Is Russell really better than Quinn?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

We can talk about this subject 500 different ways. The only way to tell is about 2-3 years from now. No one has a crystal ball. Brady Quinn is probably better prepared to play right now. But Russell has the higher ceiling and better physical gifts. I think we can all agree on those two things. So who freaking knows? There is no such thing as a draft expert.

You don't need a crystal ball when you can correlate 10 years of draft prospects success rate to their college experience. Russell only started 29 games. I don't need a freakin crystal ball to know that he is never going to be an elite player.

Brady Quinn is better prepared right now (46 starts), and this will never change barring injury. There is a common misconception that players have "floors" and "ceilings".

But isn't this concept just a giant neon admittance that the grading process that is used today has flaws.

Think about it. In reality, every player lies at a definate point somewhere between his "floor" and his "ceiling". So all a floor and ceiling really are is an allowance for scouting error. Correct?

So when somebody says "Player X has a lower floor than player Y, but a higher ceiling", what I hear is "I have no freaking clue how to grade prospects".

Please don't take that personally, because its not a knock on you Skinsfan69, it's a knock on the entire process that we have come to accept.

What we can all agree on is that either Quinn is better than Russell or Russell is better than Quinn. That seems redundant, but the concept of floors and ceilings allows scouts to creatively dart around what their actual job is, ranking the players.

We as fans should NOT accept floors and ceilings, because that's just simply a cop out for not scouting a prospect well enough. We should try our best to pinpoint each guys career path prior to the draft, like I have done, and let the QBs themselves prove us right or wrong.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

You don't need a crystal ball when you can correlate 10 years of draft prospects success rate to their college experience. Russell only started 29 games. I don't need a freakin crystal ball to know that he is never going to be an elite player.

Brady Quinn is better prepared right now (46 starts), and this will never change barring injury. There is a common misconception that players have "floors" and "ceilings".

But isn't this concept just a giant neon admittance that the grading process that is used today has flaws.

Think about it. In reality, every player lies at a definate point somewhere between his "floor" and his "ceiling". So all a floor and ceiling really are is an allowance for scouting error. Correct?

So when somebody says "Player X has a lower floor than player Y, but a higher ceiling", what I hear is "I have no freaking clue how to grade prospects".

Please don't take that personally, because its not a knock on you Skinsfan69, it's a knock on the entire process that we have come to accept.

What we can all agree on is that either Quinn is better than Russell or Russell is better than Quinn. That seems redundant, but the concept of floors and ceilings allows scouts to creatively dart around what their actual job is, ranking the players.

We as fans should NOT accept floors and ceilings, because that's just simply a cop out for not scouting a prospect well enough. We should try our best to pinpoint each guys career path prior to the draft, like I have done, and let the QBs themselves prove us right or wrong.

I understand what your saying but what gives you the qualifications to judge if Russell is or is not ready. Just because he started 29 games means he not ready?? That's complete BS. I know your brought out stats that showed guys that started less than 30 games. But what about the other side to that? I'm sure many NFL QB's in the past, and that are playing now did not start a gazillion games like Bardy Quinn did. You can argue both sides to your theory.

Now I agree that playing 4 years is a big advantage. No question about that. Nothing is better than game experience. But your acting like it can't be done. Your acting like just becase the guy only started 29 games means he can't handle the NFL. I think all that means is he may need to sit his first year, like JC, Carson Palmer and many others.

Tom Brady. Wasn't he sharing time w/ Drew Henson?
Mark Bulger. I know he didn't have a overly productive college career. Wasn't he drafted in the 6th round?
Jake Delhomme. I don't know where he even went to college.
Matt Hasleback. I know he went to BC but I don't think he started a whole bunch of games.
Brad Johnson. Played behind Casey Weldon???? I know he got some experience in the world league but he didn't play a lick in college.
Byron Leftwich. Didn't he play behind Pennington for two years??

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

I understand what your saying but what gives you the qualifications to judge if Russell is or is not ready. Just because he started 29 games means he not ready?? That's complete BS. I know your brought out stats that showed guys that started less than 30 games. But what about the other side to that? I'm sure many NFL QB's in the past, and that are playing now did not start a gazillion games like Bardy Quinn did. You can argue both sides to your theory.

Now I agree that playing 4 years is a big advantage. No question about that. Nothing is better than game experience. But your acting like it can't be done. Your acting like just becase the guy only started 29 games means he can't handle the NFL. I think all that means is he may need to sit his first year, like JC, Carson Palmer and many others.

Tom Brady. Wasn't he sharing time w/ Drew Henson?
Mark Bulger. I know he didn't have a overly productive college career. Wasn't he drafted in the 6th round?
Jake Delhomme. I don't know where he even went to college.
Matt Hasleback. I know he went to BC but I don't think he started a whole bunch of games.
Brad Johnson. Played behind Casey Weldon???? I know he got some experience in the world league but he didn't play a lick in college.
Byron Leftwich. Didn't he play behind Pennington for two years??

This is a pretty solid argument. Let me explain the other part of my theory.

The guys you mentioned (exception to Leftwich who started 36 games, a pretty solid number) were ALL late round picks. These guys have proven that it is possible to have the mental capacity to buck the experience trend. And I expect Russell to have the exact same oppertunity to buck the trened as these guys did. There are always exceptions to every rule.

But for every Brady, Hasselbeck, and Brad Johnson, late round picks who were good prospects, do you have any idea how many late round picks had no talent whatsoever? I'd say the ratio for late round picks is like, 20:1.

So the experience equation is not perfect. Every prospect has his chance to buck the trend. But JaMarcus Russell is no more likely to become an elite passer than Cullen Finnerty (4 year starter at DII GVSU--led all D2 QBs in passing efficiency) is. Russell is FAR, far, far, far more likely to be at least as good as Rex Grossman is though. That's the statistical expectation for Russell. 95% chance that he will play somewhere in Grossman's vincinity. And that's not terrible (the Bears did get to a SB with that quality of player at QB), but its a terrible use of a top five pick.

So yes, I should probably, for sake of not sounding like a know-it-all prick, stop talking about Russell as an absolute certainty to be below average. Nothing is ever certain. I can just say, with a lot of confidence, that he will not be an elite player among the best QBs in the league. And if all stats can give me is a lot of confidence in a prediction, I'll take the 5% chance of error any day.

[skinsfan69]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

This is a pretty solid argument. Let me explain the other part of my theory.

The guys you mentioned (exception to Leftwich who started 36 games, a pretty solid number) were ALL late round picks. These guys have proven that it is possible to have the mental capacity to buck the experience trend. And I expect Russell to have the exact same oppertunity to buck the trened as these guys did. There are always exceptions to every rule.

But for every Brady, Hasselbeck, and Brad Johnson, late round picks who were good prospects, do you have any idea how many late round picks had no talent whatsoever? I'd say the ratio for late round picks is like, 20:1.

So the experience equation is not perfect. Every prospect has his chance to buck the trend. But JaMarcus Russell is no more likely to become an elite passer than Cullen Finnerty (4 year starter at DII GVSU--led all D2 QBs in passing efficiency) is. Russell is FAR, far, far, far more likely to be at least as good as Rex Grossman is though. That's the statistical expectation for Russell. 95% chance that he will play somewhere in Grossman's vincinity. And that's not terrible (the Bears did get to a SB with that quality of player at QB), but its a terrible use of a top five pick.

So yes, I should probably, for sake of not sounding like a know-it-all prick, stop talking about Russell as an absolute certainty to be below average. Nothing is ever certain. I can just say, with a lot of confidence, that he will not be an elite player among the best QBs in the league. And if all stats can give me is a lot of confidence in a prediction, I'll take the 5% chance of error any day.

Personally I wouldn't take Russell or Quinn number one. You can get productive QB's in rounds 3-6. Especially if I were Oak, Det or Clev. Clev already has two young guys in D. Anderson and C. Frye. Although I think Frye isn't really that good. But Anderson can really play. So can John Kitna. Oak should make a trade, or get him if he is cut for D. Culpepper and bring in a solid vet to back him up if he's not ready. Or stick with Walter. All I know was Walter was a STUD in college. Now, I'm not sure if he sucks, or he has no help. All of these teams need some O-linemen in the worst way.

Here is an interesting thing I heard on NFL Network. It was said at the combine that Chris Leak threw the best ball out of all the QB's. Plus he started all 4 years at Fla. Now if Chris Leak were 6'3 or 6'4 instead of 5'11 or 6'0 would he go in the 1st round? What about Troy Smith? Has everyone just all of a sudden gave up on this kid? Wasn't he one of the best qb's in the country, if not the best? What about Kevin Kolb out of Houston? He started all 4 years too. My point is some of these later round guys can really play if they are ever given the chance that Russell and Quinn are going to get. If you judge what they did on the field you could argue that they are just as good as Russelll and Quinn. Some didn't throw the ball as much as say Quinn did, but if they were given that same chance I would argue that they would have put up similar passing numbers that Quinn did.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by skinsfan69

Personally I wouldn't take Russell or Quinn number one. You can get productive QB's in rounds 3-6. Especially if I were Oak, Det or Clev. Clev already has two young guys in D. Anderson and C. Frye. Although I think Frye isn't really that good. But Anderson can really play. So can John Kitna. Oak should make a trade, or get him if he is cut for D. Culpepper and bring in a solid vet to back him up if he's not ready. Or stick with Walter. All I know was Walter was a STUD in college. Now, I'm not sure if he sucks, or he has no help. All of these teams need some O-linemen in the worst way.

Here is an interesting thing I heard on NFL Network. It was said at the combine that Chris Leak threw the best ball out of all the QB's. Plus he started all 4 years at Fla. Now if Chris Leak were 6'3 or 6'4 instead of 5'11 or 6'0 would he go in the 1st round? What about Troy Smith? Has everyone just all of a sudden gave up on this kid? Wasn't he one of the best qb's in the country, if not the best? What about Kevin Kolb out of Houston? He started all 4 years too. My point is some of these later round guys can really play if they are ever given the chance that Russell and Quinn are going to get. If you judge what they did on the field you could argue that they are just as good as Russelll and Quinn. Some didn't throw the ball as much as say Quinn did, but if they were given that same chance I would argue that they would have put up similar passing numbers that Quinn did.

IMO, taking QBs in round 3-6 is a bad strategy because its a total crapshoot. The guy you get probably isn't good and knowing this, theres never really a good time to give a guy significant playing time.

One of the trickiest things about the QB projection system is that it starts to lose its accuracy beyond round 2. So while guys like Leak have numbers that look a lot like Quinn's, they still don't project very well historically due solely to their draft status. In this case, the best explaination is the scouts generally do a pretty good job at seeing which guys can't play. I mean the Brady's of the world seem to slip through the cracks, but generally a 6th round projected guy probably can't play at the NFL level.

Most guys (at QB) can't play. That should be the assumption, as opposed to the other way around. There will probably be a 6th round gem, but I'm not sure theres a good predictive system right now.

If Leak was a 6' 4" guy, would he have a 1st round projection? I don't know. If he was 6' 4" would he be a lot more likely to succeed? I mean, a lot of the stuff I believe says I should answer no to this question, but maybe height does correlate to NFL success given other conditions. Has there been a successful passer under 6 feet at the NFL level? No. Is it impossible to have success and be short? I don't see why it would be.

I don't have all the answers, nor do I claim to. I know a very select few things when it comes to the NFL (like Quinn>Russell with 95% accuracy). Maybe lack of height correlates to NFL failure. But then again, short guys don't often get drafted high, so I fear this could be a weak study.

It's certainly a question worth asking though.