Is Russell really better than Quinn?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by hooskins

But I dont know how much of that is due to the scouts purposely not trying to change or improve. I think they are, and in the world we are in, they must.

Also how can you blame 1st round busts on faulty analysis of draft experts? Perhaps some people just fail, for various reasons. Projecting anything, any business, is not an exact science. While I agree change for improvement is always good, you also have to account for simple fact that some people pan out, and others don't.

Scouts can't even begin to improve themselves until they identify theres a problem. Have you heard Todd McShay on TV? He's so damn cocky that he's the farthest thing from realizing that he just might be wrong.

This second paragraph is just the problem. Nobody ever wonders why these prospects fail. They just make excuses like "he wasn't a hard worker" or "he was in a bad situation" or "he didnt gel with his teammates"

These aren't reasons, Hoo, these are excuses. Until somebody actually investiagates the reasoning for a prospect busting like David Lewin did with QBs (not enough college experience), they can't adjust the problem with scouting.

Scouts in todays game just aren't curious enough to improve themselves. They just take a bust pick, make excuses for him, and move on scouting the only way they know how to.

And its a major problem in todays game.

[hooskins]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Scouts can't even begin to improve themselves until they identify theres a problem. Have you heard Todd McShay on TV? He's so damn cocky that he's the farthest thing from realizing that he just might be wrong.

This second paragraph is just the problem. Nobody ever wonders why these prospects fail. They just make excuses like "he wasn't a hard worker" or "he was in a bad situation" or "he didnt gel with his teammates"

These aren't reasons, Hoo, these are excuses. Until somebody actually investiagates the reasoning for a prospect busting like David Lewin did with QBs (not enough college experience), they can't adjust the problem with scouting.

Scouts in todays game just aren't curious enough to improve themselves. They just take a bust pick, make excuses for him, and move on scouting the only way they know how to.

And its a major problem in todays game.

Gtripp, if you are expecting to find a scientific solution for each problem, you will be highly disappointed. There are SOOO many factors and variables that you would have to isolate and analysis. Draft experts dont have access every single one of these variable that would impact their assessments.


Look I am not saying use that as an excuse. You HAVE to know that when you are a scout. You have realize you cant be perfect. That allows you to change and adapt. I am sure tons of scouts make bad picks and move on, but that is the NFLs fault for not having a system with competition. Competition would weed out all these problems.

Yes you can improve, and maybe there will be better scouts in the future which will minimize busts, but there is no way to eliminate it. Just because we know that, doesnt mean we should stop trying to improve the system, however.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by hooskins

Gtripp, if you are expecting to find a scientific solution for each problem, you will be highly disappointed. There are SOOO many factors and variables that you would have to isolate and analysis. Draft experts dont have access every single one of these variable that would impact their assessments.

Look I am not saying use that as an excuse. You HAVE to know that when you are a scout. You have realize you cant be perfect. That allows you to change and adapt. I am sure tons of scouts make bad picks and move on, but that is the NFLs fault for not having a system with competition. Competition would weed out all these problems.

Yes you can improve, and maybe there will be better scouts in the future which will minimize busts, but there is no way to eliminate it. Just because we know that, doesnt mean we should stop trying to improve the system, however.

I realize that we are far, far away from the draft being an exact science. At least 20 years, probably longer. But there are simple trends that decision makers are turning a blind eye to, and setting back their franchises.

In theory, drafting should get more and more accurate every year. I mean, that's what should be happening. Agreed?

Well, is it? You tell me. If it is, we have a non issue. If it's not improving, it's a bigger issue than anyone in the business could imagine. Because someone with knowledge of all these mistakes will come in and create a perennial winner and dominate their divisions for years, and years, and years until someone figures out whats wrong.

Oh wait, thats what the Pats and Eagles (and maybe Chargers too--its early) are doing already.

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

In theory, drafting should get more and more accurate every year. I mean, that's what should be happening. Agreed?

Oh wait, thats what the Pats and Eagles (and maybe Chargers too--its early) are doing already.

Why should drafting get more accurate every year? I think it is much more difficult than you are allowing. It will never be an exact science.

The Eagles and Pats have done well, but where is the evidence that they are doing anything differently than anyone else? It seems to me they are using the same methods, only with more efficiency and success. Also, don't forget that they have drafted guys like Broderick Bunkley, Jerome McDougle, and Chad Jackson who haven't panned out, so it's not like they don't make mistakes either.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by djnemo65

Why should drafting get more accurate every year? I think it is much more difficult than you are allowing. It will never be an exact science.

The Eagles and Pats have done well, but where is the evidence that they are doing anything differently than anyone else? It seems to me they are using the same methods, only with more efficiency and success. Also, don't forget that they have drafted guys like Broderick Bunkley, Jerome McDougle, and Chad Jackson who haven't panned out, so it's not like they don't make mistakes either.

Because Scouts SHOULD be learning from their mistakes. Once you have more years of information, it should become gradually easier and easier to identify what makes a bust a bust. But scouts don't investigate this.

McDougal was a mistake. Because of McDougal, Eagles scouts, in theory at least, have become more attune to why he busted and will avoid prospects with similar flaws.

You can't grade anything off a guy's rookie year so we don't know if Bunkley or Jackson was a good pick yet. But don't lump them together. Jackson was a 2nd rounder, his expectation as a player should not be the same as Bunkley's.

[djnemo65]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

Because Scouts SHOULD be learning from their mistakes. Once you have more years of information, it should become gradually easier and easier to identify what makes a bust a bust. But scouts don't investigate this.

McDougal was a mistake. Because of McDougal, Eagles scouts, in theory at least, have become more attune to why he busted and will avoid prospects with similar flaws.

You can't grade anything off a guy's rookie year so we don't know if Bunkley or Jackson was a good pick yet. But don't lump them together. Jackson was a 2nd rounder, his expectation as a player should not be the same as Bunkley's.

Well we have your top 10 Gtripp and we have you down as saying Quinn should be the guy, against all popular consensus. So all we can do is wait and see. I have my own opinions but I am not secure enough in them to indict and entire professional caste. So if Quinn turns out to be a better pro than Russell, I will admit you were right, even if all those 70 year old hacks probably won't in turn.

By the way, put me down for bust on Quinn. You can hold me to that too.