Vince Young overrated?

[MTK]

By the way I should cite where I'm getting these numbers from

Vince Young: Situational Stats

Jason Campbell: Situational Stats

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

By the way I should cite where I'm getting these numbers from

Vince Young: Situational Stats

Jason Campbell: Situational Stats

A couple of things that bother me when looking at Campbell's stats:

-His second half rating is only 71.3, compared to 88.8 in the first half
-Also, in close games (margin of 0-7pts), his rating is only 68.6.
-In the 4th quarter he's only got a 68.3 rating
-In the 4th quarter with a lead of 7 or less it's only 59.9

Now granted we've only played 5 games and this isn't really an accurate measuring stick yet, but I don't like those numbers.

As far as VY is concerned, I think his rookie of the year award was deserving, and he led the Titans to a great second half last year. He's a winner and a leader, and I'm definitely not read to call him overrated.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GMScud

A couple of things that bother me when looking at Campbell's stats:

-His second half rating is only 71.3, compared to 88.8 in the first half
-Also, in close games (margin of 0-7pts), his rating is only 68.6.
-In the 4th quarter he's only got a 68.3 rating
-In the 4th quarter with a lead of 7 or less it's only 59.9

Now granted we've only played 5 games and this isn't really an accurate measuring stick yet, but I don't like those numbers.

Those are valid concerns, but you need to remember that Gibbs has taken the control out of Campbell's hands in those situations (for the most part). He's getting more and more confidence with the coaching staff, and as that happens, he will no longer HAVE to throw 3rd and longs most of the time in the 4th, he'll be getting chances to throw on 1st and 2nd downs too. I think those numbers are just too incomplete for him at this point because up until VERY recently he has not been the man Gibbs has wanted with the ball come the end of the game.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Those are valid concerns, but you need to remember that Gibbs has taken the control out of Campbell's hands in those situations (for the most part). He's getting more and more confidence with the coaching staff, and as that happens, he will no longer HAVE to throw 3rd and longs most of the time in the 4th, he'll be getting chances to throw on 1st and 2nd downs too. I think those numbers are just too incomplete for him at this point because up until VERY recently he has not been the man Gibbs has wanted with the ball come the end of the game.

I agree completely. Notice my disclaimer about only playing 5 games. Also, in a post I just made in the Jason "Red Zone" Cambpell thread, I also pointed out how he's gaining confidence in the eyes of the coaches. I was just saying that as of now, those #'s don't look too great.

Sometimes statistics are overrated, sometimes they aren't.

[RobH4413]

Originally Posted by GMScud

I agree completely. Notice my disclaimer about only playing 5 games. Also, in a post I just made in the Jason "Red Zone" Cambpell thread, I also pointed out how he's gaining confidence in the eyes of the coaches. I was just saying that as of now, those #'s don't look too great.

Sometimes statistics are overrated, sometimes they aren't.

The shorter the data, the more useless the statistics are.

As far as JC's stats. This is a small window... I'd be curious to see a nice graph showing his progress. Maybe I'll get bored and make one...

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by GMScud

I agree completely. Notice my disclaimer about only playing 5 games. Also, in a post I just made in the Jason "Red Zone" Cambpell thread, I also pointed out how he's gaining confidence in the eyes of the coaches. I was just saying that as of now, those #'s don't look too great.

Sometimes statistics are overrated, sometimes they aren't.

Very true. We agree.

Like Rob said, The shorter the data, the more inconsistant the stats.

Look at Young. It was thought that he had a high 4th quarter rating, but in fact, it's very low. Sure it's 90.9 during the last 5 games, but the previous 15 it's 70.5. That would average out to be somewhere around 75.6 over his career. Not impressive at all.

[SmootSmack]

Originally Posted by jsarno

Very true. We agree.

Like Rob said, The shorter the data, the more inconsistant the stats.

Look at Young. It was thought that he had a high 4th quarter rating, but in fact, it's very low. Sure it's 90.9 during the last 5 games, but the previous 15 it's 70.5. That would average out to be somewhere around 75.6 over his career. Not impressive at all.

But I think the point (or a point) to be taken from that is that he's showing improvement in that category. Which is what you want to see from a young QB

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by SmootSmack

But I think the point (or a point) to be taken from that is that he's showing improvement in that category. Which is what you want to see from a young QB

Yeah, that is very true. I'm an advocate of the comp% stat, and he has improved dramatically there.
However, while he's gone up in certain catagories, he's gone down in several as well.

If he had one bad game in the 4th...say he throws two int's next week in the 4th and ends up with a 35 rating, that would drop his rating to around 80 if not worse in the 4th. So while he is showing a temporary improvement in a couple catagories, his inconsistancies for his career might show that it's a fluke. Time will tell. But you are correct that he is showing improvement in certain catagories right now.

[jsarno]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

By the way I should cite where I'm getting these numbers from

Vince Young: Situational Stats

Jason Campbell: Situational Stats

Thanks for the links.
Did you check out his 2006 numbers? Vince Young: Situational Stats
He had only a 70.5 rating in the 4th last year.