Portis v. Betts: The Grass is Always Greener

[dgack]

Originally Posted by Sheriff Gonna Getcha

What exactly is making people say that Portis is wearing down? In 2004 and 2005 he was a stud (unless you don't consider 1,300+ and 1,500+ rushing seasons beastly), even if his ypc was not great in 2003. In 2006 the guy had a freak injury making a the kind of balls-out play that we expect of our players. In 2007, again the guy is getting hit in the backfield and people wonder about his production? PLEASE.

Is it possible that Portis is wearing down? Yes. Have we seen enough of Portis to make that conclusion? No. But, perhaps the 2.9 per carry guy will be better.

What's wearing him down is the fact that he carried the ball almost 350 times a season for back-to-back seasons. As I've said a number of times, his ypc is way, way, WAY down since leaving Denver, in part because we're trying to hammer a square peg into a round hole by forcing him into an offense that isn't well-designed for his body or talents. He's making it work by compensating with quantity, and that is taking its toll on his body.

Again, this effect is well known in fantasy football circles, but this is a case where the fantasy impact does correlate back to the real game because it directly speaks to a RB's durability and career longevity.

Here's are some of the articles on the topic:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2007 (this one isn't bad)
David Yudkin - RB Production After Seasons With 400+ Touches (Including Regular & Postseason) (more FF oriented than "real" NFL based)
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part One
Pro-football-reference.com blog » Running Back Overuse and Injuries, Part Two (Playoff Edition) (by far the best articles I've read on the phenomenon)
FootballDocs Fantasy Football - Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production (this one is old but it's interesting to see how their predictions panned out)