Forget the Game, what about the F...ing INJURIES?!

[dgack]

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

[mheisig]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

That would be interesting data to have. It doesn't appear that NFL.com has any real access to it, if they even have a model for it.

I think there's also a tendency to overly stress the big-name, skill positions like WR, RB and QB and not pay enough attention to the less glamorous offensive line.

Our offensive line has been decimated. At one point the only original starter we had was Chris Samuels. That's almost unprecedented as far as I know. The Rams O-line has taken a big hit this year and look where they are.

I think you can evaluate skill position players on their individual merits. CP not doing well in open space beyond the LOS, Moss simply dropping everything that comes his way, those are individual skills to measure and analyze.

CP having a low YPC is effected by a huge number of variables, I'd argue the offensive line being the most important. JC's overall performance is obviously going to take a huge hit. He's fumbling a lot - why? Because he's getting hit a lot, which is the offensive line once again. Yeah he holds on a little too long and yeah he needs to just tuck that thing in when he feels pressure, but ultimately what do you expect when he's getting pressured all day long?

I'm rambling, but my point is I think maybe we underestimate that offensive line problems and the impact on every other aspect of the game.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'm going to try to do this because I'm pretty interested also. If I come up with something substancial, I'll open a thread for it.

So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.

How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dgack

So it's pretty easy to quantify the loss of production out of a back. On the defensive side, you should be able to quantify loss of production by taking the inverse (i.e., the loss of a negative force is a positive one). So big plays given up, takeaways, etc.

How to quantify the effects of an O-Line? Sacks, YPC average, anything else?

I'd have to compute the value for every player in a numerical way. It can be done of course, but there'd be a bit of subjectivity it in.

I wouldn't be able to do it for all teams, just the Redskins and a few others.

If you have a few teams you'd like me to compare to, just name em off.

[dgack]

I might be able to help run some of the numbers. What's your data source?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by dgack

I might be able to help run some of the numbers. What's your data source?

I'd probably use DPAR (Defense adjusted points above replacement) since Football Outsiders already scales their numbers to equal points in a football game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007

For the offensive lines I'd probably come up with a total value for the line, and attempt to assign a responsibility to each position, but that could get real messy real fast. OLs are always tough to apply numbers to.

I think you could find each players contribution if you averaged their four most recent seasons. That would give a good idea.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

I'd probably use DPAR (Defense adjusted points above replacement) since Football Outsiders already scales their numbers to equal points in a football game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007

For the offensive lines I'd probably come up with a total value for the line, and attempt to assign a responsibility to each position, but that could get real messy real fast. OLs are always tough to apply numbers to.

I think you could find each players contribution if you averaged their four most recent seasons. That would give a good idea.

OK, heres what I found on the injury report:

The injuries to the offensive line are costing us about -.35 yards per carry (thats a lot). The adjusted sack numbers don't really look any different.

Portis' injury that he's trying to play through is crippling him. Normally, he's good for about 20 pts (above replacement) in a season based on the average of his prior three seasons in Washington. This year, hes on pace to finish at about 5 pts (above replacement), well below the league average. It's impossible to tell exactly how much of that decline is due to offensive line and not injury, but the Redskins line ranks 18th in FO's adjusted line yards, but 30th in yards/carry (Houston, Chicago). What's killing our yards/carry is the lack of long 20+ yard runs, and obviously you can't put that on the offensive line. Once a back is in the secondary.

I'd like to run some pass pro numbers after the Pats game is factored in, but that's going to take me some time.

Carlos Rogers' injury is not lethal in terms of pass coverage, because Smoot's splits are nearly identical against the pass. Against the run however, Carlos will be sorely missed. The outside runs are a weak spot on our defense, and we may need to start bringing Landry up into the box again to have a chance to stop it. That could open the floodgates.

Rogers' injury will mean that the Redskins have a replacement level dime back now. I have yet to quantify the effect of a dime back on his defense, but considering that Smoot and Prioleau were playing well in the nickel/dime roles, it's going to be a BIG dropoff. I'd estimate half a game in terms of W/L.

So here's my estimation on how the Skins' record has been affected by those 4 injuries: roughly 1.5-2 games worse off, which is pretty sizable.

[Sheriff Gonna Getcha]

Originally Posted by dgack

I was just thinking it would be interesting to try and quantify in numerical terms the losses this team has sustained to key personnel throughout the end of last season and beginning of this one, as compared to any other team.

Perhaps the problem lies not in the number of injuries or even the specifics of who got injured, but that our talent isn't well distributed among the different strings of players.

Obviously first-stringers are supposed to be better than second-stringers, but it really does seem like we are a top-heavy team who has a huge dropoff in talent level (or experience, or both) beyond our starters. I'm sure this is true of many teams but it seems like the great ones, the successful ones, do not have nearly as much of a drop when players go out.

Indy, for example, lost Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes to free agency, Marvin Harrison to injuries, plus at least a few other notables on defense, to say nothing of any line players they may have had injuries. And I think they have managed to win a few games this year.

True enough. However, we are not Indy and JC is no Peyton Manning. For a team that relies on it's O-line to pound the rock, losing the starting right side of the line is devastating. Call it an excuse and say that we should have more depth if you like, but I cannot help but think that this team which ran the ball so well in 2005 and 2006 despite the lack of a passing attack is having a lot of woes because of its inability to run the ball behind a patchwork line.

[dgack]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

True enough. However, we are not Indy and JC is no Peyton Manning. For a team that relies on it's O-line to pound the rock, losing the starting right side of the line is devastating. Call it an excuse and say that we should have more depth if you like, but I cannot help but think that this team which ran the ball so well in 2005 and 2006 despite the lack of a passing attack is having a lot of woes because of its inability to run the ball behind a patchwork line.

Agreed -- I guess what I am saying is, given that we know we want to be a grind-it-out, smash mouth team, perhaps we have made the personnel mistake of putting most of our eggs into few baskets. Any of those key O-line personnel go out, and suddenly, our entire offense falls into disarray.

The Indy comparison was not meant to be a direct comparison to our team as we are vastly different, however -- it was meant to show how a team can lose people that are really key to their existing gameplan, and they either adapt a new plan and execute it, or other personnel step up and do a great job in relief.