Campbell Questions

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by SC Skins Fan

Football Outsiders (which I must admit can be kind of hit and miss with their predictions) argues that the most important predictors of future success for QBs drafted in the first two rounds (apparently it gets a little tougher from there due to various factors) and passing percentage and number of starts. Their predictive software loves Jason Campbell, though they had to temper some of those predictions when they took into account it was Jason's first year starting, because of those factors.

At Auburn Jason's stats were:

- 2001 - 9 games - 89/142 62.7%
- 2002 - 11 games - 94/149 63.1%
- 2003 - 13 games - 181/293 61.8%
- 2004 - 13 games - 188/270 69.6%

and that is playing the SEC ... I try not to get too geeked, but I love the guy.

When Dave Lewin wrote the QB projection system he found that QB success rate was about 60% GS and 40% completion percentage in college stats.

However, taking his original work, it seems that based on the failures of Vince Young, Tim Couch, and of Alex Smith (three guys that the system had highly rated), and the relative success of JP Losman (who didn't complete a great % in college), I've decided that the system is pretty accurate, but is more accurate if it is weighed higher in terms of games started.

A guy who starts 45 games and completes 58% of his passes is far more valuable in my opinion than a guy who starts 31 games and completes 65% of his passes. Games started always has to be the first thing a scout looks at when grading the top tier draft prospects.

Anyway, this only goes to show that Jason Campbell should be even better over time.