F... gas prices

[Schneed10]

Screw it, I'll do the math for you. Which would you rather have:

$100,000 in revenue
$80,000 in expenses
$20,000 in profit (20% profit margin)

or

$500,000 in revenue
$450,000 in expenses
$50,000 in profit (10% profit margin)

If you said you'd take the $20,000 with a 20% margin, can I pretty pretty please play poker with you sometime?

[70Chip]

I doubt that increased demand is soley to blame for oil quadrupling in price. I think speculation is driving the increase as well. Hedge fund managers are now into oil big time. Even individuals are getting in for the ride. A friend of mine justified it by saying he had to recoup the losses he was experiencing at the pump. Money chases money. As more and more people are seeing the possibility of making money in commodities rather than stocks and bonds, the price only increases. Imagine if a bunch of moneyed investors suddenly all decided that baseball cards were a sure thing. Their sudden entry into the market would necessarily force the price of a Clemente rookie card through the roof. The question is, is this a permanent thing or at some point will gravity have it's affect. We need a crash badly. As quickly as the money went in, it will run for the exits if the price falls fast enough.

I think there are a few simple steps that could be taken to at least discourage new money from forcing up the price any further. The Democrats may serve useful here as their penchant for regulation would surely be helpful. Maria Cantwell of Washington is making this a pet issue. She's kind of a butter face but she has nice hair and seems relatively bright. It would be worth a try at any rate.

[JoeRedskin]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

I doubt that increased demand is soley to blame for oil quadrupling in price. I think speculation is driving the increase as well. Hedge fund managers are now into oil big time. Even individuals are getting in for the ride. A friend of mine justified it by saying he had to recoup the losses he was experiencing at the pump. Money chases money. As more and more people are seeing the possibility of making money in commodities rather than stocks and bonds, the price only increases. Imagine if a bunch of moneyed investors suddenly all decided that baseball cards were a sure thing. Their sudden entry into the market would necessarily force the price of a Clemente rookie card through the roof. The question is, is this a permanent thing or at some point will gravity have it's affect. We need a crash badly. As quickly as the money went in, it will run for the exits if the price falls fast enough.

I think there are a few simple steps that could be taken to at least discourage new money from forcing up the price any further. The Democrats may serve useful here as their penchant for regulation would surely be helpful. Maria Cantwell of Washington is making this a pet issue. She's kind of a butter face but she has nice hair and seems relatively bright. It would be worth a try at any rate.

Just recently read an article on the "oil bubble" comparing it to the "housing bubble". While there is speculation driving the price, there is an underlying increased demand from developing countries (particurlarly, as Schneed has repeatedly pointed out, India and China). Thus, while there may be some easing in the future as the market cools down, it is unlikely to "burst".

IMO, it appears to be a confluence of events and market forces that is making a resource, that had been vastly underpriced, reach its market price. It will probably overshoot and then ease back (my guess it ends up around 4.50). Prior to this latest spike, how many people (other than those who drove for a living) actually budgeted their weekly gas expenses? Doesn't that suggest to you that it may have been a bit underpriced?

The price now is beginning effect people and changing their habits - to me, that is an indication that it is reaching a price close to its free market level.

[BTW - Just to indicate how the gas prices are affecting us - now, b/c of our driving needs for commutes and such, we have actually added "gas" as a separate line item in our budget where previously it was part of discretionary spending.]

[70Chip]

Originally Posted by JoeRedskin

Just recently read an article on the "oil bubble" comparing it to the "housing bubble". While there is speculation driving the price, there is an underlying increased demand from developing countries (particurlarly, as Schneed has repeatedly pointed out, India and China). Thus, while there may be some easing in the future as the market cools down, it is unlikely to "burst".

IMO, it appears to be a confluence of events and market forces that is making a resource, that had been vastly underpriced, reach its market price. It will probably overshoot and then ease back (my guess it ends up around 4.50). Prior to this latest spike, how many people (other than those who drove for a living) actually budgeted their weekly gas expenses? Doesn't that suggest to you that it may have been a bit underpriced?

The price now is beginning effect people and changing their habits - to me, that is an indication that it is reaching a price close to its free market level.

[BTW - Just to indicate how the gas prices are affecting us - now, b/c of our driving needs for commutes and such, we have actually added "gas" as a separate line item in our budget where previously it was part of discretionary spending.]

I think it was definitely underpriced in the 90s when it was under a dollar. When you figure in Fed and State taxes, it was practically free. (I think oil was around $13 a barrel.) So, that was never going to last, but I don't think demand has increased proprtionately with the increase in price. I think there are other factors at work.

Wether or not to extract oil from ANWR has reminded me of a joke that the late Senator Howell Heflin of Alabama told on Ted Kennedy some while ago. Senator Kennedy was photographed on his boat with some young women and Heflin remarked, "I guess Senator Kennedy has changed his position on offshore drilling." Hilarious. Get well soon Ted. We want you live to be at least 100.

[saden1]

Originally Posted by 70Chip

I think it was definitely underpriced in the 90s when it was under a dollar. When you figure in Fed and State taxes, it was practically free. (I think oil was around $13 a barrel.) So, that was never going to last, but I don't think demand has increased proprtionately with the increase in price. I think there are other factors at work.

Did you just make the case for oil being overpriced or that it's practically free and possibly profitless?