It's LaRon Landry!

[Redskins_P]

You guys should really check out JLa's guest blog. Some guy who went by the named Sherrif Gonna Getcha (could it be our very own?) did a really nice breakdown on our defense. I know many might not agree, but he makes some really good points.

I have seriously
considered becoming a sports writer.

Hey J-La,

I'm a big fan of Redskins Insider (I post as Sheriff Gonna Getcha). I had some thoughts and stats about the Landry pick for all the people who really wanted a lineman.

Let me start off by saying that I was a huge Jamaal Anderson advocate and really wanted the Redskins to draft him (or Okoye). After we made the pick official and the reality of it set in (about 3:30am here in Sydney) I started trying to get excited about our defensive backfield and its numerous playmakers. But for some reason I couldn't let go of the idea of having a relentless pass-rushing, run-stuffing DE for our line. But then I took a look at some of our stats for the last three seasons.

I looked at our 2004 defense (ranked #3), 2005 defense (#9), and our pitiful 2006 defense (#31). One stat group I studied included Sacks, Interceptions, and Forced Fumbles because these plays can all have a large impact on the game. We can call them Defensive Impact Plays (DIP). The total DIP numbers were 70 (40 S, 18 INT, 12 FF), 66 (32 S, 16 INT, 18 FF), and 36 (19 S, 6 INT, 11 FF) in 2004, 2005, and 2006 respectively (there was one FF each year by an offensive player which was removed).

There was a slight decrease from 2004 to 2005 (just as the defense had a slight overall decline) but the numbers are fairly comparable. But what jumps out at you is that we had 30 less DIP in 2006 than in 2005. Now I know that anyone who watched us this year would not be surprised at any of these numbers. But they are much more surprising when you break them up into Defensive Back, Linebacker, and Defensive Line stats for each year. Here is what that looks like:

Sacks INT FF
2004
DB 9 15 7 31
LB 11 2 3 16
DL 20 1 2 23
40 18 12 Total = 70

2005
DB 4.5 10 9 23.5
LB 11.5 5 6 22.5
DL 16 1 3 20
32 16 18 Total = 66

2006
DB 1 5 4 10
LB 5 0 4 9
DL 13 1 3 17
19 6 11 Total = 36


Gregg Williams is known for using an aggressive blitzing defense so these numbers make sense. For instance, when our defense was considered to be at its peak (2004), the DBs and LBs combined for 47 DIP out of 70, or 67% of DIP. In 2005, when our defense was still very effective, the DBs and LBs combined for 46 DIP out of 66 total, or about 70% of DIP. Now in 2006, with the loss of Ryan Clark (FA), Walt Harris (FA), Pierson Prioleau (INJ), and even Sean Springs (INJ) for 7 games, the DBs struggled to produce, resulting in 10 DIP.

The LBs regressed as well with only 9 DIP. But the interesting thing is that the DL still managed a respectable 17 DIP, compared to 20 DIP in 2005 and 23 DIP in 2004. The DBs and LBs combined for only 53% of DIP in 2006, down from 70% in 2005 and 67% in 2004.

Many of us Skins fans have been wondering aloud about the lack of urgency the 'Braintrust' has displayed towards upgrading our Defensive Line this offseason. We only had five picks in this draft (only one first day pick) and yet we used one pick on a DB, two picks on LB, two picks on offense, and exactly zero picks on the DL. But perhaps Gibbs is not completely wrong when he says that our DL is just fine. Yes, Griffin is our only standout. Yes, neither Golston nor Carter is much of a force against the run. Yes, Griffin and Daniels are old and slowing down.

But this line still produced last year despite multiple injuries. According to the DIP index, they performed much better than both the DBs and LBs and were not far from their DIP production of the last two years when we had top ten defenses in the league. Plus, Andre Carter really did not settle in until late in the year when he was given fewer instructions and more freedom to simply play.

Looking at these stats, our DL may not have been our biggest problem last year. Our DBs and LBs had the biggest drop offs in performance. With an offseason that has included solid upgrades in the DBs (Landry, Smoot, and Macklin) and LBs (London Fletcher), perhaps our defense will return to form in Gregg Williams' creative blitz-happy schemes in 2007.

Even if you don't completely buy my argument, these statistics have to make you a little more at ease about our defense in the upcoming season.
-Harry

P.S. If people are going to argue that DBs and LBs aren't going to help with the run as much as a DL, I would agree. But our defensive yards/carry stats for the last three years make that point less relevant. In 2004, we gave up 3.1 yards/carry which was 1st in the league. In 2005, we gave up 4.1 yards/carry which was 21st in the league. In 2006, we gave up 4.5 yards/carry which was 25th in the league. Yet, in terms of total yards (tradition way to rank defenses) and points/game given up, our defenses ranked #3/#5 in 2004, #9/#9 in 2005, and #29/#27 in 2006. Though the yards/carry shot up from 2004 to 2005, our overall defense only slightly regressed. And when our yards/carry only slightly increased from 2005 to 2006, our overall defense plummeted. Therefore, with this (admittedly miniscule) sample, DIP was actually a far superior indicator of our overall defensive performance than our ability to stop the run (illustrated by yards/carry).

Here's the link...Another Great Guest Blog - Redskins Insider

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Redskins_P

You guys should really check out JLa's guest blog. Some guy who went by the named Sherrif Gonna Getcha (could it be our very own?) did a really nice breakdown on our defense. I know many might not agree, but he makes some really good points.




Here's the link...Another Great Guest Blog - Redskins Insider

Good read.

The one thing that really stood out to me last year was the lack of gang tackling. In 2005 you almost always saw guys swarming to the ball, last year we had way too many instances of shoddy tackling. Fletcher and Landry should help in the tackling dept. immediately.

[Redskins_P]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Good read.

The one thing that really stood out to me last year was the lack of gang tackling. In 2005 you almost always saw guys swarming to the ball, last year we had way too many instances of shoddy tackling. Fletcher and Landry should help in the tackling dept. immediately.

Very true. If theres one thing that you could point out from last year that really hurt defensively it was the poor tackling and it mainly came from the LB and DB positions. The D-line can only do so much.

[JDALY27]

Originally Posted by Redskins_P

You guys should really check out JLa's guest blog. Some guy who went by the named Sherrif Gonna Getcha (could it be our very own?) did a really nice breakdown on our defense. I know many might not agree, but he makes some really good points.




Here's the link...Another Great Guest Blog - Redskins Insider

I couldn't agree more. This really makes sense with all the numbers in your face! So on paper:

Taylor, Landry, Rogers, Spings / Smoot
Fletcher / Blades, Washington, Mcintosh / Marshall /

We are already going to be sick as hell! Look out NFL b/c the Skins are back and flying under the radar....

[Beemnseven]

The thing that's always bothered me about Williams' system is the almost total reliance on the secondary and linebackers for the pass rush. I know it all seemed to work fine in 2004, and to a lesser extent in '05.

The problem is that if your secondary isn't as talented or suffers from significant injuries, your pass rush goes to hell if the defensive line can't pick up the slack. That's why I continue to say that no matter the sophistication of a particular defense, you still have to be at least better than average along the front four.

Until they make some upgrades, even with Landry and Fletcher I think we could be in trouble.

[JDALY27]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

The thing that's always bothered me about Williams' system is the almost total reliance on the secondary and linebackers for the pass rush. I know it all seemed to work fine in 2004, and to a lesser extent in '05.

The problem is that if your secondary isn't as talented or suffers from significant injuries, your pass rush goes to hell if the defensive line can't pick up the slack. That's why I continue to say that no matter the sophistication of a particular defense, you still have to be at least better than average along the front four.

Until they make some upgrades, even with Landry and Fletcher I think we could be in trouble.

Landry will make more plays and create more turnovers then any lineman in the draft this year. Just wait and see rather than dark cloud....that's just my take.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by Beemnseven

The thing that's always bothered me about Williams' system is the almost total reliance on the secondary and linebackers for the pass rush. I know it all seemed to work fine in 2004, and to a lesser extent in '05.

It worked in his time with the Titans and Bills as well, and the roots of his scheme goes back to Buddy Ryan and the 46 which brought pressure from all over the field too. It may not be conventional, but it's also not a fad type of system either.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

It worked in his time with the Titans and Bills as well, and the roots of his scheme goes back to Buddy Ryan and the 46 which brought pressure from all over the field too. It may not be conventional, but it's also not a fad type of system either.

Yeah, I know his scheme isn't flavor of the month type stuff, but Buddy Ryan apparently found it important enough to build his defenses with top notch linemen like Dent, Hampton, Clyde Simmons, Jerome Brown and Reggie White.

You still have to have a decent front four. I know the coaches think everything is hunky-dorey with our guys, but we'll know for sure by August.

[70Chip]

Sherriff's piece is great. Top notch stuff. I would make this point about the yards per carry we give up. 3.1 in 2004 is superb. It means that teams simply couldn't run the ball. 4.1 in 2005 is okay. You're not stuffing people but you're not getting bulldozed either. 4.5 in 2006 puts you in dangerous territory. The .4 yards between 4.1 and 4.5 are far more significant than the 1 yard between 3.1 and 4.1. At some point, if the numbers keep going up, you pass a tipping point.

Think of it this way. If you went from throwing 40 TDs to 20 and then 10, the drop from 20 to 10 is much more devestating even though it's a numerically smaller decrease than going from 40 to 20.

I think what's significant is that the Redskins have gotten consistently worse and they should have done something to adress the negative trend after 2005.

[GoSkins!]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

Sherriff's piece is great. Top notch stuff. I would make this point about the yards per carry we give up. 3.1 in 2004 is superb. It means that teams simply couldn't run the ball. 4.1 in 2005 is okay. You're not stuffing people but you're not getting bulldozed either. 4.5 in 2006 puts you in dangerous territory. The .4 yards between 4.1 and 4.5 are far more significant than the 1 yard between 3.1 and 4.1. At some point, if the numbers keep going up, you pass a tipping point.

Think of it this way. If you went from throwing 40 TDs to 20 and then 10, the drop from 20 to 10 is much more devestating even though it's a numerically smaller decrease than going from 40 to 20.

I think what's significant is that the Redskins have gotten consistently worse and they should have done something to adress the negative trend after 2005.

You have to consider LB play when looking at the yards per carry. I think that we all saw how much worse it got with Pierce gone and Holdman playing. Arringtons presence on running down late in 2005 solidified the run defense. It is easy for me to believewhat I am being told by the skins talking heads. They think the DL is not to blame for the poor run defense and they acknowldege that the DE position could be improved but not with late round draft picks.

[Beemnseven]

Originally Posted by GoSkins!

You have to consider LB play when looking at the yards per carry. I think that we all saw how much worse it got with Pierce gone and Holdman playing. Arringtons presence on running down late in 2005 solidified the run defense. It is easy for me to believewhat I am being told by the skins talking heads. They think the DL is not to blame for the poor run defense and they acknowldege that the DE position could be improved but not with late round draft picks.

I went to NFL.com and added up all the tackles by the four starters in 2005 (Daniels, Griffin, Salave'a and Wynn) and they totalled 118. Last year, Daniels, Griff, Salave'a and Carter all got 127. So while the run defense statistically plummeted, the front four actually made more tackles.

I know stats can be deceiving with defensive linemen, but I do think your point about the linebackers slacking last year has some validity.