Backup center discussion

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

LOL

I hope you were being purposefully sarcastic/ironic. Because this is what it says on Wiki:



Interesting link though. It has a fascinating discussion on random events, such as flipping a coin... or other gambling phenomenon.

Actually not really. While lots of variables factor into injuries- stretching, conditioning, smart play, etc- it's largely random and dumb luck. Not as much as so as flipping a coin, but close. Kinda like JC somehow not blowing out his knee in that preseason game because his foot didn't stick in the turf. Dumb luck. Given last year's miserable rash of injuries to a historically durable group of lineman, it would be pretty unprecedented if it repeated itself just one season later.

Sure there's no real science to it, but isn't wishful thinking what the offseason is all about?

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Actually not really. While lots of variables factor into injuries- stretching, conditioning, smart play, etc- it's largely random and dumb luck. Not as much as so as flipping a coin, but close. Kinda like JC somehow not blowing out his knee in that preseason game because his foot didn't stick in the turf. Dumb luck. Given last year's miserable rash of injuries to a historically durable group of lineman, it would be pretty unprecedented if it repeated itself just one season later.

Sure there's no real science to it, but isn't wishful thinking what the offseason is all about?

OK. But using the Law of Averages to say we're due for an injury-free season is bad reasoning, just making sure that kind of reasoning isn't creeping in here.

The Law of Averages says we should have an "average" injury season. Last year's ravage is in the past, and has no bearing on this year. We're not due for an injury-free year any more than we're due to repeat the ravage.

You're right in saying it's dumb luck. But that's why they call it "dumb" luck. It can't even itself out.

What we're really saying here is that last year we had an abnormally high number of games missed along the line. Chances are we won't have to endure that again, as it was a pretty rare event to be that ravaged. But that doesn't mean we should be injury free. The law of averages states that we should have an "average" number of games missed along the line.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

OK. But using the Law of Averages to say we're due for an injury-free season is bad reasoning, just making sure that kind of reasoning isn't creeping in here.

The Law of Averages says we should have an "average" injury season. Last year's ravage is in the past, and has no bearing on this year. We're not due for an injury-free year any more than we're due to repeat the ravage.

You're right in saying it's dumb luck. But that's why they call it "dumb" luck. It can't even itself out.

What we're really saying here is that last year we had an abnormally high number of games missed along the line. Chances are we won't have to endure that again, as it was a pretty rare event to be that ravaged. But that doesn't mean we should be injury free. The law of averages states that we should have an "average" number of games missed along the line.

Well, I never said we were due for a totally injury-free season. But I think the chance of repeating the rash of injuries in consecutive seasons is much more remote than just randomly have one such season. The Law of Averages talks about random events evening things out. I simply said that given how ravaged we were last season, it would be that much more unlikely for it to occur again. And the Law of Averages agrees with that, as an "average" amount of injuries this year would mean far less than last year for us.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GMScud

Well, I never said we were due for a totally injury-free season. But I think the chance of repeating the rash of injuries in consecutive seasons is much more remote than just randomly have one such season. The Law of Averages talks about random events evening things out. I simply said that given how ravaged we were last season, it would be that much more unlikely for it to occur again. And the Law of Averages agrees with that, as an "average" amount of injuries this year would mean far less than last year for us.

You, sir, are a subscriber to the gambler's fallacy. Out of respect for all things Warpath, I refuse to down THAT road again. But I will ask you this:

If you flip a coin and it lands on heads, what is the likelihood that it will land on heads on the NEXT flip?

If you answered anything other than 50%, you'd be wrong.

The fact that an event just occurred does nothing to change the probability of it occurring in the future.

You're right in saying that the probability of having two injury-ravaged seasons in a row is much lower than having one. But that's not the issue: the issue is will this ONE season coming up in 2008 be injury-ravaged? We're not looking at two at the same time, we're looking at one season. We're looking at the NEXT coin flip. What happened last season has no bearing, the odds remain the same.

The law of averages states that things even out. This does tend to be true, but only over TIME with large enough samples. Meaning if you look at the Skins over the next 30 seasons or so, we'll approach the average number of games missed. But we're talking about one season, about one coin flip. The odds remain the same.

The fact that we got so injured last year does not help us, nor does it hurt us, going into this season.

[Ade Jimoh Fan Club]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

You're right in saying that the probability of having two injury-ravaged seasons in a row is much lower than having one. But that's not the issue: the issue is will this ONE season coming up in 2008 be injury-ravaged? We're not looking at two at the same time, we're looking at one season. We're looking at the NEXT coin flip. What happened last season has no bearing, the odds remain the same.

Please note in the official warpath records that this is the first time I have ever disagreed with the very astute Schneedster.

However, I would argue that coming off an injury-ravaged year makes us MORE probable to have another one, since injuries are known to have set-backs and/or cause new injuries to occur.

It's like once you have heat-stroke, you're exponentially more likely to have it again. Once you're injured, you've very likely to be injured again.

By my math, the odds are 72.9% that we'll not have an injury-filled year. My cousin Vinny the Clam from Vegas confirmed this to be accurate.

I'm not happy about it, but the numbers don't lie.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by Ade Jimoh Fan Club

Please note in the official warpath records that this is the first time I have ever disagreed with the very astute Schneedster.

However, I would argue that coming off an injury-ravaged year makes us MORE probable to have another one, since injuries are known to have set-backs and/or cause new injuries to occur.

It's like once you have heat-stroke, you're exponentially more likely to have it again. Once you're injured, you've very likely to be injured again.

By my math, the odds are 72.9% that we'll not have an injury-filled year. My cousin Vinny the Clam from Vegas confirmed this to be accurate.

I'm not happy about it, but the numbers don't lie.

Yeah you're actually correct about this, because my argument is purely academic and mathematic in nature. It assumes that the onset of injury is entirely random. This of course is not true, as players like Rocky McIntosh who have degenerative knee conditions are certainly more susceptible to injury. So yeah, some lines are going to be more injury-prone than others.

But we're talking about the Redskins here, all of whom have shown an ability to play through a lot of pain and have been largely injury-free. I would argue that Jansen's two devastating injuries (achilles, then the ankle last year) were both freakish in nature and are in no way indicative of an injury trend. Last year, someone flat out rolled up on his ankle and turned it 90 degrees sideways, that would have broken even the most bionic of ankles. I can't recall RT ever having a triceps problem before last season, and I can't recall him missing much time for us before that. Rabach and Samuels have been on the field a ton the last few years.

So in my football opinion, I think the Skins have a decent chance at staying healthy this year, because by and large I think they're very durable. Broken bones tend to heal stronger than they were before a break, good news for Jansen. And RT has more than enough time to deal with the triceps. But from a purely academic standpoint, we're no more or less likely to stay healthy because of last year's debacle. Last year has nothing to do with this year from a mathematical standpoint, and from a football/medical standpoint, I think the guys are healed up enough to get back to being their durable selves.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

You, sir, are a subscriber to the gambler's fallacy. Out of respect for all things Warpath, I refuse to down THAT road again. But I will ask you this:

If you flip a coin and it lands on heads, what is the likelihood that it will land on heads on the NEXT flip?

If you answered anything other than 50%, you'd be wrong.

The fact that an event just occurred does nothing to change the probability of it occurring in the future.

You're right in saying that the probability of having two injury-ravaged seasons in a row is much lower than having one. But that's not the issue: the issue is will this ONE season coming up in 2008 be injury-ravaged? We're not looking at two at the same time, we're looking at one season. We're looking at the NEXT coin flip. What happened last season has no bearing, the odds remain the same.

The law of averages states that things even out. This does tend to be true, but only over TIME with large enough samples. Meaning if you look at the Skins over the next 30 seasons or so, we'll approach the average number of games missed. But we're talking about one season, about one coin flip. The odds remain the same.

The fact that we got so injured last year does not help us, nor does it hurt us, going into this season.

That's really all I was trying to say all along. And like I said, if we have an "average" injury season, it will be far less than last season. Maybe '07 was evening out how healthy we stayed in '05 when we won 11 games (including playoffs). I wasn't trying to imply we'd be injury-free in '08 because of '07. But the Law of Averages is in our favor in the health department compared to last season.

As far as the gambler's fallacy, I guess it's a good thing I don't bet. I understand what you mean as far as probabilities are concerned. I'm not trying to take the Warpath down a road of flawed logic or anything. Trust me, I'm not that complicated.

[Schneed10]

Originally Posted by GMScud

That's really all I was trying to say all along. And like I said, if we have an "average" injury season, it will be far less than last season. Maybe '07 was evening out how healthy we stayed in '05 when we won 11 games (including playoffs). I wasn't trying to imply we'd be injury-free in '08 because of '07. But the Law of Averages is in our favor in the health department compared to last season.

As far as the gambler's fallacy, I guess it's a good thing I don't bet. I understand what you mean as far as probabilities are concerned. I'm not trying to take the Warpath down a road of flawed logic or anything. Trust me, I'm not that complicated.

OK yeah I think we're on the same page. It's just the math and probabilities discussion wandered into my area of expertise, so I went apeschneed on it. My bad.

Here's to the Skins staying healthy and mauling D-linemen in 2008. Let's just pray a little harder for Rabach.

[GMScud]

Originally Posted by Schneed10

OK yeah I think we're on the same page. It's just the math and probabilities discussion wandered into my area of expertise, so I went apeschneed on it. My bad.

Here's to the Skins staying healthy and mauling D-linemen in 2008. Let's just pray a little harder for Rabach.

Apeschneed on it... LOL! Good stuff.

Cheers man. And yes, Rabach's health is one of the most important things for our team this year.