Raiders Pick Up Culpepper

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's unreasonable to expect Daunte to be the Daunte of 2004 this year in Oakland.

But lets say for sake of argument he is. How much does this help the Raiders over last year?

• The Raiders' point differential was -164 last season, good for about 2.7 "pythagorean wins" (pretty standard for a 2-14 team).
• In 2004, Culpepper was worth 136.4 "points" above replacement.
• In 2006, Raiders QBs were worth a combined 52.6 points below replacement.
• The difference is 189 points! That would have made the Raiders point differential +25 last season.
• That's roughly 9 pythagorean wins.
• A healthy Daunte Culpepper (albiet having a career year), is worth 7 wins to the Raiders over a 16 game season.

While completely unscientific, I guarentee no QB not named Peyton Manning has ever been the difference between 2-14 and 9-7 for his team. But that's how good this signing has the potential to be, assuming Culpepper is healthy.

Possible comeback player of the year award here if the Raiders go 8-8 or better.

I take it you're assuming that all else remains equal for the Raiders from 2006 to 2007, and therefore you'd be attributing all of the gains in wins to Duante.

But of course there have been a lot of other changes, Lane Kiffin being the biggest. Signings, draft classes, new coaches, and players flat out playing better or worse are all other ways for the Raiders to change their pythagorean wins this season.