a plethora of great QBs have come into the league, so the teams that are going to be perenial losers from here on out are the ones who don't pick up a great young QB. That's why passing on Quinn would be such a mistake, especially for the Raiders.

It continues to baffle me that at a position as make or break as Quarterback, teams won't do everything they can to make sure they aren't taking a future bust. But that's what seperates the men from the boys, I guess.

[KLHJ2]

[quote=GTripp0012;298899]I got into statistical projections and correlations, mainly.

"I agree with you that Leinart will be the best of the 2006 class. Along with Rivers and Roethlisberger, they will emerge as three of the top QBs in the league. Campbell should be just a stride below that class, around Carson Palmer's level. Brady Quinn should also be an upper echilon QB, but I don't think he will crack the top 5 in the league at any point in his career."


I cant believe that you put any of those QB's above Palmer. Right now the only one comparable is Rothlisberger if anything they are on the same level.

[skinsfan69]

[quote=angryssg;298902]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I got into statistical projections and correlations, mainly.

"I agree with you that Leinart will be the best of the 2006 class. Along with Rivers and Roethlisberger, they will emerge as three of the top QBs in the league. Campbell should be just a stride below that class, around Carson Palmer's level. Brady Quinn should also be an upper echilon QB, but I don't think he will crack the top 5 in the league at any point in his career."


I cant believe that you put any of those QB's above Palmer. Right now the only one comparable is Rothlisberger if anything they are on the same level.

Last year at this time I would have said Leinart would be the best qb based on his college career. I had doubts about Young because of the offense he played in at Texas and his throwing motion. But he proved me wrong. Young was the best rookie qb last year hands down. He could be the best out of last years class. One thing you can not judge is the intangibles. Young has the ability to take the team and carry it. He does things that don't show up in the stat sheet and that's what makes him so impressive. Plus who is the guy throwing to? He has no WR's at all.

Cutler reminds me of Farve. Gunslinger that throws in double coverage way too much. Jury is still out on him. But you can't deny he has the skills to be great.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by angryssg

I cant believe that you put any of those QB's above Palmer. Right now the only one comparable is Rothlisberger if anything they are on the same level.

Remember, Palmer is a guy playing in his prime. I'm saying that when Leinart and Rivers and Roethlisberger get a few more years starting experience under their belt, they will be as good, maybe a little better than Palmer.

And that's not bashing Palmer in anyway, just saying there are better QBs than him. He's almost certainly a perennial pro bowler.

[EARTHQUAKE2689]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Remember, Palmer is a guy playing in his prime. I'm saying that when Leinart and Rivers and Roethlisberger get a few more years starting experience under their belt, they will be as good, maybe a little better than Palmer.

And that's not bashing Palmer in anyway, just saying there are better QBs than him. He's almost certainly a perennial pro bowler.

Spoken like a true football genius very well put tripp could not have said it better myself