Why the low expectations from the pre-season mags?

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by TheMalcolmConnection

So Philly bringing in one DB and McNabb being healthy makes them possible favorites for the NFCE? I just don't see it.

I don't even think McNabb matters. This year, we can just refer to him as "Philadelphia QB". Whomever it is McNabb/Kolb/Garcia, pretty much anyone but AJ Feeley will be successful in that offense. Successful as in above average, like last year.

Here's some interesting stats from last year:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Football analysis and NFL stats for the Moneyball era - Authors of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Washington and Philadelphia had the exact same DVOA, the exact same strength of schedule, and were pretty much just as consistent from week to week. We split against them last year. The ONLY difference is that we won 1 more game than they did, despite that they had a bit better of a point differential (though that difference was pretty much just luck of the draw).

Point being: any 'gap' between the Redskins and Eagles last year is a figment of ones imagination. They were two equally matched teams.

Anyway, they were one of the youngest teams in the league last year, and we were one of the oldest. Which means that if all other things are equal, they will get better, and we will get worse.

Are all other things equal? Not really. They signed one of the best (albeit somewhat overrated) CBs in the NFL, which makes them even better. We didn't make any FA moves, and got a year older at every position but receiver.

Now, we do have an ace in the hole this year: Jason Campbell's development. He was an above average passer last year, if he can leapfrog McNabb and become one of the best ten passers in this league, we probably finish ahead of the Eagles anyway.

I don't want to crap all over McNabb: the guy is a good quarterback, but I think the Eagles realize that McNabb is already in or past his prime, and as long as he's their quarterback, they can't really improve any more on the offensive side of the ball. They can simply try to sustain.

The next time that the Eagles are out of the playoff hunt (Dec. 2009?), I think it will be Kolb's turn.