Mid July Predictions:

[MTK]

Da Bears with 11 wins?! Wow

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

Da Bears with 11 wins?! Wow

It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.

[freddyg12]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.

The Bears D fell off dramatically last year, not just statistically but also in terms of their whole personna. They lost their swagger & intimidation. Having T. Harris healthy will of course make a huge difference, but he's had his problems staying healthy for a whole year. I think they're still a good unit, but I don't know if they're good enough to make up for a weak O that lost its top receivers & has a few qb's that are all equally avg. - poor.

Their top wr might be B Loyd for god's sake!

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by freddyg12

The Bears D fell off dramatically last year, not just statistically but also in terms of their whole personna. They lost their swagger & intimidation. Having T. Harris healthy will of course make a huge difference, but he's had his problems staying healthy for a whole year. I think they're still a good unit, but I don't know if they're good enough to make up for a weak O that lost its top receivers & has a few qb's that are all equally avg. - poor.

Their top wr might be B Loyd for god's sake!

I wouldn't say it was that dramatic...over the second half of the year, only the Chargers were more dominant on defense.

This link argues that the Bears D and Redskins D last year were roughly equivalent, with the Bears having a much stronger run defense, and the Redskins significantly better at the pass. That makes sense to me.

I guess my point is this: If the significant dropoff led them to the top quarter in defense, they would have to dropoff even further to be worse than last year. I'm betting (strongly) that the Bears D will be at or better than it was last year, considering the core is still around, and in it's prime. Plus: 100% less Archuleta.

And I wouldn't worry about B. Lloyd being their number one receiver. They still have some warm, non-Lloyd bodies

[MTK]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

It's more of an effect of "how bad can one predict the offense to play".

Sure, the team doesn't seem to be interested in finding a competent QB, but all Grossman has to do is have a career year, and that offense is in the top 20.

Plus, there are only a few certainties in the league, and one of those certainties is that teams will struggle to move the ball against Chicago's perennially dominant Defense and Special Teams.

So I could see the Bears winning anywhere between 9 and 12 games. They won 7 last year, so to expect them to win fewer than that would be to predict QB play at a worse level than during the 2006 season: I just can't see that happening.

So yeah, I penciled them in at 11 wins, but 9 or 10 is essentially saying the same thing: They'll be better than last year, and not quite as good as in 2006.

A bit of a tall task to me. If he lasts the entire season as the starter I'd be surprised. Plus the cupboard seems pretty bare at WR and they will have a rookie at RB. I can see their D bouncing back, I'm just not sure that will be enough though.

[GTripp0012]

Originally Posted by Mattyk72

A bit of a tall task to me. If he lasts the entire season as the starter I'd be surprised. Plus the cupboard seems pretty bare at WR and they will have a rookie at RB. I can see their D bouncing back, I'm just not sure that will be enough though.

No doubt that my 11 win prediction is based on a career year from a QB. And I don't disagree with you that it's a fallacious thing to base a prediction on.

But when you consider that a career year from Grossman is about 3,500 yards, a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (say 20 to 12), a completion percentage of a measly 58%, and about 6.7-7.0 yards/attempt, that seems somewhat reasonable (if unsustainable) for Grossman. It's important to remember that while Grossman isn't good at all, if you compare the first 5 years of his career to Jon Kitna, who a lot of people argue is the top QB in the NFC North right now, you would take Grossman in a runaway. It wasn't until he started pushing 30 that Kitna started producing results that weren't horrific.

I would totally reconsider my prediction if Orton wins the job...because those numbers seem somewhat unobtainable for the neckbeard, but Grossman could do it with a steady diet of passes down the middle of the field to like...Marty Booker, and Devin Hester occasionally getting behind the defense.

It won't be pretty, but then again, no game in that division will be with the quality of QB that Grossman will be facing.

[MTK]

Originally Posted by GTripp0012

No doubt that my 11 win prediction is based on a career year from a QB. And I don't disagree with you that it's a fallacious thing to base a prediction on.

But when you consider that a career year from Grossman is about 3,500 yards, a 1.5 to 1 TD/INT ratio (say 20 to 12), a completion percentage of a measly 58%, and about 6.7-7.0 yards/attempt, that seems somewhat reasonable (if unsustainable) for Grossman. It's important to remember that while Grossman isn't good at all, if you compare the first 5 years of his career to Jon Kitna, who a lot of people argue is the top QB in the NFC North right now, you would take Grossman in a runaway. It wasn't until he started pushing 30 that Kitna started producing results that weren't horrific.

I would totally reconsider my prediction if Orton wins the job...because those numbers seem somewhat unobtainable for the neckbeard, but Grossman could do it with a steady diet of passes down the middle of the field to like...Marty Booker, and Devin Hester occasionally getting behind the defense.

It won't be pretty, but then again, no game in that division will be with the quality of QB that Grossman will be facing.

Fair enough, that's what's fun about these because at this point it's anybody's guess.

[jdlea]

AFC:
East
Pats (12)
Bills (9)
Jets (6)
Fins (5)

North
Steelers (11)
Browns (10)
Bengals (8) Marvin gets let go
Ravens (5)

South
Jags (11)
Colts (10)
Texans (9)
Titans (9)

West
Chargers (12)
Raiders (8)
Chiefs (7)
Broncos (4) and Shanahan gets the axe

NFC:
East
Cowboys (11)
Skins (10)
Eagles (8)
Giants (4)

North
Vikings (9)
Packers (8)
Lions (6)
Bears (5)

South
Saints (12)
Bucs (9)
Panthers (7)
Falcons (2) concerned about Ryan or whoever starts at QB

West
Cardinals (9)
Rams (9)
Seahawks (8) I think they fall way off without a running game
Niners (5)

AFC Championship: Chargers over Jags
NFC Championship: Saints over Vikings

Super Bowl: Saints over Chargers

[ArtMonkDrillz]

Off the top of my head, based off of very little except for gut reaction to last year and what I've heard this offseason.

NFC East
1. Dallas (vomit)
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Philly
NFC North
1. Minnesota
2. Detriot
3. Green Bay
4. Chicago
NFC South
1. New Orleans
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. Atlanta
NFC West
1. Seattle
2. San Fransico
3. St. Louis
4. Arizona

AFC East
1. New England
2. Buffalo
3. New York
4. Miami
AFC North
1. Cleveland
2. Pittsburg
3. Cincinatti
4. Baltimore
AFC South
1. Jacksonville
2. Indy
3. Houston
4. Tennessee
AFC West
1. San Diego
2. Oakland
3. Denver
4. Kansas City

Wild Card Round
NYG @ Seattle; Washington @ NO; Buffalo @ Cleveland; Pitt @ Jax
Divisional Playoffs
Washington @ Dallas; Seattle @ Minn; Jax @ New England; Cleveland @ SD
Championships
Minn @ Dallas; SD @ New England
Super Bowl
New England vs Minnesota